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02 Jun 2025
Eagle Eye Solutions : Isolated but material contract loss - Buy

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Eagle Eye Solutions : Isolated but material contract loss - Buy
Eagle Eye Solutions Group PLC (EYE:LON) | 212 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 63.0m
- Published:
02 Jun 2025 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
7 -
Context of partnership loss. The NRS industry set-up is different from Eagle Eye’s other partnership / clients. NRS effectively agrees terms with Retailers to deliver revenue amounts from specified product vendors, with whom NRS forms commercial agreements based on volume, discounting and offers. NRS used Eagle Eye to manage the digital distribution of these offers to the retailers’ customers. Having acquired Quotient in 2023, which has some capabilities similar to basic aspects of Eagle Eye’s, it appears that it is now an in-house preference. This is a commercial decision, not a tech or customer-led issue.
Financial impact. NRS’ historic revenue run-rate is c£9-£10m but, due to the pricing structure (per click on both issuance and redemption) with little incremental investment for Eagle Eye, it was a c90% gross margin drop-through to EBITA. When group profits were reduced from the SaaS transition, NRS became a bigger part of the P&L, exacerbating the impact of the contract loss. We cut EBITDA by 60% in FY26E and 38% in FY27E (details overleaf).
Opex tightly managed around scalability. While highly profitable, it is not the strategic thrust of Eagle Eye. Investment is focused on the future scalability of its tech platform, OEM integration, partner eco-system, SaaS migration and international expansion. We assume costs are broadly flat in FY26E/FY27E with efficiency savings & tight cost management reinvested in strengthening business scalability, supporting c20% FY27E EBITDA margin recovery.
View. While this is an isolated instance, it is nonetheless a significant near-term financial setback which we expect to materially impact the share price today. However, the multiple faceted scale prospects for the core business remain highly attractive and should drive medium-term enhanced financial returns – supporting our 400p TP based on trough FY26E revenue and a 3x multiple.