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  • 09 Nov 18

Most popular equity research this week | 5 - 9 Nov

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Companies: BNOCMHRE/SCEELCOARBBSIXHTONAPHMURITVAGYEMECLIGZOOGDRDPPOPMAVOCSHDNLOXBKOOVHAYDGMDNSFREDXVALGTLYW7LRREPHPPURPAVCTMCLVTABURDISH
  • 06 Nov 18

THE MONTHLY November 2018

In addition to Hardman’s monthly analysis of client stocks, the thorny issue of market disruption – a popular theme currently - is also addressed. In a wide-ranging article, Hardman’s utilities analyst, Nigel Hawkins, assesses the impact that market disruption has already made. In some sectors, notably telecoms and aviation, market disruption has been apparent for many years, as the rise of Vodafone, Ryanair and easyJet demonstrates. However, in some sectors, such as oil and housebuilding, structural changes have been modest – the dominance of the big players endures. For investors, there is real interest in those sectors where changes are underway. The UK groceries market, which may shortly become a duopoly, is a case in point. And, intriguingly, who knows if there is a company currently languishing in AIM, which will attain a £50bn market valuation within the next decade?

Companies: OPM AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT DISH BNO BUR CMH CLIG CSH DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PHP RE/ REDX SCE SIXH TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 18 Oct 18

Unexpected Phase III trial outcome

Diurnal (DNL) is a commercial-stage specialty pharmaceutical company focused on diseases of the endocrine system. Its two lead products target rare conditions where medical needs are currently unmet, with the aim of building a long-term ‘Adrenal Franchise’. Alkindi is being launched in key EU markets, and this was expected to be followed by Chronocort. However, DNL has received the headline data from its European Phase III trial in CAH, which showed that Chronocort was not superior to standard-of-care, thereby failing to meet its primary end-point. Given the strong Phase II data, this outcome was unexpected. The full data set is now being analysed.

Companies: Diurnal Group
  • 04 Oct 18

THE MONTHLY October 2018

We are in the midst of the Conference season for political parties and trade unions in Britain. We all have a lot on our minds, with generational constitutional issues to the fore, but these have come to the fore after many years of concerns building up about citizens’ ‘place in the world’.

Companies: OPM AGY ARBB AVCT DISH BNO BUR CMH CLIG DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PHP RE/ REDX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 04 Oct 18

First commercial revenues

Diurnal (DNL) is a commercial-stage specialty pharmaceutical company focused on diseases of the endocrine system. Its two lead products target rare conditions where medical needs are currently unmet, with the aim of building a long-term ‘Adrenal Franchise’. Following approval from the European Commission, Alkindi is being launched in key EU markets through DNL’s own commercial infrastructure, starting with Germany and now launched in the UK. Additional territories will follow during 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, the company is pushing forward with Alkindi and Chronocort clinical trials in the US. Cash at the end of the period was £17.3m.

Companies: Diurnal Group
  • 03 Sep 18

The Monthly September 2018

September’s Hardman Monthly features an article from guest contributor, Tim Ward. Tim is the Chief Executive of the Quoted Companies Alliance (QCA), an organisation that champions the interests of small to mid-size quoted companies.

Companies: OPM AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO CMH DNL EVG GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL W7L

  • 03 Aug 18

Most popular equity research this week | 30 Jul - 3 Aug

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  • 01 Aug 18

The Monthly

Hardman & Co’s analysts have direct experience of uncovering accounting frauds. In this article, Steve Clapham outlines why we might see a surge in them over the next few years. He is engaged by institutions to teach their fund managers and analysts how to identify risks brought about by such frauds. Hardman & Co is pleased to offer this service to private investors.

Companies: OPM AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL W7L OXB

  • 29 Jun 18

Most popular equity research this week | 25-29 Jun

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Companies: BNOSEED4T4CMHRE/SCEARBBSIXHTONAPHMURAGYCLIGHMLHINLGDRTRXSCLPCOSOPMAVODNLOXBKOOVRDTIMOFFXNIPTABZANSFREDXEVGVALGTLYPHPNXRAVCTMCLBUR
  • 29 Jun 18

The Monthly

We have analysed every IPO on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) between January 2015 and February 2018. Our analysis proves that, as expected, liquidity does dry up after float. The scale varies between markets and sectors.

