Strong start to the year
H1 revenue and EBITDA are ahead and underpinned by healthy cash generation. The 25% EBITDA margin objective has been achieved and the Company is now targeting 30% and we expect even higher in the long term given the likely maturity profile of a data business with a highly efficient model. Turning to trading the outlook appears well underpinned with 15% total deferred revenue growth and a very impressive 13% organic rate which implies a sharp acceleration from an already healthy 7% in H1. If it were not for an expected cost ramp in H2 (slightly delayed from H1) and the shaky macro picture we would likely be upgrading given the underlying strength of trading. The stock has begun re-rating again and we expect this to continue as trading confirms a robust picture. Peer valuations have been rising, in part due to the potential part disposal of Argus Media for c10x sales. Using the current 2019 peer multiple average of 8.6x EV/Sales suggests a value per share of 1,247p for 2019 and applied to 2020 1,330p.
29 Jul 19
Capital Markets Day
The Company is holding a Capital Markets Day today. DATA is seeking to become the Bloomberg of a number of vertical markets and the worlds trusted source of strategic industry intelligence. This will be an excellent opportunity to hear about data sets, product innovation and growth/execution drivers within a very large market. In addition it is likely we will hear about how the more recent acquisitions, MEED and Research Views, have fitted in. The stock has tended to trade around the mid-twenties EV/EBITDA level on a prospective basis. With the acquisition on track and a good organic growth outlook the stock is likely to continue to re-rate back to this level.
23 May 19
Another strong year of growth
GlobalData has delivered another strong year of growth; the integrations of MEED and RV are on plan and sales are continuing to grow at a healthy level. GlobalData’s unwavering vision and execution, to become the Bloomberg of the vertical markets by being the world’s trusted source of strategic industry intelligence, is producing strong financial results and continues to build value.
25 Feb 19
GlobalData Update - Interim Update: Set Fair
Interim results confirm several positives for GlobalData. It has reported significant organic growth in key metrics. This should continue given the increase in deferred revenue, much of which will contribute to H2. Integration of the recent acquisitions (MEED and RVL) appears to be going well, bringing new addressable markets to bear. Finally, cashflow dynamics are positive, supporting the ability to make further acquisitions in a sector with scope for consolidation. The Group's growth status is reflected in relatively high short-term ratios. However, on longer term cashflow analysis, theoretical values are all higher than the current level.
01 Aug 18
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Retail headwinds prompt downgrades despite strong pipeline | Dialight (DIA LN) H1: Getting to grips with manufacturing issues | GlobalData (DATA LN) Ahead on revenue, profit and cash | River and Mercantile Group (RIV LN) AuM +3% in Q4, plenty of positives | RM Secured Direct Lending (RMDL LN) Critical mass achieved | Springfield Properties (SPR LN) Significant land agreement increases GDV by 17%
DATA CLG DIA RIV RMDL SPR
30 Jul 18
Exploiting the GlobalData model
GlobalData has acquired the Research Views Group (RV) business for £90m in shares and assumed c£8.4m of debt. GlobalData will be able to exploit the RV sector datasets through its highly efficient platform. This includes leveraging RV by selling to a wider range of customers (professional and public body as well as existing industry) and by adding additional products that GlobalData has developed. This creates a multi-dimensional growth profile for the acquired assets and leverages GlobalData’s investment. While there will be some immediate accretion to earnings for 2018 that grows in 2019, we expect the long term will yield considerably more as each sector is optimised. This is yet another strong move to advance GlobalData’s growth potential. Based on our peer based EV/Sales valuation approach the intrinsic value of GlobalData is on its way to £10 per share.
03 May 18
Centaur Media (CAU LN) AGM statement – trading in-line | Elektron Technology (EKT LN) Hidden value | GlobalData (DATA LN) Exploiting the GlobalData model |Horizon Discovery Group (HZD LN) Possible offer by Abcam illustrates attractive growth prospects | James Fisher & Sons (FSJ LN) Trading in line; good contract momentum | Springfield Properties (SPR LN) Acquisition of Dawn Homes to accelerate growth
DATA CAU CKT HZD FSJ SPR
03 May 18
Conditional acquisition agreement announced
The Company has followed up its initial announcement with regard to the acquisition of Research Views Limited. The key extracts from the announcement are set out below. We do not expect to formally review our forecasts until after the completion, which is expected to follow the General Meeting on 24 April 2018.
29 Mar 18
GlobalData Update - Good Visibility
GlobalData's 2017 final results highlighted three important elements which inform our positive view of its prospects; organic growth, acquisition integration and visibility of its revenues (c75%). In combination, this allows for upgrades to our 2018 and 2019 forecasts. GlobalData's proprietary data and content, alongside its knowledge within each of its industries enables it to support clients. It has a large addressable market and is not limited by opportunity. Potentially adding further industries would further increase its footprint. We believe that the Group will make further progress in this regard during 2018. On valuation, our DCF model suggests a theoretical value more than 10.0% higher than the current level.
