When the company provided its trading update alongside interims 6 weeks ago there was relief as the shape of UK order intake going into the peak season was on a positive trajectory. The growth trend in international was continuing as expected. Earlier points of weakness in the UK that were experienced in June and August had merely eaten into the upside that existed in forecasts. Today, however, the company warns that positive order intake has not been sustained in the UK, with the trend reversing in October and early November. Assuming this persists for the remainder of the season, and has a knock on effect on Manufacturing, means FY18 forecasts will be missed by 10%. This assumes no response in terms of cost savings, given the lack of time to respond. Given the volatility that is emerging in UK sales, as a result of economic and political uncertainty, and lower housing activity at the premium end of the market, we feel that a more significant adjustment to forecasts is prudent for FY19, and downgrade by 12.5%. Given international growth dynamics, increasing licensing income and mix, outer year forecasts should be more resilient. We have reduced the target multiple to 9x EV/EBITDA compared to 10x previously. This results in a new 215p estimate of fair value (vs 270p previously). Given the disappointing news we revert back to HOLD.