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  • 03 Sep 19

THE MONTHLY September 2019

The challenges associated with value creation drive all investors. Any investment professional is eager to make their mark by picking organisations that are able to deliver superior returns. Increasingly investors look into how organisations are governed and how effective the top decision-making bodies of organisations really are. In this white paper, we shed light on research findings and reveal the seven hallmarks of effective boards. The seven hallmarks are proven to create more effective boards and are set to be the next lever in the value creation process. Better Boards has created advanced board evaluation tools designed to motivate and inspire and above all, contribute to superior value creation.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VTA W7L

  • 01 Aug 19

THE MONTHLY August 2019

The introduction of IFRS 2 in 2004 generated considerable debate about the best approach for handling ‘share-based payments’ (SBP). While it is clearly a cost to shareholders, which should be included in the statutory reporting lines through the P&L account, the question arose as to whetherit should be part of our underlying EBIT calculation.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VAL VTA W7L

  • 02 Jul 19

THE MONTHLY July 2019

When advisers first start looking at business relief (BR) products, there is much to take in: the rules governing such products; the investment strategies being used; and what the investment risk is. It is easy to lose sight of the fact that, for non-AIM products, the investment is being made directly into a company or partnership, rather than a fund. It is, therefore, essential that governance is part of the diligence process.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY KOOV LWRF MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX RMDL STX SIXH TRX TON SHED VAL VTA W7L

  • 04 Jun 19

THE MONTHLY June 2019


Companies: AZN AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR PCA PHP RE/ REDX STX SIXH TON SHED VAL VTA W7L

  • 25 Apr 19

Clarity for Chronocort regulatory pathway

Diurnal (DNL) is a commercial-stage specialty pharmaceutical company focused on diseases of the endocrine system. Its two lead products are targeting rare conditions where medical need is currently unmet, with the aim of building a long-term ‘Adrenal Franchise’. The first product, Alkindi®, is being launched in key EU markets, and this was expected to be followed by the adult version, Chronocort®. After unexpected Phase III results, positive feedback from the EMA has cleared the path for regulatory submission of Chronocort for adult CAH in Europe before the end of 2019, and allowed DNL to revise the primary endpoint in the protocol for the US Phase III trial.

Companies: Diurnal Group
  • 24 Apr 19

Small Cap Feast

Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m. Loungers plc—the operator of 146 café/bar/restaurants across England and Wales under the Lounge and Cosy Club brands, announces its intention to seek admission on AIM, offer to raise £61.6m at 200p with market cap of £185m, expected 29 April 2019. SDX Energy plc—a North Africa focused oil and gas company, announces its intention to complete a Canadian plan of arrangement under section 192 of the Canada Business Corporations Act and will have shares de-listed from the TSX-V and admitted to trading on AIM. Expected 28 May 2019, anticipated market cap of £76m Renold plc—a leading international supplier of industrial chains and related power transmission products, announced that it will cancel the listing of the Company from the premium segment and apply for admission on AIM. Expected 06 June 2019. Distribution Finance Capital Holdings plc — specialist lender which builds relationships with manufacturers and then provides working capital solutions up and down their supply chains to drive their growth is looking to join AIM. No raise, secondary offering of £19.8m at 90p, expected market cap of £95.98m. Expected 09 May 2019.

Companies: BXP MTL SYS DNL IXI PTR BIOM STX RTC TRAF

  • 11 Apr 19

Small Cap Feast

Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m. Loungers plc—the operator of 146 café/bar/restaurants across England and Wales under the Lounge and Cosy Club brands, announces its intention to seek admission on AIM, offer TBC, expected late April. SDX Energy plc—a North Africa focused oil and gas company, announces its intention to complete a Canadian plan of arrangement under section 192 of the Canada Business Corporations Act and will have shares de-listed from the TSX-V and admitted to trading on AIM. Expected 28 May 2019, anticipated market cap of £76m Renold plc—a leading international supplier of industrial chains and related power transmission products, announced that it will cancel the listing of the Company from the premium segment and apply for admission on AIM. Expected 06 June 2019.

