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07 Aug 2020
Hikma Pharmaceuticals : Beat and raise - Add

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Hikma Pharmaceuticals : Beat and raise - Add
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc (HIK:LON) | 1,745 52.4 0.2% | Mkt Cap: 3,872m
- Published:
07 Aug 2020 -
Author:
Dr Andrew Whitney -
Pages:
7 -
1H20 beat and guidance raise. Group sales increased by 9% to $1,132m (+4% vs BBG consensus), Core operating profit was $284m (+13% vs consensus) and Core EPS was 0.848c (+13% vs consensus). Importantly, FY20 guidance for divisions was raised: Injectable revenue is now expected to be $950m-980m (up from low to mid-single digit % growth – consensus was at $940m), with an operating profit margin between 38%-40% (was 35%-37%). FY20 Generics revenue is now expected at $720m- $760m (was $700-$750m), with a core operating margin of 21% (was 20%, if generic Advair is approved). We reflect these guidance raises into our forecasts, alongside greater potential for g-Advair to launch in 2H. Net, our mid-term EPS forecasts increase by a double digit %. Our PT concomitantly increases c.14% to 2500p.
Still de-geared. As at end-1H20, Hikma leverage was 0.8x (net debt to core EBITDA), impacted in the half by the 12.8m share buyback from BI ($371m), paid through cash and existing facilities. Management have commented that they (continue to) explore acquisition opportunities, but given the organic growth, do not see a pressing need; they also flagged that the current market backdrop has the potential to delay deal-making for certain assets.
Next catalyst likely FDA g-Advair decision-making. On today’s analyst call, management highlighted their (industry norm) g-Advair GDUFA date range of 6-12 months. With the average time taken at c. 9-10 months, to us, this suggests decision-making in 3Q. Divisional guidance suggests g-Advair could be an incremental £25m of core operating profit in FY20 (c.4% group). Notwithstanding a longer-term contribution part predicated on GSK US payer contracting behaviour, as well as the ultimate number of market entrants, we see reasons to be cautiously optimistic.