Hybridan Small Cap Feast 17/06/2022

*A corporate client of Hybridan LLP Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Visum Technologies seeking admission to The AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Due 30 June. LifeSafe Holdings, a fire safety

Still going strong

Future today released an update highlighting FY’20E adj EBITDA which is trading towards the top-end of consensus (£86.3m-£91.0m; N1Se: £88.5m). Strong performance has been supported by acceleration of the consumer shift to digital, positive cost control and cost synergy extraction from the TI Media acquisition (c.£9m annualised savings delivered so far). Migration of TI Media sites to the Group’s Vanilla platform are underway, whilst Hawk (price comparison platform) has been successfully deploye

Digital transition accelerates

Future’s H1 results highlight the benefits of the Group’s diverse revenue model. Group sales grew 33% y/y to £144.3m (organic: +11%; N1Se: £145.0m), with AOP up 77% to £39.9m (organic: +40%; N1Se: £38.7m). Organic Media sales growth of +21% y/y reflects strong online user growth, with H1 average monthly online users up +26% to 253m, driving eCommerce sales up +68% organic. Online audience growth rapidly accelerated post lockdown (+66% y/y in March) supported by gaming and Live Sciences verticals

TI Media completion and Covid-19 update

Future has completed the acquisition of TI Media (the Group’s largest acquisition to date), following clearance from the Competition and Markets Authority (‘CMA’) and disposal of four small TI Media assets to satisfy competition remedies. The acquisition incorporates 38 new brands strengthening Future’s position in some segments whilst also helping to diversify the Group’s portfolio and offering new online audience creation avenues. Alongside the announcement the Group provides an update on Covi

H1’20 pre-close: cash ahead

Future has announced a pre-close trading update for H1’20 highlighting continued strong online audience growth which is further driving eCommerce and digital advertising revenue streams. Recent weeks have been unprecedented, however the Group continues to see limited impact to online consumer behavioural trends (Feb audience traffic: +2% month on month per ComScore), whilst in Magazine y/y growth in Grocers is partly offsetting declines in travel outlets. Key metrics are holding up well, and the

TI Media CMA update: progressing as expected

Future has announced an update regarding the acquisition of TI Media. The Competition and Markets Authority (‘CMA’) has found that the acquisition of TI Media does not raise competitive concerns subject to the sale of 3 closely competing products. The Group is now in discussions with the CMA on potential remedies to mitigate competitive issues and proceed with the transaction as soon as practicable. The update is in line with our expectations, with a prudent £10m revenue adjustment and no procee

Minimal Covid-19 impact expected

Future Group has announced the outcome of a management review into the potential impact from Covid-19 on forecasts. As we would expect, the conclusion is that there will be no impact to profits in FY’20E or FY’21E, with Covid19 not showing signs of disrupting strong Group underlying online fundamentals. The Group’s events revenue stream (6% of Group revenues, c.2% of profits) has seen two near-term events rescheduled, although these are still forecast to land in the current financial year (July

CMD flags strong near-term opportunities

We take the opportunity after last week’s Capital Markets Day to review key themes touched on by management, and the impact on likely future performance. Takeaways impacting organic growth are: 1) The speed at which migrations/ launches occur with Vanilla is faster than previously expected; 2) Video Content and Intent Marketing opportunities open up new streams; and 3) The Group has more potential to generate value from back catalogue content than previously thought. Organic Media sales growth o

Capital Markets Day – a Future view

Future’s Capital Markets Day yesterday highlighted the Group’s continued success in identifying, developing and monetising new audiences and content and driving strong organic growth. The CTO’s run through of the tech stack presented a platform in complete alignment with Group strategy, able to spin-up new sites impressively quickly, fully integrated with Ecom and Adtech back-ends. The walk-through of an example article life-cycle also shows the strength of RoI potential for individual editorial

