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  • 17 Jul 2019

Investec - Bloomsbury Publishing (Buy): Trading update: Non-Consumer momentum continues


Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON) | 478 19.1 0.8% | Mkt Cap: 390.5m


  • Investec Bank
    • Alastair Reid | David Amiras, CFA

    • 7 pages


 

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Investec - Bloomsbury Publishing (Buy): Trading update: Non-Consumer momentum continues


Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON) | 478 19.1 0.8% | Mkt Cap: 390.5m


  • Published: 17 Jul 2019
  • Author: Alastair Reid | David Amiras, CFA
  • Pages: 7
  • Investec Bank


Trading update: Non-Consumer has maintained its growth trend through the start of FY20, led by a continued strong performance from A&P (which in FY19 grew sales +13%). Group revenues for the four months ended 30 June are, however, a modest -3% lower YoY given the strong comparator in Consumer, where the Adult division benefitted from unexpectedly high sales of backlist Kitchen Confidential in the prior year (Adult revenues were +23% in H1 FY19), as well as timing of Sarah J Maas titles given A Court of Frost and Starlight released in the first 4 months last year and this year’s release back-end weighted. Upbeat outlook: BMY is performing in line with management expectations for FY20, with Q1 typically the smallest contributor to the full-year. In Consumer, significant frontlist titles are H2-weighted, including a new illustrated Harry Potter title due out in October, and the new Sarah J Maas. We also have encouraging news today that Tom Kerridge’s new book, Lose Weight and Get Fit, will be accompanied by a primetime BBC TV series – which helps underpin expectations for what should be a major BMY title. In Non-Consumer, we expect positive momentum to continue through the remainder of FY20; and we note the new BDR partnership with the National Theatre announced in June which further supplements/strengthens Drama Online and helps endorse BMY digital credentials. Our forecasts are unchanged at this stage, for FY20E revenue +3.6% to £169m, adj.PBT £16m and EPS +11% to 12.5p. Still undervalued: BMY trades on <13x CY20E P/E despite offering c.13% forecast EPS CAGR, with a strong balance sheet pointing to additional M&A optionality.

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