Companies: SML CYAN AFM ASO TWD DNL CTG RNO HVO NBI

  • 03 Apr 19

The Monthly April 2019

Although the focus of Hardman & Co is predominantly on companies in the smallto mid-sized market capitalisation range, when writing research reports, it is important to position them relative to the industry in which they operate. Apart from Japanese companies, all the major global pharmaceutical companies have reported full-year results for 2018 over the past few weeks; therefore, we have taken the opportunity to update our industry database and generate the first cut of global rankings for 2018. For an industry that requires a long investment cycle – it still takes, on average, 10 years from discovery to launch of a new drug – decisions made many years ago have important consequences on current financial results. Therefore, looking back at operational performance over 20 years reveals how different company strategies have panned out.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB CMH CLIG CSH DNL GTLY HAYD KOOV LWRF MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 10 Mar 19

THE MONTHLY March 2019

In the investment world, before MiFID II, essentially every institution talked to every broker, and the whole, professional market could see every research note and the forecasts in detail. This was the ‘Age of Consensus’. Everyone had the same information (well, everyone except retail investors), and this transparency helped share price formation and liquidity

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB AVCT CMH CSH DNL GTLY GDR KOOV MCL OXB RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 05 Mar 19

The Monthly March 2019

In the investment world, before MiFID II, essentially every institution talked to every broker, and the whole, professional market could see every research note and the forecasts in detail. This was the ‘Age of Consensus’. Everyone had the same information (well, everyone except retail investors), and this transparency helped share price formation and liquidity.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB AVCT CMH CSH DNL GTLY GDR KOOV MCL OXB RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 05 Feb 19

THE MONTHLY February 2019

This Investment Research Paper addresses the issue of renewable power generation in the UK and in mainland Europe, which – after the deep-seated financial crisis of 2008/09 and the ensuing recession – now has better prospects of achieving critical mass. It also considers investment perspectives.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB AVCT DISH BUR CLIG CSH DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 16 Jan 19

Chronocort – seeking regulatory advice

Diurnal (DNL) is a commercial-stage specialty pharmaceutical company focused on diseases of the endocrine system. Its two lead products target rare conditions where medical needs are currently unmet, with the aim of building a long-term ‘Adrenal Franchise’. Alkindi is being launched in key EU markets, and this was expected to be followed by Chronocort; however, headline data from its EU Phase III trial in CAH did not show superiority over standard-of-care, thereby failing to meet its primary endpoint. DNL is seeking ‘Scientific Advice’ from the EMA about how to proceed, which should be available in 2Q’19, with a view to filing for market authorisation in Europe.

Companies: Diurnal Group
  • 11 Jan 19

THE MONTHLY January 2019

The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. 2018 was a difficult year; however, the index still outperformed its comparative London indices, falling 10.0% to 393.2, compared with -13.0% and - 18.2% for the Allshare index and the AIM index, respectively. Furthermore, several (17) companies in our index increased their capital base – 15 of our 50 constituents raised new funds, two issued shares as part consideration for acquisitions, and two had share buybacks – all factors that influence the performance of the index. Even allowing for both capital increases and share buybacks, the 12.5% fall in the index still represented a modest outperformance compared with the decline in the Allshare index. With active industry consolidation, shareholder returns remain attractive.

Companies: OPM AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR CLIG DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP REDX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA

  • 10 Jan 19

Small Cap Feast

Circassia Pharma (CIR.L) - specialty pharmaceutical company focused on respiratory disease transferring from the Main Market. No funds being raised. Due 4 Feb. Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected late January 2019.

Companies: SCH PAM CCS DNL GAN IND ELA BLV GFIN PTR

  • 09 Nov 18

Most popular equity research this week | 5 - 9 Nov

See what's trending this week...

