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24 Jul 2024
Centaur Media : Short-term pain, long-term gain - Buy

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Centaur Media : Short-term pain, long-term gain - Buy
Centaur Media plc (CAU:LON) | 41.5 -0.2 (-1.2%) | Mkt Cap: 62.8m
- Published:
24 Jul 2024 -
Author:
Alastair Reid -
Pages:
6 -
H1 results below expectations: Centaur has today reported H1 revenues of £16.5m, down 8% yoy, with EBITDA down 26% to £2.5m (in small part impacted by the first of the investments flagged at the recent CMD) and EPS more than halving to 0.7p. The dividend and net cash are both flat yoy, supported by lower cash tax payments, and management announce a new progressive dividend policy (the higher of the previous year’s dividend or 40% of adjusted earnings). On the outlook, management expect growth to return in H2.
Digging into the detail: By division, The Lawyer grew 7%, but Xeim declined 13% as areas such as EConsultancy and Oystercatchers saw macro headwinds; encouragingly at least, strategically important areas such as Marketing Week Mini MBA saw impressive operational performance. Over time, the BIG27 programme to drive long-term resilient growth should significantly improve the quantum and resilience of revenues but, in our view, the scope for more product pruning & restructuring nearer term is a potential possibility.
Under-valued, whilst awaiting an inflection point: We cut revenue by c.68% from FY24E onwards – this, combined with investment, means we now assume a c.20% EBITDA margin in FY24E (from c.25% previously), leading to EBITDA falling 27% this year (moderating to -18% by FY26E) and EPS falling c.35% near-term. We reduce our target price to 55p as a result. Centaur now trades at just under 7x CY25E EBITDA – inexpensive, in our view, but for a significant re-rating we recognise the need for clarity on the sustainable base for revenues / profits to grow from.