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13 Jan 2025
Eagle Eye Solutions : Strategic wins, services shift, macro trends - Buy

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Eagle Eye Solutions : Strategic wins, services shift, macro trends - Buy
Eagle Eye Solutions Group PLC (EYE:LON) | 234 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 70.1m
- Published:
13 Jan 2025 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
7 -
Revenue change driven by services. The downgrade masks a strong underlying business with our FY26E recurring revenue estimates growing c15%, with prospects of this accelerating further out as we discuss below. Most of the downgrade stems from the group’s decision to accelerate the strategic shift away from its services activities, which amounts to c£5m of our FY25E revenue cut. The other c£3m stems from elongated sales cycles caused by the macro backdrop, with some material deals still yet to sign.
Profit change limited for FY26E. With the bulk of the downgrade from services, it effectively means a lower staff base, thus materially reducing opex. Along with careful cost management, balanced by investment to drive wins (a new US CRO), our opex forecast falls c£6m, with EBITDA margins c24% vs our previous 23%, reflecting the mix change. Our EBITA forecast is further cushioned as we reduce the amortisation of contract fulfilment costs (less services), meaning our FY26E EBITA falls 9%, reflecting the increasing underlying margin and earnings quality of the business.
Strategic wins. A five-year OEM deal with a major global enterprise software vendor embedding AIR into its stack is a major validation of AIR. It should offer substantial revenue capture from installed base and new wins in this fast-growing market. It is not factored into our estimates, while we wait for execution, with potential for upgrades. The signing of EPAM & Infosys forms the base of Eagle Eye’s accelerating shift away from services. It still maintains core delivery and support, but once products are aligned then a more pure-play SaaS model, with partners delivering services, is the ambition.
View. We expect SP weakness on the cut to forecasts but it masks the ongoing strengthening of the model & long-term outlook. Buy with retained 900p TP.