Companies: BNOCMHRE/SCEELCOARBBSIXHTONAPHMURITVAGYEMECLIGZOOGDRDPPOPMAVOCSHDNLOXBKOOVHAYDGMDNSFREDXVALGTLYW7LRREPHPPURPAVCTMCLVTABURDISH

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Diurnal Group. We currently have 58 research reports from 3 professional analysts.

Open
32.0p
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52 Week
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# Shares
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Enterprise Value
£103.5m
Market Cap
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Latest News/RNS

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Date Source Announcement
07Aug19 11:04 RNS Director Dealings
05Aug19 12:27 RNS Director/PDMR Shareholding
26Jul19 16:32 RNS Holding(s) in Company
08Jul19 14:07 RNS Director Dealings and Issue of Equity
03Jul19 07:00 RNS Market Authorisation Application in Australia
26Jun19 15:57 RNS Holding(s) in Company
24Jun19 09:39 RNS Director Dealings
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  • 10 Sep 19

Microbiome-targeting, evidence-based food ingredients

We initiate coverage on life sciences company OptiBiotix Health plc (“OPTI”) with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a target price ("TP") of GBp97 per share. OPTI discovers and develops targeted microbiome-modulating probiotics, prebiotics and other functional food ingredients backed by scientific and clinical evidence. Since its founding in 2014, the company has developed four products for cardiovascular lifestyle diseases and entered >45 commercial deals with corporate partners through which it generates revenues throughout the value chain. The first two ingredients, LPLDL for cholesterol reduction and SlimBiome for weight loss were launched in May 2017 and are already generating revenues. We expect total revenues including those of latestage assets SweetBiotix (calorie-free sweet fibres for sugar replacement) and LPGOS (prebiotic that enhances the effect of LPLDL) to exceed £50m by 2025E.

Companies: Optibiotix Health
  • 27 Aug 19

Foreign buyers gorging on UK stocks

Like whales feasting on Krill, overseas firms are today stuffing themselves silly with choice fillets of corporate Britain. Why? Well look no further than geopolitical tensions and Brexit, which have disproportionately impacted UK equities and the £. Indeed the FTSE100 has lagged the S&P500 by a hefty 19% over the past 2 years, with Sterling dropping to 34 year lows vs US$ (see below). That said to us, based purely on fundamentals, this period of underperformance appears over-cooked, leaving many quality British companies vulnerable to predatory interest.

Companies: VOD AV/ AGK CHG CNA ITV BRBY SMIN CTEC SXS OXIG MGAM IMI WEIR WMH KMK EYE GATC ULS INS ALFA RDT TSTL ELCO MBH BLTG IHC 9537 CSRT NBI

  • 19 Sep 19

Interims – re-based forecasts

Interim results to 30 June 2019 showed a 21% decline in revenues, partly reflecting delays to contracts as well as other short-term market factors, which led to a 50% increase in adjusted pre-tax losses to £1.66m given the higher (+25%) R&D investment. Period-end cash was £2.1m. With a renewed commercial focus on high-value clinical trials market as well as its suite of new products, eCOA (electronic clinical outcome assessment) and NeuroVocalix (voice biomarker), however, the company continues to generate interest from large pharma, which is reflected in a growing order book, up 4% from 31 December 2018. This underpins our expectations for growth in 2020. We reduce our forecasts to reflect the impact of short-term factors in 2019 and introduce a target price of 90p, which implies a 2020 EV/Sales multiple of 3.5x. The business is being managed to ensure that it becomes cashflow breakeven in Q4 2020, with sufficient cash to ensure that it gets to profitability.

Companies: Cambridge Cognition
  • 23 Sep 19

Lupus Momentum Building – AstraZeneca, Roche and Alexion with Lupus indications – big market potential, big pharma approach – how will this fit with Lupuzor™?

