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18 Jan 2024
Centaur Media : A butterfly emerging - Buy

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Centaur Media : A butterfly emerging - Buy
Centaur Media plc (CAU:LON) | 41.5 0.2 1.2% | Mkt Cap: 62.8m
- Published:
18 Jan 2024 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Darren Milne -
Pages:
6 -
Profit delivery is key: In a FY trading update released this morning, Centaur has confirmed that it has delivered ‘good’ yoy growth in both EBITDA and EBITDA margin in FY23, with margin expected to be above 25%, reflecting the ongoing focus on expanding its key strategic revenue streams and the operational leverage this provides. This brings the margin ahead of the profitability target in the company’s MAP23 plan set out 3 years ago. Revenues on a continuing basis are however now expected to be down slightly relative to FY22 given further declines in non-strategic revenue streams in Marketing Solutions / Recruitment. Centaur closed certain of these assets in December (to be presented as ‘discontinued’ in future), with the comparable revenue base in FY22 at £38.4m.
Looking to the future: Focusing on the longer-term, management note that widely publicised macro & inflationary pressures caused revenue trends to slow in H2, and that, as a result, they maintain a cautious outlook going into 2024. More broadly, management will outline the latest aspects of their future strategy after the full results on March 13th, which will be supported by a net cash position of £9.5m at year end.
Significantly under-valued: On forecasts, we cut EBITDA by 5% in FY23E and FY24E, and trim our TP to 65p. Centaur currently trades at <6x CY24E EV/EBITDA - given the increasing strategic importance of its data and tools to customers, we continue to believe this is a fundamental mis-pricing. We believe there is scope for private / trade buyers to take advantage of this over the medium-term should the stock not re-rate.