Companies: OPM AGY ARBB AVCT BNO CMH COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SIXH TRX TON VAL W7L OXB

  • 08 Jun 18

Most popular equity research this week | 28 May - 8 Jun

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Companies: BNOCMHRE/SCEARBBSIXHPHTMTONVP/APHMURAGYSXXALTCLIGINLGDRTRXSCLPCOSKWSOPMAVODNLOXBRFXKOOVNIPTABZANSFREDXEVGVALGTLYPHPAVCTMCLBURPLUSVLTY
  • 04 Jun 18

The Monthly

Hardman & Co recently welcomed Milan Radia to our roster of established, industry expert analysts. Milan has 25 years of equity market experience at major investment banks and in asset management, and has worked on many high-profile successful IPOs. In 2017, he was ranked the No.1 earnings estimator in the UK for his sector in the Thomson Starmine Awards. Milan has also been techMARK Analyst of the Year and achieved top three Institutional Investor sector rankings for his coverage of the software and telecoms sectors. In our lead article this month he gives an insight into his thinking on some key themes in the sector.

Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF NIPT PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL OXB

  • 15 May 18

Small Cap Tea

Strongbow Exploration (TSX:SBW) intends to dual list on AIM. Holds rights to the South Crofty underground tin mine ("South Crofty"), a former producing tin mine located in the towns of Pool and Camborne, Cornwall . The project is estimated to require the Company to raise £25 million over the next 18 months to progress to a production decision. Offer TBS. Due June. Maestrano Group, a software company with operations in Australia (main country of operation), the UK, US and the UAE, is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected late May. Yew Grove REIT—newly formed Company will pursue its investment objective by investing in a diversified portfolio of Irish commercial property. Offer TBA. Due Late May Team17 Group -video games label and creative partner for independent developers. Since 2014, delivered a revenue CAGR of 69% (31 December 2015 to 31 December 2017), with revenues of £29.6m and Adjusted EBITDA of £12.9m. Offer TBA Serinus Energy -international upstream oil and gas exploration and production company. Its principal assets are located in Romania (development phase) and Tunisia (production phase). Raising c.£10m at 15p. Due 18 May. Mkt cap £32.6m

Companies: NYR FOG SYM TPOP VLS MYXR TENG CAKE DNL

  • 04 May 18

Most popular equity research this week | 30 Apr - 4 May

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  • 02 May 18

The Monthly

Prior to the financial crisis of 2008/09, it was widely believed in the stock market that certain sectors – most notably utilities, pharmaceuticals, food retailing and tobacco – were far less vulnerable to market downturns.

Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF NIPT PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL OXB

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Diurnal Group. We currently have 44 research reports from 3 professional analysts.

Open
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Volume
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Range Today
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52 Week
28.5/214p
Market Cap
£17.8m
Enterprise Value
£103.5m
Pension Liability
£0m
# Shares
61.3m
Latest PE (hist)
Div Yield

Latest News/RNS

(more news)
Date Source Announcement
18Oct18 07:15 EQS Hardman & Co Research: Diurnal Group (DNL): Unexpected Phase III trial outcome
17Oct18 07:00 RNS Update on late-stage development pipeline
08Oct18 16:00 RNS Posting of Annual Report and AGM Notice
08Oct18 14:45 RNS SMC Approves The Use of Alkindi
08Oct18 07:00 RNS Headline Data for Chronocort European Phase III
05Oct18 07:00 RNS First patients enrolled in US Chronocort Phase III
20Sep18 07:00 RNS Results for the year ended 30 June 2018
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  • 23 Oct 18

Quarterly Research Outlook

The June IPO of Knights Group Holdings, a Top-100 regional law firm, marked the fifth entrant to the burgeoning UK-listed legal sector. Following recent expansion of our coverage across all five listed legal firms, complemented by coverage of three broader support services peers with exposure to the sector, we revisit and build upon our views on this rapidly evolving sector.

