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13 Mar 2024
Centaur Media : Entering a new era - Buy

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Centaur Media : Entering a new era - Buy
Centaur Media plc (CAU:LON) | 41.5 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 62.8m
- Published:
13 Mar 2024 -
Author:
Alastair Reid -
Pages:
6 -
Robust FY23 results: The recent trading update ensures limited surprises, but Centaur’s FY23 results were robust – revenue of £37.3m was down 3% on a continuing basis, albeit the ‘higher quality’ revenues (now 80% of the group) were up 3% given resilient demand from the customer base. EBITDA of £9.7m represented a 26% margin, well above the MAP23 target, and a net cash position of £9.5m at year-end supports a dividend of 1.8p.
Life post MAP23: By division, of the Flagship 4 brands, The Lawyer and the Marketing Week Mini MBA were the stand-outs, with revenue growth up 1% and 8% respectively. We also believe there are signs for optimism in forward booking / RFP trends going into 2024 in businesses like The Lawyer and EConsultancy (respectively). Looking further out, management have announced a planned CMD on April 23 where we expect greater detail on their strategic plans and aspirations post MAP23, in the context of revenue growth, investment & margin targets and plans for cash utilisation to support the scaling of the business intelligence and learning organisation that has been built – potentially involving selective bolt-on acquisitions.
Value under-appreciated: In terms of our forecasts, we cut revenues and EBITDA by 1-2% in FY24E and FY25E, whilst introducing new FY26E numbers. Centaur currently trades at <5x CY25E EBITDA – having undergone a significant transformation in recent years to allow the increasing strategic importance of its data and tools to become apparent, we believe a much higher valuation is warranted. If public markets do not apply this, we see scope for private / trade buyers to take advantage.