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2022 began on a mixed note, with COVID-19 testing sales again making up for slowly recovering Pharmas – continue to be impacted by biosimilar erosion and pandemic, and the weakness in some core drugs. While its COVID-19 solutions are expected to take a severe hit in the coming months, it should be offset by the expected recovery in the core businesses. Moreover, the unchanged long-term potential of innovative offerings in Pharmas, supports our positive recommendation on the Swiss giant.
Companies: Roche Holding Ltd Dividend Right Cert.
Roche ended 2021 on a healthy note, with strong top-line growth in Q4 (+12%) ‘again’ being driven by Diagnostics, gains from COVID-19 treatment initiatives, and well-complemented by recovering core pharmas. However, profitability (quite understandably) came in slightly lower due to the higher contribution from low-margin COVID-19 offerings. While the 2022 outlook was also below market expectations, the recovery dynamics in core pharmas is a critical takeaway and, hence, the recent sell-off shoul
Roche reported healthy Q3 sales numbers (8% CER growth), with the robust performance in Diagnostics being complemented by a strong contribution from COVID-19 treatment initiatives, and recovering core pharma offerings. Although, the pandemic and biosimilars-induced headwinds could still have some near-term impact, the group is possibly hurt the worst on both fronts. Further valuable cushion comes from Roche’s innovation supremacy – evident in the post-pandemic testing times and which is here to
Q2 sales growth was healthy, with a strong performance in Diagnostics being complemented by some recovery in Pharmaceuticals. However, sustained headwinds (pandemic + biosimilars) in the lynchpin oncology franchise (and partly in other areas as well) has resulted in a ‘surprise’ margin deterioration. Moreover, resurfacing COVID-19 risks are expected to keep the Swiss giant on the hook. While near-term Pharmaceutical normalcy seems difficult, one should find confidence from growing Diagnostics do
Recently, there has been a turnaround in Roche’s fortunes, with its share price outperforming peers. While, fundamentally, Roche had always been a solid business, the revival in sentiment can be attributed to moderating COVID-19 risk(s) in the US – a key end market. This could be an inflection point for heavily US reliant innovative pharmas. Whereas, for Roche, its positioning as a sector bellwether is now likely to be better appreciated.
2021 began on an encouraging note, with Diagnostics again lending support to the lynchpin Pharmas division – continued to be impacted by biosimilar erosion and/or pandemic disruption. While the group’s near-term outlook still remains jittery – amid the current backdrop of resurfacing COVID-19 risks, growing Diagnostics dominance – backed by near-term tailwinds and long-term potential of innovative offerings in Pharmas – lend ample support to our investment case.
Roche has provided a re-assuring update for its Diagnostics division. Besides leveraging the COVID-19 testing opportunity, the group is well-positioned to capitalise the pandemic-driven emphasis on testing and investment in healthcare infrastructure. These are soothing developments, especially at a time when the core Pharma division may take some quarters before witnessing a complete recovery/normalisation. Moreover, with the group recently resorting to inorganic growth in diagnostics, we believ
Roche ended 2020 on a disappointing note, with biosimilar erosion and pandemic disruption taking their toll on the lynchpin Pharmaceuticals division. Although some meaningful support, as expected, surfaced from Diagnostics – a major pandemic beneficiary.
While the near term remains uncertain, there’s apt balance-sheet strength to pass this phase with minimal negative implications for growth plans and shareholder rewards. And, on top, with the innovations under-development, Roche remains amongst
Recently, there has been pertinent share price performance divergence between Novartis and Roche. While, for a long time, Novartis had the upper hand, it seems that Roche’s (rare) underperformance offers a window of opportunity. Remember, despite the recent concerns, some of which are/have also moderating/moderated, Roche still remains the undisputed leader on a host of performance parameters.
After a disappointing Q2 (-4% CER sales growth), Roche had some respite in Q3 (+1%) – though below expectations, largely driven by diagnostics due to the strong demand for COVID-19 tests. While the older oncology drugs continued facing pressure, newer drugs did better.
Management maintained its 2020 guidance and committed to higher dividends. While the on-going pharma transition may cap near-term sales, an adequate cushion should emanate via diagnostics. Moreover, investments in newer (high-pot
The second quarter performance pressure in Pharmaceutical was far more severe for Roche vs. Novartis. However, other than the impact of the Q1 forward-buying reversal, Roche was also impacted by the accelerated decline of the older and off-patent oncology trio. Fortunately, Diagnostics render a valued cushion, thanks to the group’s COVID-19 test offering. While Roche’s top-line is somewhat vulnerable to biosimilar risks, despite an impressive pipeline, its profitability prowess and hidden potent
With CHF13bn ($14bn) annual sales, Roche is a dominant force in the global diagnostics market. Interestingly, in recent years, most diagnostics majors have witnessed material re-ratings – also a function of increased M&A euphoria. Now, in the backdrop of COVID-19, Roche has also emerged as a prominent player on the testing front. With big pharmas moving away from (low-growth) non-pharma offerings, is it time for Roche to consider unlocking value from Diagnostics?
