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15 May 2025
Multi year M-HSD upgrades unveiled at company’s CMD

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Multi year M-HSD upgrades unveiled at company’s CMD
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc (HIK:LON) | 1,720 -51.6 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 3,816m
- Published:
15 May 2025 -
Author:
Floch Victor VF -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Hikma is hosting a Capital Markets Day (CMD) in Columbus (Ohio) where they have unveiled new MT guidance that implies Mid-to-high SD upgrades to FY27 consensus sales/core EBIT expectations.
BNPP Exane View:
Ahead of its CMD that is being held today at its Columbus plant, Hikma has unveiled new group MT guidance that looks for 7/8% 2024-27 CAGR for sales and core EBIT respectively (at midpoint), implying 6/7% positive revisions to consensus expectations. On top of this, Hikma has set a $5bn LT revenue guidance that implies double-digit upgrades to consensus. Though this likely assumes MandA, a strong track record and healthy balance sheet makes this credible in our opinion. From a first look at the company''s slide deck for the day, we note that the LT strategic plan is based on capacity expansion (1.5bn in CAPEX, broadly in line with expectations), growing CMO activity (set to represent 20% of the Generics business) and a ''strong'' contribution from the nascent compounding business among other key drivers. This very much aligned with our investment thesis that support our recent initiation of Hikma at Outperform (see: HIKMA: A winning tariff formula).
. New MT outlook implies 6%/7% positive earnings revisions on FY27 sales/core EBIT. While the company historically guided at the divisional level (except for Generics, now called Hikma Rx) on a 5-year basis, it had yet to set MT guidance at the group level. They have now done this with the company guiding for 7%/8% group revenue/core EBIT growth 2024-27 CAGR (at midpoint) which underpin 6%/7% upgrades to expectations.
. $5bn revenue LT revenue guidance implies double-digits upside to expectations. On top of this, Hikma is now giving a LT outlook which targets $5bn in group revenue in 2030, i.e., a 10%/20% upside to BNPP Exane/consensus. While it is fair to assume that this LT target is assuming some MandA, we believe that the company''s strong BD track record and healthy balance sheet...