Pan African Resources - Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit

Pan African Resources - Advancing to 250koz in annual output in FY26

Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) FY23 results, announced on 13 September, were closely in line with our forecasts. Barberton underground, Evander underground and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project (BTRP) all recorded higher throughputs at slightly lower grades than we had been expecting, but also lower unit cash costs in ZAR/t terms. Elikhulu performed in line with our expectations in terms of output, albeit at slightly higher unit costs, owing to continued electricity supply disruptions a

Pan African Resources - Dividend yield trending higher than P/E ratio

On 7 August, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced FY23 production of 175,209oz, which was within 0.1% of its guidance of 175,000oz on 26 May. It also indicated all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$1,325–1,350/oz (at ZAR17.77/US$), reiterated output guidance of 178–190koz for FY24 and reported net senior debt of US$18.9m as at end-June (cf US$49.9m as at end-H123). In response to the announcement, we have reduced our FY23 normalised HEPS forecast for PAF by 8.3%, from 3.82c/share to 3.50c/share

Pan African Resources - Taking the rough with the smooth

In its operational update, released last week, Pan African Resources (PAF) reduced its production guidance for FY23 by c 12.5% from 195–205koz to 175koz. The reduction was due to instability and disruptions in the electricity supply to PAF’s operations (c 10koz), a slower ramp up to continuous operations at Barberton and faulting at the Kimberley reef at Evander, coupled with a delay in transitioning to full production at 24 Level. In addition, we anticipate that PAF will record a small loss of

Pan African Resources - Innovative funding avoids dilution

On 13 March, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced the completion of the final component in its funding package for its Mintails dump retreatment project outside Johannesburg. The funding is in the form of an innovative transaction with Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) in the style of a synthetic forward sale agreement, whereby Pan African will sell 4,846oz of gold per month to RMB for 24 months, commencing in March at a fixed price of ZAR1,025,000/kg (US$1,750/oz at the prevailing forex rate), in retur

Pan African Resources - Forecast upgrade

Pan African Resources (PAF) announced its FY23 interim results in the context of known production results and a JSE listing requirement paragraph 3(b) trading statement that indicated both earnings per share and headline earnings per share (HEPS) in the range 1.40–1.64c at the interim stage. In the event, HEPS and EPS for the six-month period were exactly in the middle of the guided range at 1.52c/share. In the wake of the H123 results, we have upgraded our forecast for normalised HEPS for FY23

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 15 Feb 23

15 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

SP Angel Morning View: US$ climbs dragging metal prices lower on hotter than expected inflation

Jersey Oil & Gas - Delivering zero-capex barrels

Last week, JOG successfully secured its second GBA farmout, locking in a path to delivering zero-capex barrels. The surprisingly muted share price response to the farm-out leaves JOG trading at an unjustifiably large discount to our valuation. With a material fully funded development project under its belt and a clean balance sheet, JOG presents a very low-cost way to access high quality development barrels for investors and potential acquirers alike. If the threat of M&A does not narrow JOG’s v

Plexus Holdings - FY23 final results – on the road to recovery

Plexus FY23 revenue and losses were in line with expectations. As well as the further development of its licensee relationship with SLB (Schlumberger), Plexus is focussed on its re-entry into the rental of exploration wellheads from Jack-up rigs, the sale of surface production wellheads and the provision of specialised solutions and applications to operators, particularly for Plug & Abandonment (P&A) work. Plexus won a substantial c£5m special project contract during the year, which was expanded

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): FY24 drilling programme: high impact & low risk

• 3Q23 production was 2,518 boe/d, near our forecast of 2,674 boe/d. • Arrow held US$12.9 mm in cash at the end of September. This is ahead of our expectations of US$6.6 mm on lower capex and opex. • Four new wells are expected to be on stream by YE23 including RCE 7, RCE-8 and two wells at Oso Pardo. • Following interpretation of the recently shot 3D seismic at Tapir, Arrow plans to drill a total of 15 wells in 2024 including five exploration wells targeting 3 material and low risk exploration

Morning Note – 29 November 2023

Morning Note – 28 November 2023

Alien Metals - Setting the foundations for operations at the Hancock DSO project

Alien and the Iron Ore Company of Australia (IOCA), continue to lay the foundations for operations at Hancock, one of its direct shipping iron ore (DSO) projects in Western Australia. Progress made to date ensures that, should a positive investment decision be made following the conclusion of Definitive Feasibility Studies (DFS), Hancock will be in operation and generating cashflow soon after capital is invested.

Longboat Energy plc (AIM: LBE): All eyes on 2024

• With the acquisition of interests in Sygna and Statfjord Øst expected to complete in January, the process to establish a stable well-funded producing business in Norway is almost complete. FY23 production at Sygna and Statfjord Øst net to Longboat Norge is ~250 boe/d. • The acquisition of 49.9% of Longboat Norge by JAPEX in 2023 provides low cost capital and access to a strong balance sheet to develop further the Kveikje area and make acquisitions at no further dilution to Longboat plc. • With

New Debt Facility – Lowering TRR Cost of Capital

We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties: New $40m revolving facility: cheaper, more flexible, expandable to $60m

Morning Note – 1 December 2023

LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator still says BUY: Equities lift too

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

Clean Power Hydrogen - Revised agreement with ATOME

CPH2 and ATOME have reached a mutual agreement to cease the previous production order made by ATOME. The CPH2 Board of Directors considers it is in the Company’s best of interests to focus its engineering and installation resources in ensuring roll out Membrane Free Electrolysers with current partners Fabrum Solutions Limited, KCA Deutag and, Northern Ireland Water. As part of the agreement, Molecular Energies has requested, and CPH2 has agreed to, a non-binding framework agreement with G-Mobili

Strong second half trading

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

Jersey Oil & Gas, Serica Energy, Trinity Exploration & Production, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Neptune Energy, Pantheon Resources, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Kufpec, ORLEN.