02 Mar 18
Results driven by strong trading
Revenue and EBITDA results for the full year are ahead of expectations on the back of strong trading. Revenues rose a total of 22% (15% organic) driven by sales execution. Strong sales has also boosted the deferred revenue balance by 32% to over £60m, supporting a strong outlook for 2018 and underlining the quality of revenues. The group is pushing ahead with commercialising its product by extending its addressable market yet again, boosting the ultimate growth potential of the business. EBITDA growth was 14% despite investment. Healthy trading and visibility (c75% estimated by Company) helps offset the likely US$ headwind likely in H2’18 meaning we have maintained our recently upgraded forecasts. Based on our peer-based approach to valuation we estimate an intrinsic value of 914p, thus implying some further significant upside potential for the stock. Another material acquisition could add more value.
26 Feb 18
Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN) Interims contain no surprises, AST/Le Vet acq now complete | Dialight (DIA LN) Are we nearly there yet? | Eckoh (ECK LN) US secure payments win and new US partnership | GlobalData (DATA LN) Results driven by strong trading | Photo-Me International (PHTM LN) Appointment of CFO | Senior (SNR LN) Solid results and outlook | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) REIT placing complete, 140p+/share intrinsic value
DATA DPH DIA ECK PHTM SNR SGM
26 Feb 18
N+1 Singer - GlobalData - Acquisition of MEED Media
GlobalData has made a small acquisition of some construction project market focused assets. The information business operates a similar data subscription model and also has some journalists which will help bolster the small expansion (to c70) that GlobalData has made in this area. This helps support the army of analysts and researchers (c2,000) underpinning the group data products. There is also a favourable overlap with the existing GlobalData sectors as the business has information on health, technology and consumer market related projects. In addition the acquisition will help enhance the group sales capacity and capability in the region. We expect the transaction to be enhancing in 2018 and put our forecasts under review pending formal revision.
11 Dec 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 11-12-2017
Abzena (ABZA LN) US contract win highlights successful services integration | CVS Group (CVSG LN) Still top pedigree | First Derivatives (FDP LN) Acquisition in telco vertical | GlobalData (DATA LN) Acquisition of MEED Media | Photo-Me International (PHTM LN) Growth at inflection point, no need for cold towel in Laundry
DATA CVSG ABZA FDP PHTM
11 Dec 17
GlobalData Update - Information is King
GlobalData's interim results demonstrate the breadth of its offering and the success of its recent acquisition strategy. It has reported robust growth in all its KPIs, not least a 20.0% increase in the interim dividend. Considering these results and a confident outlook statement, we have increased our adjusted current year and 2018 forecasts by 9.0% and 14.0% respectively.
29 Nov 17
Small Cap Breakfast
Alpha Financial Markets Consulting— Global provider of specialist consultancy services to the asset and wealth management industry. Due Oct. Revenue of £6.7 million for the year ended 31 March 2011 to £43.6 million for the year ended 31 March 2017. Offer TBA. Due 11 Oct. Cora Gold— West African focused gold exploration business, significantly enlarged by the amalgamation of the gold exploration assets in Mali and Senegal of Hummingbird Resources and Cora Gold's former parent, Kola Gold. Raising £3.45m at 16.5p. Mkt Cao £9.07m. Springfield Properties—Scottish housebuilder. “Our turnover exceeded £100 million for the first time this year and now we employ around 500 people. This IPO is the next step in our growth.” Expected Mid October. Offer TBA. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
DATA BXP RWS FIF TLY VAST DUKE SOLG MIRA MPO
06 Oct 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 01-08-2017
Brooks Macdonald Group (BRK LN) FuM +5%, planned costs dampen margin progress | Elementis (ELM LN) Summit integration on track; guidance maintained | GlobalData (DATA LN) Revenues ahead | Grainger (GRI LN) Addition to PRS pipeline: £30.5m site in Milton Keynes | SDL (SDL LN) Investments impact profits; confident in LT strategy
DATA GRI SDL ELM BRK
01 Aug 17
N+1 Singer - GlobalData - Revenues ahead
Revenue growth has been stronger than expected. Fuelled by investment in product, infrastructure and sales, the business is trading very well. Despite extra investment H1 EBITDA is also ahead. With deferred revenues up 35% the outlook is robust. After including the benefit of a small acquisition we are lifting our revenue expectations significantly. At this stage we are holding back on an EBITDA upgrade for FY17 to allow for investment in appropriate scaling of infrastructure to support this faster than expected growth trajectory. We are however lifting our FY18 EBITDA in part to reflect the acquisition benefits and FY19 more as investment pays back. The GlobalData model is performing very well and with revenues gaining even greater scale the value of the business is rising even further.
