Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on GlobalData. We currently have 34 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
H1 revenue and EBITDA are ahead and underpinned by healthy cash generation. The 25% EBITDA margin objective has been achieved and the Company is now targeting 30% and we expect even higher in the long term given the likely maturity profile of a data business with a highly efficient model. Turning to trading the outlook appears well underpinned with 15% total deferred revenue growth and a very impressive 13% organic rate which implies a sharp acceleration from an already healthy 7% in H1. If it were not for an expected cost ramp in H2 (slightly delayed from H1) and the shaky macro picture we would likely be upgrading given the underlying strength of trading. The stock has begun re-rating again and we expect this to continue as trading confirms a robust picture. Peer valuations have been rising, in part due to the potential part disposal of Argus Media for c10x sales. Using the current 2019 peer multiple average of 8.6x EV/Sales suggests a value per share of 1,247p for 2019 and applied to 2020 1,330p.
The Company is holding a Capital Markets Day today. DATA is seeking to become the Bloomberg of a number of vertical markets and the worlds trusted source of strategic industry intelligence. This will be an excellent opportunity to hear about data sets, product innovation and growth/execution drivers within a very large market. In addition it is likely we will hear about how the more recent acquisitions, MEED and Research Views, have fitted in. The stock has tended to trade around the mid-twenties EV/EBITDA level on a prospective basis. With the acquisition on track and a good organic growth outlook the stock is likely to continue to re-rate back to this level.
GlobalData has delivered another strong year of growth; the integrations of MEED and RV are on plan and sales are continuing to grow at a healthy level. GlobalData’s unwavering vision and execution, to become the Bloomberg of the vertical markets by being the world’s trusted source of strategic industry intelligence, is producing strong financial results and continues to build value.
Interim results confirm several positives for GlobalData. It has reported significant organic growth in key metrics. This should continue given the increase in deferred revenue, much of which will contribute to H2. Integration of the recent acquisitions (MEED and RVL) appears to be going well, bringing new addressable markets to bear. Finally, cashflow dynamics are positive, supporting the ability to make further acquisitions in a sector with scope for consolidation. The Group's growth status is reflected in relatively high short-term ratios. However, on longer term cashflow analysis, theoretical values are all higher than the current level.
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Retail headwinds prompt downgrades despite strong pipeline | Dialight (DIA LN) H1: Getting to grips with manufacturing issues | GlobalData (DATA LN) Ahead on revenue, profit and cash | River and Mercantile Group (RIV LN) AuM +3% in Q4, plenty of positives | RM Secured Direct Lending (RMDL LN) Critical mass achieved | Springfield Properties (SPR LN) Significant land agreement increases GDV by 17%
Companies: CLG DIA DATA RIV RMDL SPR
GlobalData has acquired the Research Views Group (RV) business for £90m in shares and assumed c£8.4m of debt. GlobalData will be able to exploit the RV sector datasets through its highly efficient platform. This includes leveraging RV by selling to a wider range of customers (professional and public body as well as existing industry) and by adding additional products that GlobalData has developed. This creates a multi-dimensional growth profile for the acquired assets and leverages GlobalData’s investment. While there will be some immediate accretion to earnings for 2018 that grows in 2019, we expect the long term will yield considerably more as each sector is optimised. This is yet another strong move to advance GlobalData’s growth potential. Based on our peer based EV/Sales valuation approach the intrinsic value of GlobalData is on its way to £10 per share.
Centaur Media (CAU LN) AGM statement – trading in-line | Elektron Technology (EKT LN) Hidden value | GlobalData (DATA LN) Exploiting the GlobalData model |Horizon Discovery Group (HZD LN) Possible offer by Abcam illustrates attractive growth prospects | James Fisher & Sons (FSJ LN) Trading in line; good contract momentum | Springfield Properties (SPR LN) Acquisition of Dawn Homes to accelerate growth
Companies: CAU EKT DATA HZD FSJ SPR
The Company has followed up its initial announcement with regard to the acquisition of Research Views Limited. The key extracts from the announcement are set out below. We do not expect to formally review our forecasts until after the completion, which is expected to follow the General Meeting on 24 April 2018.
