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29 Oct 2019
Bloomsbury Publishing : Keeps delivering - Buy

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Bloomsbury Publishing : Keeps delivering - Buy
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON) | 500 5 0.2% | Mkt Cap: 408.5m
- Published:
29 Oct 2019 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | David Amiras, CFA -
Pages:
6 -
Encouraging signs: Bloomsbury reported revenues of £71.3m, down 5% yoy, with PBT of £2.5m also modestly down yoy. This however masks the robust true underlying performance – Children’s Trade fell 19%, but this reflects 1 less Sarah J Maas release versus H119 and Harry Potter revenues down 13% in the period. Elsewhere, Adult Trade grew 2% and Non-Consumer grew 6%, driven by 9% growth in Academic & Professional – largely on the back of an impressive 73% growth in revenues from Bloomsbury Digital Resources (moving this initiative into profit for the first time).
Outlook reassuring: Management highlighted that the Consumer front-list is even more skewed to H2 than normal – with the new illustrated edition of Harry Potter already on sale and the new Tom Kerridge title coming in December (amongst others). This gives them confidence that FY performance for the group will be in-line with expectations – despite the impact of US tariffs on books printed in China coming into place (which may have a greater impact in FY21). Reflecting their confidence, the dividend grew another 6%, helped by the cash position improving with further inventory reductions (down 5% organically).
Valuation upside potential remains: Management’s strategy to build a bigger and more profitable Bloomsbury should continue to deliver resilient earnings growth through the cycle, underpinned by the number of growth opportunities they can target and the potential benefits from M&A as they utilise their net cash position. We expect them to deliver a 13% EPS CAGR, which warrants a higher multiple than the current 14x calendar FY20E PE. Our EPS forecasts see negligible change near-term and nudge up c.1% longer-term.