Coverage dropped

With the completion of the deal with Sibanye-Stillwater, our coverage of Lonmin has been discontinued. Shares of the combined entity will be traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

SP Angel – Morning View

Armadale Capital (ACP LN) – Mahenge Liandu graphite project DFS update | Glencore (GLEN LN) – Commodities Futures Trading Commission investigation | Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) – Deloitte resigns as auditor | Lonmin (LMI LN) – Sibanye-Stillwater increases all share offer to 1:1 | Lucara Diamonds (LUC CN) – 1758 carat diamond recovered at Karowe

SP Angel – Morning View

Anglo American (AAL LN) – Broad based improvement, led by coal, continues to reduce debt | ARC Minerals* (ARCM LN) – Sale of Andiamo stake for $0.25m | Glencore (GLEN LN) – coal concession not all what it seems. Dalian coal ban will hurt but Glencore traders will profit in other ways | Horizonte Minerals (HZM LN) –Araguaia project update and start of Vermelho pre-feasibility work | Lonmin (LMI LN) – AMCU union give Lonmin notice of secondary strike action | Sibanye-Stillwater (SGL SJ) – Good res

The much-needed performance turnaround

Lonmin reported exceptional full-year results, benefiting from palladium and rhodium price tailwinds, less severe production stoppages and better operational efficiencies – via an increased focus on cost-efficient mines. As a result, the group managed to maintain a comfortable net cash cushion. These are encouraging results for Sibanye-Stillwater, which is inching closer towards Lonmin’s acquisition. While the PGM price outlook remains sombre, successful labour restructuring should remain a key

SP Angel – Morning View

Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) – Board directors buy 1.5m shares in the market | Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Copenhagen Economics Study published in Swedish | Cradle Arc* (CRA LN) – US$2m loan facility | Element 25 (E25 AU) – Infill drilling commenced at Butcherbird manganese project | Lonmin PLC (LMI LN) – Platinum sales guidance exceeded for year to 30th September | Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – Q1 Trading update

Lonmin's never-ending woes

Despite a decent Q3 production and cost performance, Lonmin’s difficulties have persisted. Apart from continuation of a weak platinum pricing environment, the political and economic situation in South Africa hasn’t improved much – which may be a deterrent for the group’s aggressive cost containment plans, especially for workforce rationalisation. At the moment, Lonmin’s only ray of hope is the completion of the acquisition unveiled by Sibanye-Stillwater.

SP Angel – Morning View

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – Gedabek JORC mineral resource at 1moz | Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – Ogaro prospect identified at Nayega Lonmin | PLC (LMI LN) – SACC approval | Phoenix Global Mining* (PGM LN) – Latest drilling hits high grade feeder zone at the Empire mine | W Resources (WRES LN) – Drilling results from Regua

SP Angel – Morning View

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) –Letseng yields another large diamond | Lonmin PLC (LMI LN) – Q3 production results

SP Angel – Morning View

Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Annual results and Kun Manie EBITDA estimates | Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) BUY – Arc reports rise in Akyanga gold resource to 3moz at 2.26g/t | Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) BUY - Target 25p – Vanadium production expansion on time and within budget | Cradle Arc (CRA LN) – 2017 results and Mowana copper mine update | Lonmin PLC (LMI LN) – Update on Sibanye

Despite pricing relief, cash burn continues; now hope(s) pinned on H2

Even after pricing improvements (excluding platinum), the group continues to report losses and burn cash. Although some normalisation could get underway (H2 FY18 onwards), the performance is likely to remain capped as platinum prospects look gloomy. The only major relief can come post a successful merger with Sibanye-Stillwater, but here again brewing uncertainties/difficulties at Sibanye create an unsettled air.

SP Angel – Morning View

Caledonia Mining (CMCL) – Cash flow building up as Blanket investment plan proceeds | Lonmin PLC (LMI LN) – Interims retain sales guidance for the year despite shortfall in sales in first half | Savannah Resources (SAV LN) – Progress on permitting in Oman

SP Angel – Morning View

Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) BUY – Target price 12.2p – Ethiopia licenses exploration update | Bushveld Minerals* (BMN) – BUY, Target price adjusted to 14 from 14.3p – Bushveld accelerates expansion to capitalise on higher vanadium price levels | Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Production for 2017 and 2018 guidance | Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Another large diamond recovered from Letseng | Lonmin PLC (LMI LN) – 2017 results, maintained 2018 guidance and update on offer from Sibanye

The last bailout(?)