GlobalData's 2017 final results highlighted three important elements which inform our positive view of its prospects; organic growth, acquisition integration and visibility of its revenues (c75%). In combination, this allows for upgrades to our 2018 and 2019 forecasts. GlobalData's proprietary data and content, alongside its knowledge within each of its industries enables it to support clients. It has a large addressable market and is not limited by opportunity. Potentially adding further industries would further increase its footprint. We believe that the Group will make further progress in this regard during 2018. On valuation, our DCF model suggests a theoretical value more than 10.0% higher than the current level.
Revenue and EBITDA results for the full year are ahead of expectations on the back of strong trading. Revenues rose a total of 22% (15% organic) driven by sales execution. Strong sales has also boosted the deferred revenue balance by 32% to over £60m, supporting a strong outlook for 2018 and underlining the quality of revenues. The group is pushing ahead with commercialising its product by extending its addressable market yet again, boosting the ultimate growth potential of the business. EBITDA growth was 14% despite investment. Healthy trading and visibility (c75% estimated by Company) helps offset the likely US$ headwind likely in H2’18 meaning we have maintained our recently upgraded forecasts. Based on our peer-based approach to valuation we estimate an intrinsic value of 914p, thus implying some further significant upside potential for the stock. Another material acquisition could add more value.
Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) Interims contain no surprises, AST/Le Vet acq now complete | Dialight (DIA LN) Are we nearly there yet? | Eckoh (ECK LN) US secure payments win and new US partnership | GlobalData (DATA LN) Results driven by strong trading | Photo-Me International (PHTM LN) Appointment of CFO | Senior (SNR LN) Solid results and outlook | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) REIT placing complete, 140p+/share intrinsic value
Companies: DPH DIA ECK DATA PHTM SNR SGM
Abzena (ABZA LN) US contract win highlights successful services integration | CVS Group (CVSG LN) Still top pedigree | First Derivatives (FDP LN) Acquisition in telco vertical | GlobalData (DATA LN) Acquisition of MEED Media | Photo-Me International (PHTM LN) Growth at inflection point, no need for cold towel in Laundry
Companies: DATA CVSG ABZA FDP PHTM
GlobalData has made a small acquisition of some construction project market focused assets. The information business operates a similar data subscription model and also has some journalists which will help bolster the small expansion (to c70) that GlobalData has made in this area. This helps support the army of analysts and researchers (c2,000) underpinning the group data products. There is also a favourable overlap with the existing GlobalData sectors as the business has information on health, technology and consumer market related projects. In addition the acquisition will help enhance the group sales capacity and capability in the region. We expect the transaction to be enhancing in 2018 and put our forecasts under review pending formal revision.
GlobalData's interim results demonstrate the breadth of its offering and the success of its recent acquisition strategy. It has reported robust growth in all its KPIs, not least a 20.0% increase in the interim dividend. Considering these results and a confident outlook statement, we have increased our adjusted current year and 2018 forecasts by 9.0% and 14.0% respectively.
Alpha Financial Markets Consulting— Global provider of specialist consultancy services to the asset and wealth management industry. Due Oct. Revenue of £6.7 million for the year ended 31 March 2011 to £43.6 million for the year ended 31 March 2017. Offer TBA. Due 11 Oct. Cora Gold— West African focused gold exploration business, significantly enlarged by the amalgamation of the gold exploration assets in Mali and Senegal of Hummingbird Resources and Cora Gold's former parent, Kola Gold. Raising £3.45m at 16.5p. Mkt Cao £9.07m. Springfield Properties—Scottish housebuilder. “Our turnover exceeded £100 million for the first time this year and now we employ around 500 people. This IPO is the next step in our growth.” Expected Mid October. Offer TBA. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
Companies: BXP RWS DATA FIF TLY MIRA VAST MPO DUKE SOLG
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on GlobalData. We currently have 34 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
|03Oct19 07:00||RNS||Directorate Change|
|29Jul19 07:00||RNS||Unaudited Interim Report|
|19Jul19 07:00||RNS||Notice of Results|
|23May19 07:00||RNS||Notice of Capital Markets Day|
|26Apr19 12:57||RNS||Director/PDMR Dealings|
|23Apr19 16:20||RNS||Results of AGM|
|28Mar19 07:00||RNS||Annual Report and Accounts and Notice of AGM|
In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.
Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Microsoft unveiled the new Surface Duo, which runs on Android, at its annual hardware event on Wednesday. The folding phone features two side-by-side 5.6-inch displays that are connected by a 360-degree hinge. Microsoft said it partnered with Google to “bring the best of Android” to the device, while incorporating elements of Windows 10X, a new operating system meant for hybrid devices. It can also run two different apps at the same time. Specifically, the Surface Neo will rely on a new "Expression" of its Windows 10 operating system called Windows 10X.
Companies: KAPE EYE IMO
The NFC rating has come under pressure due to a combination of macro concerns and a 1% organic revenue decline just reported for H1 FY2109. The organic decline is largely driven by two of the seventeen portfolio businesses with organic growth elsewhere in the portfolio improving from previous data points. We expect the issues at Beyond to correct through H2 which, combined with healthy organic growth elsewhere in the portfolio and a full contribution from Health Unlimited, leads us to upgrade our FY 2020 expectations. NFC now trades at a PE discount to both the Agency and Small Cap Media peer groups despite a superior growth profile. The balance sheet remains comfortable.
Companies: Next Fifteen Communications Group
Future Plc has today announced the achievement of accelerated earn-out payments related to the acquisition of Mobile Nations in March’19. Deferred consideration of $55m (50% cash/ 50% new shares) becomes payable, with management assuming the achievement of an $11.5m EBITDA contribution from Mobile Nation operations to March’20. Mobile Nations management team will continue to work within Future within the newly created Future Labs, tasked with driving additional organic growth by integrating new initiatives, businesses, tools and processes once they reach a suitable maturity level. Future management continue a strong record quickly bedding down new acquisitions. The modest outperformance in Mobile Nations performance is largely offset by a marginally bigger than expected share base increase. We make no changes to our forecasts however at this time.
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
Interims revealed broadly flat underlying revenue performance, with adjusted operating losses narrowing to £1.3m (H1’18: (1.8m)). Financial performance was secondary however, to the news that management have now completed the strategic disposal program, receiving £16.0m of net proceeds in the period. £5m of disposal proceeds are due to be returned to shareholders as part of a 3.5p/share dividend payable on 25 October (inclusive of 2p/share special dividend), with further returns to shareholders in 2020 subject to performance. Management expect the completion of the disposal program and simplification of the business model to enable a £5m reduction in annual costs. The Group has also announced its MAP22 strategy targeting revenue acceleration and cost efficiencies alongside a new progressive dividend policy targeting a 40% pay-out ratio of adjusted earnings or 1p/share, whichever is higher. We have no forecasts in the market at this time; however with the disposal program complete and new strategy outlined we will look to update the market in due course.
Companies: Centaur Media
M&C held a very positive meeting highlighting the strong entrepreneurial culture and success of dynamic units that stand profitably on their own two feet. M&C is able to differentiate itself from the large global agencies who are struggling to grow at present. Their targeted approach to offices, lower exposure to FMCG/broad sector diversification and minimal exposure to traditional media buying is proving itself. The growth dynamics of the services they offer was on show with Mobile, Talent and Sports & Entertainment units explaining their positioning and attractive dynamics. M&C has continued to deliver over the long term; it weathered the credit crisis and has gone on to outperform the market. The shares look good value and we see 400p as the next objective. Quality and consistency remain highly attractive traits. M&C is on the path to becoming a rare beast, a mid-cap agency. BUY.
Companies: M&C Saatchi
Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.
Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L
ReAssure Group plc - The Group is a leading closed book life insurance consolidator in the United Kingdom with 4.3m policies, £68.7 billion of assets under administration on a Post-L&G Illustrative Basis. It is considering a premium listing segment of the main market. Voyager AIR The Company will focus on the acquisition, leasing and management of primarily widebody aircraft, with asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited he IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m· IMC Exploration Group (NEX: IMCP), focused on acquiring and exploring prospecting licence areas which have high potential for natural resource, is looking to admit its shares to the standard list and will withdraw for the NEX Exchange. TBC Uniphar, a diversified healthcare services business with a workforce of over 2,000, is looking to join AIM. Raise TBC, expected mid-July 2019
Companies: SRT CHH VELA CREO ASH MIRA ECO AQX ARCM DRV
Cello has acquired Innovative Science Solutions LLP (ISS) for an initial $6.4m in cash (maximum $10.5m). ISS is a scientific consulting firm specialising in strategic counsel and regulatory support for the healthcare industry in the US. It adds a new and key component to Cello’s offering of technical services along critical drug development pathways. The addition of ISS is in line with the group’s strategy of growing its technical services offering in the US healthcare market and we have upgraded our FY 2019E EPS by 2% and FY 2020E by 7%, after allowing for investment in headcount to support growth. We continue to expect the group to have net cash at December 2019E, meaning further enhancing additions could be financed from existing resources if opportunities can be found. We have raised our target price to 160p from 145p, valuing Cello at a 30% discount to peers on a P/E basis.
Companies: Cello Health
The update on the West Newton is notable in detailing a potentially material oil discovery, as well as the long-mooted gas discovery. In particular, the operator (Rathlin Energy) has now confirmed that the West Newton project contains an estimated gross 151 feet oil column located below a gross 66 feet gas column within the Kirkham Abbey formation. Deloitte will now be commissioned to prepare a CPR to assess volumetrics at West Newton and to undertake an economic evaluation applicable to a material oil development with an associated gas cap. This exciting news will inevitably result in changes to the development programme for the asset.
Companies: Reabold Resources
Mobile Tornado Group plc* (MBT.L, 4.7p/£18.2m) Interims: Revenue growth and moving toward profitability (18.09.19) | Newmark Security plc* (NWT.L, 0.8p/£3.7m) Prelims: Revenue growth and return to profit (19.09.19) | Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 11.0p/£32.7m) Further expansion of TownNews deployment (19.09.19) | MTI Wireless Edge Ltd* (MWE.L, 30.5p/£26.2m) Contract win: Military antennas (23.09.19) | Gfinity plc* (GFIN.L, 4.2p/£20.4m) Update: Community growth (23.09.19)
Companies: MBT NWT BIRD MWE GFIN
Cello operates within a $30bn healthcare outsourced advisory market supported by 5% annual R&D growth. This market is defensive and growing. In many respects the challenge is less about finding work but securing the staff to complete it. Consequently, management has over the past few years focused on hiring, training and retaining talent and the benefits are now coming through. H1 net fees were up +6.8% and adjusted operating profit +12.3%. With PE actively acquiring in this sector and international peers on substantially higher ratings Cello’s reasonable valuation multiples are underpinned with good upside.
Companies: Cello Health
The revised guidance that accompanied the interim results reflects an increasingly adverse regulatory environment in Europe. The strategy now is to focus on higher margin activities in differently regulated markets such as personal finance. Visibility should accordingly be higher, producing a higher quality earnings stream. We expect some stabilisation in XLMedia's markets in 2020E.
These interims include three months of RhythmOne but the integration is ahead of schedule and they are presented as one. Taptica’s original Performance business continued to suffer in difficult markets and saw a sharp decline in H1. The impact of this has been mitigated by the addition of 3 months of RhythmOne to the extent that both H1 revenue and earnings are kept virtually unchanged YoY, with excellent cash generation. We are guided to ease FY forecasts but we note TRMR has achieved great efficiencies in Branding to maintain group blended margin despite the reduction in high-margin Performance sales. Looking ahead, TRMR has made an excellent strategic move into the booming video market, with its exchange up and running. It is well funded, streamlined and future new business on the platform should drop straight through to profit.
Companies: Tremor International