AAZ is a highly cash-generative gold miner from four mines in Azerbaijan, where it enjoys close ties to the government. We estimate current-year free cashflow and dividend yields of 19.3% and 6.8%, respectively. The estimated aggregate free cashflow of $248.5m in 2020-30 should comfortably exceed the current market cap. In 2020, we expect AAZ to announce resource upgrades for its Gedabek open pit, Gadir and (potentially) Ugur mines, with a maiden estimate for the Gedabek underground mine in 2021. Behind them come five fast-track production targets (including Avshancli – a “significant mineral district”) at Gedabek and the Ordubad Contract Area (AAZ’s primary asset at the 2005 listing).