Pharmaceuticals and well-complemented by Diagnostics. Interestingly, although Roche’s management claims minimal COVID-related Q1 disruption, there were delayed appointments for some chronic diseases and a drug shortage. While it is difficult to believe that the performance in the coming quarters will continue unscathed, Roche – by virtue of its competitive offerings and balance sheet strength – should be able to sail through with minimal damage.
Roche ended 2019 on a subtle note, with erosion of key off-patent drugs capping gains from new high-potential drugs like Ocrevus, Hemlibra and Tecentriq. Nevertheless, full-year sales growth was 9% CER vs. early-2019 guidance of low-to-mid single-digit growth. While the group’s pipeline – especially in oncology, remains impressive, relatively muted 2020 guidance (vs. Novartis) is an indication of the biosimilar impact eventually gathering momentum.
Roche’s Q3 19 sales growth of 13% CER is the highest quarterly growth in the last eight years. In oncology, the newer drugs have clearly taken over the growth baton from the older ones, further supported by multiple sclerosis, haemophilia and immunology drugs. Despite the looming biosimilar risk, a third consecutive guidance upgrade this year is a reflection of the group’s sustained innovation and efficient lifecycle management.
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Full-year results were in line with the preliminary guidance issued in early 2022. Feraccru revenues in Europe increased with a 60% increase in volumes and the US commercialisation of Accrufer continues, with broader insurance coverage (100m lives covered). As with many small cap companies, access to growth capital is currently difficult; however, the group has raised a $10m loan from a major shareholder providing a cash runway till end-2022. Our assumption is that further funding comes from deb
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Trading continues to track ahead of expectations, which have been upgraded twice so far YTD. There is clear evidence the growth strategy is bearing fruit. Distribution gains are increasing brand reach both in the UK and overseas. This appears to be an ideal time for its on-trend value-for-money proposition to gain traction, potentially with counter-cyclical characteristics as consumers start trading down. After the recent pull-back, valuation is undemanding for a 3-yr EPS CAGR of 13% with risk p
Singer Capital Markets
OptiBiotix has reported final results for the year to December 2021, with revenues growing 45% to £2.2m and the EBITDA loss increasing to £1.0m, reflecting the increased investment in the business. Post-period end, OptiBiotix has continued to return value to shareholders through the successful spin-out and listing of its ProBiotix Health division. Future growth of the company is supported by commercial agreements with large partners and a substantial pipeline of opportunities through its 2nd gen
Companies: OptiBiotix Health PLC
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Belluscura has announced the launch of the next generation X-PLOR portable oxygen concentrator and expanded distribution through a D2C offering and partnership distribution plan for smaller DMEs.
Companies: Belluscura PLC
Dish of the day
Visum Technologies has joined the AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators).
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Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Compan
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Companies: Oxford BioDynamics PLC
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Tungsten Corp and Sensyne Health have both left AIM. Hibernia REIT has left the Main Market.
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Visum Technologies seeking admission to The AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Due 30 June.
LifeSafe Holdings, a fi
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An update from CVS this morning covering conclusion of the CMA process, a further acquisition and update on trading. The CMA investigation into the acquisition of Quality Pet Care (QPC) is now complete, thereby bringing to an end a 9 month process. As part of the undertaking, CVS yesterday completed the sale of QPC for cash proceeds of c.£9m, implying a c.£12m impairment. Whilst the CMA episode has clearly been a setback, it does not seem to have fundamentally impaired ongoing M&A ambitions give
Companies: CVS Group plc
The strong momentum from Q4-21 has continued into H1-22, with revenues expected to be up by more than 22% YoY. The outlook remains positive supported by strong industry demand and market share gains in the UK, where the group’s sustainability and affordability credentials are increasingly resonating. Whilst some macro pressures remain, these look to be manageable. We therefore make no change to our forecasts at this stage, but are highly encouraged by current trends and remain optimistic for the
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A positive AGM update confirms strong revenue growth has continued YTD and further margin improvement means management again expect EBITDA to be materially ahead of expectations. The business model is now settled, with additional distributors appointed in the US which should help drive further penetration into the Primary Care market there. China revenues were strong and with no sign yet of any slowdown, despite being cognisant of renewed lockdowns there. Gross margins have remained robust on po
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