Companies: ARS GTLY GENL KEYS KGH MNO RBGP TWD 7DIG ABBY AMS AMER ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPM FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KEYS KGH LAM MACF MNO MKLW NAH OXIG PCA PKG CAKE PDG RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZTF

  • 07 Nov 18

International brands driving performance

Alliance Pharma (APH) is a profitable, cash-generative, specialty pharma business. The proportion of sales generated from higher margin international star brands is rising rapidly, and will be boosted by the recent acquisition of Nizoral in APAC, and UK approval and launch of Xonvea for nausea and vomiting in pregnancy, where conservative management has failed. Investment behind these brands together with compliance with new regulatory directives will limit short term growth but positions the company well for the medium term. APH is cash-generative allowing it to pay down debt at a fast rate. Meanwhile, it offers a dividend yield of 2.0%.

Companies: Alliance Pharma
  • 07 Nov 18

Continuing progress in a receptive market

Following a 15-month financial period to March 2018 these interim results include a full six months contribution from Vocare (acquired 24 October 2017). Progress has been made with existing contracts being renewed/extended and new contracts won. The Group continues to refine and reorganise Vocare’s operations and procedures which were deemed by management to be inadequate post-acquisition and already much has been achieved. The buy & build strategy remains in place and the Group is very well placed financially with £9m of net cash still on the balance sheet (over 80% of the current market cap). We make no changes to our forecasts which see a continued build in EBITDA and a move into pre-tax profit in FY2019.

Companies: Totally
  • 09 Nov 18

Oxford BioMedica - Diversified strategy showing its strength

Strong operational momentum at Oxford BioMedica (OXB), as evidenced by its interim maiden operating profit of £9.4m (vs a loss of £2.2m in H117), highlights the strength in the company’s diversified business model. We continue to expect ongoing growth in the top line, driven in the near term by the commercial ramp-up of Kymriah (Novartis), the progression of Bioverativ’s haemophilia products to the clinic and the rapid advancement of its partnered products with Orchard and Axovant. We note that Immune Design’s CMB305 clinical programme has been halted, but forecast that the operational and financial impact on OXB will be minimal. OXB has transitioned three new preclinical assets into its pipeline: OXB-204 (Ophthalmology-LCA10), OXB-208 (Ophthalmology- RP1) and OXB-103 (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis). Additionally, OXB has announced the expansion of its lentiviral manufacturing capacity with a fourth facility. We value OXB at £632m vs £614m previously.

Companies: Oxford Biomedica
  • 01 Nov 18

Share & share alike

Global equity markets in October reverted to a pattern that seen in the past – sharp falls and increased volatility. The usual reasons of Brexit uncertainty, the impact of global trade tariffs and heightened geo-political worries and a raft of disappointing Q3 results in the US & UK punctured some of the market optimism. Both countries’ markets have now surrendered their progress year to date. The UK Budget helped things to stabilise here but continuing volatility seems likely. In Share News & View we comment upon Bloomsbury, Braemar*, Location Sciences*, Nektan*, PCF*, Tricorn* and Warpaint*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN W7L

  • 26 Jun 18

Delivering on strategic and financial targets

BMK delivered a 9% reported increase in sales in H1’18 despite FX headwinds (up 17% at constant exchange rates) to £75.7m, together with a 91% increase in adjusted EBITDA. This was driven by strong performance in Genetics and Advanced Nutrition and a higher margin product mix in these divisions. The results were accompanied by a confident message that the growth strategy is delivering, with FY18 forecasts on track.

Companies: Benchmark
  • 21 Mar 18

Modest forecast changes; remain at Hold

Anpario’s full year results highlighted a period of strong growth with momentum reportedly continuing into 2018. The group remains focused on building strong commercial relationships with end users and we expect the initiatives to help the group deliver our 11% sales growth estimate in 2018. We make modest adjustments to our forecasts this morning and increase our Target Price by 2p to 434p. We remain at Hold.

Companies: Anpario
  • 12 Sep 18

Share & share alike

Here we go again – the company reporting season is gathering pace. The MPC is likely to leave rates unchanged although expectations still remain for an increase next year. The UK economy expanded at a faster pace in July helped by the weather and better retail sales. General sentiment continues to be impacted by tariff concerns, combined with Brexit uncertainty. As Table 1 shows, all major indices have fallen over the last month. In Share News & Views, we comment on AorTech*, Bonhill*, DeepMatter*, EU Supply* James Fisher, Haynes, Hunting , Location Sciences*, Marshall Motor and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BMS CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ GETB LSAI PCF SNX TCN W7L

  • 09 Nov 18

Circassia Pharmaceuticals - Joining the dots

Circassia’s recent interims demonstrated 55% y-o-y revenue growth to £28.4m and a 75% R&D expense reduction (to £6.9m from £27.2m in H117) while growing the commercial infrastructure that now includes China. Investors should see a path to profitability, but we note recent licensing opportunities in the respiratory therapeutic area could accelerate this.

