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23 Jan 2025
Centaur Media : An inflection point - Buy

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Centaur Media : An inflection point - Buy
Centaur Media plc (CAU:LON) | 41.5 0.2 1.2% | Mkt Cap: 62.8m
- Published:
23 Jan 2025 -
Author:
Alastair Reid -
Pages:
6 -
FY trading ahead: Yesterday Centaur released an unscheduled trading update for the FY: trading since the last update in October has been ahead of expectations, and management now expect revenue for FY24 of £35m (INVe previously £34.1m), with an EBITDA margin of 16% - implying £5.6m EBITDA, c.8% ahead of our previous estimate. Management note the ongoing marketing sector headwinds still impacting parts of the business, but also note the underpinning impact of growth at The Lawyer (7%) and the MW Mini MBA (5%), and highlight a net cash balance of £8.9m at YE.
Strategic review: The company notes that a review of Centaur’s business operations and strategy is underway, post the previous CEO’s departure, with the new executive chair noting the focus on defining the strategy and maximising shareholder value. We discussed in our recent sector outlook note (see here) the fundamental value in the business from The Lawyer (worth nearly £50m in our SOTP), the Mini MBA and the cash position, relative to a market cap currently of <£45m.
Fundamental value to be had: On forecasts, we increase FY24E EBITDA by 8%, but more modest future growth assumptions leave EBITDA up 3% in FY25E and unchanged longer-term. Centaur currently trades at c.6x CY25E EBITDA – we have often argued that this leaves scope for EBITDA multiple expansion once estimate revisions reached an inflection point. If such a point has now been reached, we see scope for re-rating, either as a reflection of the business today, or because of the potential for value crystallisation over time through portfolio restructuring.