The Lupus field continues to experience renewed upward momentum, especially in the past few days with a new update from Roche for its drug Obinutuzumab in Lupus Nephritis, an organ specific complication of Lupus. This follows AstraZeneca’s announcement (29/08/2019) of having met its primary and secondary endpoints in its second Phase III study in Lupus with antibody product Anifrolumab in the TULIP II study (see TLSD research report dated: 09/09/2019). We note in a recent broker call with the CEO of AstraZeneca, Pascal Soriot, stated that AstraZeneca was excited about the opportunity to file for Anifrolumab with the FDA. This is despite having completed the Phase III TULIP II study with an endpoint that we believe is not generally accepted by FDA – he went on to state that AstraZeneca was yet to discuss next steps with US FDA, however, he believed the ‘chances of approval on existing data are good, considering the unmet medical need and the limitations of current treatment’ (read: Benlysta). We believe that AstraZeneca will rely on presenting all its data from the TULIP II study, as well as a previous Phase II study that was successful. We await data from both the TULIP I and TULIP II studies – And re-iterate this situation is not dissimilar to ImmuPharma for its novel drug Lupuzor™.

Companies: ImmuPharma
  • 23 Sep 19

Interim results

Interim results are in line with the detailed trading statement issued in July; revenue fell to £2.0m but, following significant cost cutting outlined in the 2018 strategy, EBITDA became positive at £0.2m with £0.6m of cash on the balance sheet. The Group has been more selective with its direct selling activities in the US such that, whilst volumes fell, average prices increased, and revenue only fell from £0.8m to £0.7m. In our view, the price traction demonstrates the level of demand in this division US revenue would have been flat notwithstanding a contract of £0.1m that landed just outside of H1. These products have been higher margin and gross margin increased from 68% to 76%. The UK continues to be a difficult market as the NHS has been reluctant to invest.

Companies: Deltex Medical Group
  • 23 Jul 19

Quarterly Research Outlook - Summer 2019

In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.

Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 10 Sep 19

Positive H1 leads to upgrades, further agreement with Mt Sinai

A strong margin performance in H1 and positive outlook statement leads us to upgrade PBT/EPS expectations by 6%, continuing the recent track record of outperformance. Cash generation remains strong and a maiden dividend of 1.0p is expected, equating to a useful 3.2% yield. Following the success of the Renalytix AI spin out and IPO, EKF has deepened its relationship with Mount Sinai, signing a Preferred Provider Agreement to give it early access to new commercial opportunities. The first of these is a novel digital care pathway platform for patients with IBD, a significant chronic disease burden. We believe this represents an exciting potential opportunity for further value creation in due course, adding to the already strong organic growth opportunity from EKF itself. Now trading on sub-10x FY20 EV/EBITDA, EKF is looking increasingly undervalued given the multiple opportunities ahead.

Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holding
  • 17 Sep 19

Interims reflect challenging environment

It has been a challenging trading period for Surgical Innovations, with the UK facing significant pressures resulting in many elective surgeries being postponed or cancelled. The company is directly exposed to these trends, which unfortunately show no signs of abating in the short term. We reduce our FY19 revenue expectations by £1.5m, which flows through to a £0.7m reduction in PBT. More positively, good progress is being made in opening new accounts (both in the UK and internationally), which should leave the group well placed once conditions improve. Importantly, the group remains profitable, cash generative and with net cash on the balance sheet.

Companies: Surgical Innovations Group
  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 18 Jul 19

FY results; acquisitions to fully benefit FY 2020

Full-year results to 30 April 2019 were in line at the revenue line but 5% (£0.1m) better than expected at the adjusted pre-tax profit level. Underpinned by c.5.5% organic growth, the 20% and 26% increases in revenue and adjusted EBITDA were driven by full-year contributions from ATC and QSI, acquired in FY 2018, as well as five acquisitions in FY 2019. Notable was the 35% increase in free cashflow. Additional investments into Sentek, Atik, Graticules and Astles and the integration of ATC with Thermal Exchange in FY 2020 should benefit the businesses in FY 2021. We upgrade our FY 2020 adjusted EPS by 7% as well as introduce FY 2021 forecasts, which indicate 13% EPS growth. The company indicates that it expects to add at least one new business in FY 2020, which will be incremental to these forecasts. We are raising our target price by 9% to 60p, reflecting the improved gross margins and stronger underlying cashflow.

