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29 Jan 2021
Bloomsbury Publishing : Content really is king - Buy

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Bloomsbury Publishing : Content really is king - Buy
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON) | 500 5 0.2% | Mkt Cap: 408.5m
- Published:
29 Jan 2021 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
6 -
Continues to outperform: Bloomsbury has today released an unscheduled trading update for the fiscal year ending 28 February, noting that revenue will be ahead of expectations, with profit well ahead of consensus for the year. Management note that this reflects strong trading in the Consumer division, across both Adult & Children. Alongside a supportive backdrop (Nielsen estimates UK print book sales at +5.2% in 2020), they highlight the notable performance of bestsellers in H2 such as ‘Eat Better Forever’ and ‘Joe Biden – American Dreamer’, but also the strong backlist sales of Harry Potter, Sarah J Maas’ titles and ‘Why I’m No Longer Talking to White People About Race’.
Encouragement for the future: This performance – once again confounding earlier fears around the impact of the crisis – in our view illustrates the strength of the strategy to continue investing in high-quality content, given consumer demand for this remains extremely resilient. From a broader perspective, we believe this applies to the Academic & Professional division too – management note that it continues to make good progress, and we believe incremental customer demand for its digital resources through the crisis will prove beneficial over the longer-term.
Fundamental valuation upside: We upgrade FY21E revenues by c.4%, with EPS up 19% – estimates from FY22E onwards see more modest changes at this stage, although we note that with our new forecast for a net cash position of c.£50m at YE21E, significant scope for earnings accretive M&A remains. Despite the net cash, the stock trades at just 14x calendarised FY22E earnings, or <8x EBITDA, notably below the level of recent industry transactions – we see significant upside to the valuation over time.