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16 Mar 2022
Centaur Media : Hitting the target - Buy

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Centaur Media : Hitting the target - Buy
Centaur Media plc (CAU:LON) | 41.0 0.2 1.2% | Mkt Cap: 62.1m
- Published:
16 Mar 2022 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
6 -
Strong FY21 results: Centaur has today reported strong FY results – revenue of £39.1m (reflecting 21% underlying growth) was 2% ahead of our recently upgraded forecast, with EBITDA of £6.4m also ahead of expectations. With net cash of £13.1m (pre-IFRS16) at year end, the company has proposed a total FY dividend of 1p, in-line with policy. Management highlight that the business saw its Flagship 4 brands benefit from optimised pricing, strong renewal rates and a recovery in events during the year, and the internationalisation of the group continues (37% of revenue now outside the UK). EConsultancy performed particularly strongly, whilst The Lawyer saw an impressive 116% client renewal rate.
On track for MAP23: Management note the performance in 2021 provides a good platform for further growth in 2022 (trading in the first two months is in-line with expectations) and leaves them on track to deliver on their MAP23 targets. This is despite the headwinds of inflation, competition for talent and geopolitical developments, with management noting the plan to use structured price rises, supplier negotiations and flexible reward structures to manage margin against this backdrop, whilst continuing to invest to take advantage of market trends.
Mis-priced equity: We leave revenues and EBITDA broadly unchanged and introduce new FY24E forecasts. After a strong share price performance in 2021, the recent pull back in the shares leaves them trading at c.5x FY23E EBITDA, a meaningful discount to peers. The group has undergone a fairly radical transformation in recent years, leaving it with robust long-term structural growth drivers in place, enabled by scaleable technology platforms that have been built – in our view this warrants a significantly higher valuation.