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22 Sep 2020
Interims – guidance reiterated. We reintroduce forecast & move to Buy
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Interims – guidance reiterated. We reintroduce forecast & move to Buy
- Published:
22 Sep 2020 -
Author:
Singer CM Team -
Pages:
4 -
Alliance Pharma’s H1 interims are relatively robust, with trading conforming to recent commentary. Whilst there has been an impact in some areas of the business in H1 (Prescription Medicine) as expected per the trading update in July, the rest of the business particularly Kelo-cote, has proved very resilient and highlights the defensive nature of the business, and underlying adj. PBT (excl. amortisation and impairment charges) was solid in H1 2020 at £16.3m (+7% YoY). We anticipate some push and pulls in H2 2020 but net we anticipate a better performance as demand recovers, and the Board have reiterated that full year results are expected to be in line with market expectations. The reinstatement of an interim dividend of 0.536p signals confidence in this. We have used today’s announcement to reinstate our forecasts, which are broadly in line with guidance and consensus. Our new FY’20 forecasts are c.10% below our previous estimates prior to the Covid-19 pandemic with YoY revenue and adj. EBITDA growth rates of -6.5% and -10.1%. We forecast a return to growth in FY’21 and have used the opportunity to introduce our FY’22 numbers looking for ‘see-through’ revenue of £153.2m and adj. EBITDA of £41.5m. Our main ongoing concern is that growth is highly dependent on Kelo-cote, a situation that has been augmented during the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Group needs to turn once again to deal-making to supplement organic growth to grow the portfolio. On our revised estimates, our new DCF/Peer group multiple derived target price is 91p/share and we move from Hold to Buy.