Companies: Scientific Digital Imaging
  • 05 Sep 19

Oxford Biomedica - Burgeoning bioprocessing revenues

Oxford BioMedica’s (OXB’s) interim results were broadly in line with our expectations for 2019. The decrease in H119 revenues to £32.1m (-9%) largely reflects the exceptional performance in the previous period, which was bolstered by strong licence income (H119: £13.3m vs H118: £19.9m) primarily from upfront payments with the Axovant and Bioverativ deals signed (£18.5m combined). Importantly, in H119 bioprocessing revenues grew 23% to £18.8m, which we expect was driven by the continued uptake of Novartis’s CAR-T Kymriah. Typically, bioprocessing revenues are back-end loaded so a stronger performance can be expected in the second half of the year. With OXB transitioning one of its GMP suites across to bioreactor processing in H119 and its new OxBox bioprocessing facility expected to be fully operational in Q220, we expect this growth to continue in the near term. We retain our valuation of £649m.

Companies: Oxford Biomedica
  • 09 Sep 19

AstraZeneca’s Anifrolumab successfully navigates the complexity of a Phase III lupus clinical trial, will Lupuzor be next?

LupuzorTM owned and developed by ImmuPharma is a valuable late-stage asset and is potentially a key peptide therapeutic drug in the fight against Lupus. Last year, the drug completed the first of two-Phase III clinical trials; we commented on the data and analysis of the trial result, in extensive detail in our initiation report dated: 28 May 2019. The second LupuzorTM Phase III clinical trial, could begin after the agreement of the trial design with regulators (possibly based on a targeted group encompassing Lupus patients that are anti-dsDNA auto-antibody positive) and once a licensing partner or funding route is identified. In this note, we comment on and evaluate the results of AstraZeneca’s recently disclosed Phase III Lupus trial, (Tulip II), which we believe will potentially have a positive impact on the Lupus field and the prospects for partnering LupuzorTM, as well as its path report. We reiterate our BUY rating on ImmuPharma plc and a Target Price of 76p.

Companies: ImmuPharma
  • 10 Sep 19

LIBERUM: Futura Medical* - Cannabis JV signed

Futura has announced the establishment of a joint venture (JV) with CBDerma Technology, a company that has been created and funded to exploit the therapeutic potential of Cannabis. The JV is exploring the potential of using Futura's proprietary transdermal drug delivery technology DermaSys® for the delivery of Cannabidoil (CBD).

Companies: Futura Medical
  • 11 Sep 19

LIBERUM: Futura Medical - Remains on-track for a potentially transformative catalyst in December

Futura announced HY2019 results today. It continues to deliver to plan with the key P3 FM57 study on-track to read-out in December and over 500 patients (of 1,000 in total) having completed the study already.

Companies: Futura Medical
  • 19 Sep 19

Onxeo - First Phase Ib DRIIV results released

On 18 September 2019, Onxeo released initial results from the first cohort of patients (n=3) in its ongoing Phase Ib DRIIV study with AsiDNA. The three patients had a progressive metastatic cancer (non-small cell lung cancer, triple negative breast cancer, gastric cancer) and were treated with AsiDNA plus carboplatin. No dose-limiting toxicity was observed. Two of the three patients have shown stable disease (RECIST) since the start of the treatment (more than four and five months). While it is too early to draw any conclusions on efficacy, stable disease status in 2/3 patients and a good safety profile appear encouraging. In the second part of the study, patients with various solid tumours will receive a combination of AsiDNA plus carboplatin and paclitaxel (standard of care in many solid tumours). Preliminary results are expected by end 2019.

Companies: Onxeo