Companies: Circassia Pharmaceuticals
  • 18 Mar 16

Acquisition of Putney adds growth, scale and value

In our opinion, the $200m acquisition of Putney looks a very good deal and should add considerably both to medium term growth prospects and Dechra’s strategic value. We upgrade our FY17/FY18 EPS forecasts by 13% and 18% respectively and see scope for further upgrade potential as pipeline products launch over the next few years. We upgrade to Buy with a new TP of 1300p and continue to see Dechra as a core mid cap holding.

Companies: Dechra Pharmaceuticals
  • 14 Feb 18

Strong results as another Advair generic bites the dust in the US

GSK’s Q4 results were ahead of our as well as the street expectations. Forex had a negative impact of 3ppts on sales and 4ppts on adjusted EPS. All segments outperformed sequentially, but vaccines stood out with 9% growth (vs flat Q3). The main drivers included HIV in pharma, flu and meningitis in vaccines and international markets in the consumer health business. Management maintained interest in consumer health assets but ruled out a compromise on the pharma focus.

Companies: GlaxoSmithKline
  • 27 Mar 18

Novartis divests its consumer health stake

Novartis is exercising its put option to sell its 36.5% stake in the consumer health JV with GSK for $13bn (£9.2bn) in cash. GSK will now become the full owner of the business, which was formed as part of the three-part deal between GSK and Novartis in 2015. The business generated sales of £7.8bn and a reported operating margin of 17.7% in 2017. For 2018, management expects a low single-digit revenue growth, impacted negatively by the undercurrent of divestments, generics and GST in India (all three factors pulling down 1.5ppts from the 2017 growth), although from a longer term perspective, management reiterated its 2020 target of low-to-mid single-digit revenue CAGR. Management has maintained its 2022 operating profit margin target of ‘mid-20s’.

Companies: GlaxoSmithKline
  • 25 Apr 18

SFX-01 – Anticipating Two Positive Phase 2 Read-outs in 2018

Phase 2 trial ‘STEM’ in metastatic breast cancer: With 18 out of the 60 patients in the trial having been dosed as of December 2017, an interim read-out is expected this quarter followed by final topline results in H2’2018E. A compassionate use programme, which allows patients to stay on the drug post trial end, has already been implemented.

Companies: Evgen Pharma
  • 27 Apr 18

Strong pound wipes out growth as pricing woes hit respiratory

GSK’s otherwise decent Q1 performance was spoilt by currency – the CER revenue growth of 4% was offset by negative forex of 6%, culminating into a decline of 2% at reported level to £7.2bn. All revenue growth numbers at CER unless specified otherwise. Both pharma and consumer health grew by 2% to ~£4bn and ~£2bn, respectively, while vaccine shot up by 13% to £1.2bn. The main highlights of the quarter include a weak respiratory business, impressive uptake of the shingles vaccine, Shingrix, and a sombre performance in the consumer healthcare business. Geographically, the US led the growth at 7%, followed by international regions at 4%, while Europe came in flat. Reported gross profit margin improved by 90bp, but this was offset by an accounting charge of £495m pertaining to the revaluation of the liability for the consumer healthcare put option of Novartis. In effect, the reported operating performance declined by 15% at CER to £1.2bn, although adjusted operating profit improved by 9% to £1.9bn, thanks to the cost containment measures at all levels. Guidance for 2018 has been maintained – flat to 3% decline in EPS if the generics of Advair hit the US market by the mid-year, otherwise 4-7% growth.

Companies: GlaxoSmithKline
  • 02 Jul 18

H1 Review

Best Ideas - 2018 H1 Review

Companies: SAA VP/ GLE AMO IOM HSP CVSG EKF PGIT VRP RLM AVG SOG DNLM SFR YU/ CBP