As a major relief for Lonmin, the beleaguered South African platinum miner is to be acquired by Sibanye-Stillwater (hereafter referred to as ‘Sibanye’) – a leading gold miner in South Africa, with a growing interest in PGMs – as part of an all-share offer unveiled earlier today. Under the terms agreed, each Lonmin shareholder will receive 0.967 of Sibanye’s shares. Based on the 30-day volume-weighted average price of Sibanye up to 13 December 2017 and an exchange rate of ZAR18.056 per pound, L

SP Angel – Morning View

Dalradian Resources (DALR LN) – Drilling results from Curraghinalt | onmin PLC (LMI LN) – Recommended offer from Sibanye | Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Exercise of Warrants | Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM AU) – Sale of Bonikro mine | Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Further drilling results from the Zulu Lithium Project | Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Annual results and project highlights

Collapsing, yet (somehow) surviving

Despite Q4 production improvements, Lonmin’s troubles are not coming to an end – as both sombre platinum prices and cost pressure have continued. The business outlook gets further clouded by waning preference for fossil-fuel powered vehicles (a key end-use of platinum and palladium). While the performance measures are expected to remain weak, our 40% upside potential, nevertheless, banks on the Government’s unwavered support, as employment-wise the group holds immense strategic importance.

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Plexus Holdings, Baron Oil, Harbour Energy, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Arrow Exploration, Southern Energy, Serinus Energy, SDX Energy, Panoro Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, OKEA ASA, Equinor Source: FactSet, weekly change 27/11/23-1/12/23 Oil extended declines, closing out a sixth straight weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced Thursday failed to dispel the market’s gloom over swelling global supplies. West Texas Intermed

Pan African Resources - Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit

Morning Note – 4 December 2023

Hartshead Resources - Fully Funded Solution

Hartshead has secured a funding solution with partner Rockrose Energy to fund 100% of the Phase I development costs. Under the agreement, Hartshead has the option to exchange an additional 20% licence interest for an uncapped free carry, thereby covering the total cost of the Phase I development project (financing backstop). Importantly, Hartshead maintains at its election the option not to proceed with the RockRose financing solution, and introduce other financing solutions (eg project debt, pr

New Debt Facility – Lowering TRR Cost of Capital

We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.

Southern Energy - 3Q Results and Comprehensive Update Note

Southern Energy delivered solid 3Q results with the focus of attention now turned towards the completion of 4 drilled uncompleted wells (“DUCs”). We see our investment thesis for Southern Energy – premised on the scale, location, quality, deliverability, low-cost nature of the company's Gwinville gas field in Mississippi, USA – very much strengthening based on our structural commodity price outlook and our growing confidence in the highly prolific Gwinville gas field, sharpening our interest in

SP Angel Morning View: Gold powers through $2,100/oz on outlook for Fed rate cuts

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

Jersey Oil & Gas, Serica Energy, Trinity Exploration & Production, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Neptune Energy, Pantheon Resources, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Kufpec, ORLEN.

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

Diversified Energy Company - Delivering Consistent and Reliable Results

DEC’s Q3/23 trading update was in line with expectations as the company continued to deliver despite further commodity price headwinds. The Q3/23 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 52% (H1/23: 52%) reflects the quality of DEC’s asset base and its ability to efficiently manage every aspect of its operations. Average net daily production in Q3/23 was 134Mboepd (H1/23: 142Mboepd), with exit rate production of 134.4Mboepd. DEC has maintained its dividend at US$0.04375 per share. Since its IPO in 2017, DEC ha

Thor Energy - High-Grade Uranium Intercepts at Groundhog Prospect

Thor today announces the final downhole gamma results for the reverse circulation drill programme undertaken at the Wedding Bell and Radium Mountain projects in the USA. Downhole gamma readings are a commonly used proxy for physical uranium assays.

LIBERUM: Shanta Gold: Another excellent quarter

DEC Q3 Trading Update & US Listing

DEC reported strong Q3 results with production in line while 9m EBITDA of $423m is equal to 80% of DCe FY23 $528m; it has also announced a US listing.

Strong second half trading

Jersey Oil & Gas - Delivering zero-capex barrels

Last week, JOG successfully secured its second GBA farmout, locking in a path to delivering zero-capex barrels. The surprisingly muted share price response to the farm-out leaves JOG trading at an unjustifiably large discount to our valuation. With a material fully funded development project under its belt and a clean balance sheet, JOG presents a very low-cost way to access high quality development barrels for investors and potential acquirers alike. If the threat of M&A does not narrow JOG’s v