Audience growth outperforming expectations

Future’s audience growth metrics have proved stronger than expected in the first 4-months of FY’20E. Management now forecast financial performance to be ‘materially’ ahead of current FY’20E market expectations. We upgrade our FY’20E sales by 4%, and with outperformance indicated to be in higher margin profile eCommerce and digital display advertising areas, we upgrade FY’20E EBITDA by 8%. Given current macro uncertainty we leave FY’21E and FY’22E forecasts broadly unchanged although we flag heig

A big, bold Future

Shareholders yesterday approved the net £140m proposed acquisition of TI Media Group (‘TI Media’). The acquisition will be funded through a mix of debt and equity, and presents a compelling opportunity for Future to leverage its digital platform, ecommerce and content expertise, and global reach (TI Media continuing sales: >70% magazine). Post removal of broker restrictions, we now update forecasts for both TI Media (assumes endApril’20 completion) and Barcroft Studios acquisitions, with an addi

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 15 May 2023

Tremor - Q1 EBITDA +$2.5m ahead, FY23 & FY24 forecasts reiterated

Tremor has reported Q1 net revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of consensus, and reiterated the FY23 outlook. Q1 23 net revenue of $66.9m is +0.5% ahead of consensus at $66.5m, with the Programmatic division’s net revenue +6% yoy to $62.5m, including robust net revenue growth in CTV of +34% yoy to $21.3m. Q1 23 adjusted EBITDA of $8.9m is +$2.5m ahead of consensus, as management has focused on controlling cost while integrating the Amobee acquisition and delivering synergies, with the $65m annuali

Morning Note – 30 May 2023

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 May 23

24th May 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

CentralNic (CNIC LN) - Broadening growth drivers

Q1 revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and cash were all in line with the Q1 trading update in April and the outlook indicates its strong start to the year has continued into Q2. We expect growth in the remainder of the year to be boosted by its new partnership with Bing, new margin enhancing products and geographic expansion. We also see margins expanding as revenues continue growing whilst expenses remain steady. We upgrade our revenue forecasts based on a strong Q1 but conservatively keep our Adjusted E

SpaceandPeople (SAL LN) - Focus turns to growth

UK and European consumer demand is weak for well reported reasons, and the outlook for the sector is quite negative.

Q1 Trading Update

S4 Capital has reported Q1 net revenues of £219m, slightly ahead of DCe £209m, with LFL growth of +7% (+8% ex-Mondelez) and has reiterated its FY guidance for 8-12% growth and EBITDA margins of 15-16%.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Mar 23

14 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 Apr 23

24th April 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Software and Services Sector Quarterly review - May 2023

Deep Dive - Market reactions to SaaS transitions Our Deep Dive analysis indicates that the UK market is cautious on companies transitioning to SaaS business models. Investors have punished share prices of companies reporting declines in revenue growth and margins even though the declines are temporary and explained by the transition to SaaS. However, after the completion of SaaS transitions, companies are typically rewarded with high multiples for high recurring revenues and margins.

Growth Companies - Share & share alike Sell in May?

Support Group - finnCap Business Services quarterly sector note

Topic of the quarter: The Order Book Myth. Business Services has a range of companies with significant order books that should provide valuable visibility in these uncertain times. However, orders can be delayed or cancelled, definitions vary and delivering them profitably is an obvious challenge. We have screened the companies we keep an eye on in the wider sector for size of order book relative to sales, and then looked at their historic ability to deliver EPS at least in line with expectation

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 16/11/22

Dish of the day Joiners: BWP REIT joins the Wholesale Segment of the International Property Securities Exchange (IPSX). BWP REIT is a newly formed single asset company and has raised £35m by issuing 35m new ordinary shares at 100 pence per share to acquire Bridgewater Place, an office-led mixed use property in central Leeds and valued at £63m. The property is one of the tallest buildings in Yorkshire, comprising 234,000 sq. ft of office space, and is close to 90% let to EY, as well as multinatio

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 18 Jan 23

18 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

SHORE CAPITAL - Share & share alike