31 Jul 17
Full Year 2016 Results
GlobalData has now transitioned itself into an integrated, multi-platform provider of business data. The FY2016 results are in many respects, the first full year in the new format with GlobalData trading as one global business. At the same time as rebranding and integrating core data platform acquisitions, GlobalData has delivered double-digit organic revenue and EDITDA growth. It is now well positioned to leverage sales across a global geographic platform and continues to invest accordingly. The business is evolving rapidly but the fundamentals remain the same. The business generates significant and recurring cash returns from the provision of proprietary content to large national and international clients. It is scalable, recession-resistant and has high barriers to entry.
03 Mar 17
Small Cap Breakfast
Anglo African Oil & Gas— Admission expected early March. Acquiring stake in producing near offshore field in the Republic of the Congo. Guinness Oil & Gas Exploration—Publication of prospectus. Seeking to raise £50m and invest in 15 exploration companies at launch, with plans to grow the portfolio to 30 positions during its lifetime. Admission now due 7 March
DATA BOD INFA ECR UJO AFC THR STAR
27 Feb 17
N+1 Singer - GlobalData - Growth coming through
Revenues have grown well on both a total basis and excluding the acquisitions. Profits have leapt 65% and momentum appears strong given deferred revenue has grown 97% in total and over 5% on an LFL basis (now standing at £38m and c41% of FY16e revenues). This helps highlight the quality of earnings. The Company has provided explicit guidance on dividends for the year (6.5p) which broadly equates to half of earnings. This signals substantial confidence in the improved structure of the business and its cash generation following the transactions at the start of the year. The shares have risen substantially (+56.7%), since our March note, but still offer good returns over the medium term driven by a 3 year EPS CAGR of 26.1%. We believe the shares are worth c384p now and have an estimated value of 487p in FY18. In addition we forecast another 23.1p of dividends over the FY16-FY18 period.
25 Jul 16
Step change in earnings quality and visibility
GlobalData has reported EBITDA of £12.0m in line with our expectation for 2015, rounding out another good year of development. The group’s step change in maturity leads to a maiden dividend 5x our estimate. More importantly the business made major strategic progress; Health has been added as a third major vertical and smaller sector units lacking critical mass have been sold. This leaves a focused business intelligence group targeting a combined US$10bn information market through three sectors. Visibility has leapt; pro-forma deferred revenues are £36m (c40% of FY16 N1Se revenues). As the group increases its exploitation of assets through sales expansion globally and enhances its products further we expect delivery against our 3 year earnings CAGR of 26.1% (100.4% over 3 years). GlobalData shares look good value now and for the medium term.
01 Mar 16
Transactions and name change
As per the January 19th 2016 announcement the Company is expected to confirm today the completion of the acquisition of GlobalData, the disposal of certain assets and change of name to GlobalData plc (Mnemonic: DATA). In addition the new management structure is also expected to take effect. These transactions result in an improved focus on three data verticals (Health, ICT and Consumer) with higher quality earnings and should enhance shareholder value. Many stocks have been impacted by equity market weakness, but we feel the growth story is very strong (3 year EPS CAGR is 28%) and investors should take advantage to buy a stock that has delivered good growth and has exceptional prospects. We estimate an intrinsic value of 330p based on FY16. This should rise to 461p over the forecast period implying a very attractive investment return opportunity. We see further potential after this period as margins rise. Please see our note (“focus on GlobalData) dated 23 December 2015 for more information about the transactions and management change.
25 Jan 16
Focus on GlobalData
Progressive is, subject to certain conditions being satisfied, acquiring a Health sector business intelligence operation with a proven growth record. This gives PRO a third market to pursue and raises the addressable market value to $10bn. Simultaneously PRO is disposing of assets that don’t align with these 3 core sectors. This is a transforming deal that will allow management to focus on the growth opportunity and utilise the additional infrastructure (particularly in the key US market) that the acquisition brings. The net result is a focused business with greater growth potential and higher earnings quality that should command a high rating. Given substantial development the Company is also adopting a more orthodox board structure, proposing to start paying a dividend and will change its name to GlobalData.
23 Dec 15
Good interims topped with a key acquisition
PRO delivered a good H1 performance with revenues up 13.7% even after further FX drag. Substantial investment has been made, as previously announced, yet EBITDA still rose 12.4%. Deferred revenue growth was strong again with a 23.5% increase to £20m. The Company also announced the acquisition of some consumer market assets from Informa. This acquisition will help scale the Consumer unit and provide better balance between the two main business Intelligence units, ICT and Consumer. The fit is good with PRO’s existing consumer offerings and while they will require some material investment and restructuring, the acquired assets should be slightly accretive to earnings in FY16 and materially in FY17. Business Intelligence will now generate c70% of group revenues, improving quality of earnings and visibility further.
27 Jul 15