Morning Note – 31 January 2023

Belvoir Group - Resilient and diverse business model supports long-term value

Belvoir’s FY 2022 year-end statement details a resilient performance against lower activity levels in the housing market and the high degree of uncertainty that the Autumn mini budget created. We have upgraded our FY 2022E EPS by +2% and now forecast a decline of less than -10% against the very strong 2021 comparative. The recurring lettings revenue accounts for c.56% of Group gross profit and is supported by rising rents. Rents on new tenancies were up +10.8% during the year and will progressiv

Morning Note – 5 September 2022

Belvoir Group - Strong pipelines, diversifying and potential to invest

Organic revenue growth in lettings of +3%, +6% in financial services and an 11% contribution from acquisitions combined to offset the natural decline in revenues from sales as the market normalised from very high levels, resulting in a +12% increase in group revenue (+1% organic). The benefits of continuing to invest both directly (by buying smaller competitors and diversifying into financial services) and indirectly (by loaning funds to franchisees to acquire – which yields both a financial ret

Morning Note – 1 August 2022

Belvoir Group - Lettings and Financial Services drive revenue growth

In a positive H1 statement, Belvoir has detailed revenue was up +11% in the six months to June 2022 despite 2021 being an exceptionally strong year for the property sector. This was driven by Management Service Fees up +1% (with c. +4% growth from Lettings more than offsetting a reduction in Sales as the residential property market normalises as expected) and revenue from Financial Services up +19% (including +12% from acquisitions). The number of mortgage advisers increased by +24% to 301 from

Morning Note – 26 May 2022

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 24/05/22

*A corporate client of Hybridan LLP Dish of the day Joiners: EnSilica (ENSI.L), has join AIM. EnSilica provides an end-to-end service for the design and supply of mixed signal ASICs, outsourcing certain elements such as the wafer fabrication of the manufacturing and packaging to third parties - otherwise known as a Fabless Semiconductor Model. ASICs are Integrated Circuits or semiconductor chips developed for a particular use or product rather than for general purpose usage. ASICs help

Morning Note – 24 May 2022

Belvoir Group - Investing in the Financial Services network

Belvoir has acquired TIME Group Ltd, an appointed representative of Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB) for an initial £3.7m cash cost. TIME provides mortgage and related financial services and is a good step forward in Belvoir’s growth strategy, within which the potential in Financial Services plays a key part. The initial cost represents 5.8x FY 2021 PBT and we have upgraded our FY 2022E EPS by +3% and 2023E by +7%. In FY 2021, Belvoir’s Financial Services division grew revenue by +44% organically an

Morning Note – 4 April 2022

Belvoir Group - Recurring, reliable Lettings and a substantial FS client base

Belvoir has reported a very strong set of FY 2021 results supported by housing transactions, but most importantly evidencing the long-term value and potential in growing the Lettings and Financial Services (FS) business. Revenue was up +37% (25% organic) and adj. EPS up +36%, all backed by strong cash flow. While housing transactions will likely now normalise, the group is well placed to continue to grow its Lettings business (which is benefiting from higher rents) and further expand its Financi

Support Group - finnCap Business Services quarterly sector note

Topic of the quarter: The Order Book Myth. Business Services has a range of companies with significant order books that should provide valuable visibility in these uncertain times. However, orders can be delayed or cancelled, definitions vary and delivering them profitably is an obvious challenge. We have screened the companies we keep an eye on in the wider sector for size of order book relative to sales, and then looked at their historic ability to deliver EPS at least in line with expectation

Uncertain outlook comes as no surprise

We take a positive view of Legal & General’s FY 22 results. Despite the tough environment, the Group managed to outperform expectations – something which was hardly a given for such a large asset manager. With L&G being widely exposed to the UK economy, it might be a call one does not want to make but the firm’s business remains one of spreads – as long as a default does not occur. We remain positive but concede that L&G embeds more risk than we had assumed.

Cooled by the distribution policy

Strong FY 22 results reported by Aviva, and another layer of distribution, but doubts around the soft guidance provided. We confirm our case that Aviva is an M&A opportunity to offer scale while having a much less complex structure.

Ambitious winds of change

M&G’s FY 22 results were strong. It was also the opportunity for new CEO Andrea Rossi to depict clearly his strategy for the upcoming months. While the impetus is clear and the objectives are ambitious, we rather believe in a structural improvement of the business (driven by the higher rates environment) than a commercial one.

Sentiment is changing

Interims show continued progress, as Made Tech has built on its FY22 break-out performance (sales: +120%) by growing sales a further 75% in 1H23. An exceptional feat, achieved through a strong b/f backlog (+133% y/y) and excellent sales execution in 1H23. This second point is pertinent, as it highlights how (notwithstanding macro headwinds) Made Tech has been able to land nine new customers in H1 (and more in Q3) such achieving >£60m bookings YTD. This achievement materially de-risks FY23&24 exp

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 06 Mar 23

6 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- A New Quarter, a New Upgrade

Time Finance has released a positive Q3/23A update for the period ending 28 February 2023. It follows a strong first half and shows continued momentum in the business. We are upgrading our FY23E revenue forecasts from £25.7m to £26m and FY23E PBT from £3.2m to £3.6m. Time's valuation looks deeply discounted on an FY24E P/E ratio of 5.8x and P/TNAV of 0.6x. We expect a material re-rating as management continue to deliver profitable growth and we believe upside risks to forecasts remain dominant.

TVL highlighted as strategic component of the UK’s critical minerals sector

Alkemy and its 100%-owned subsidiary Tees Valley Lithium (TVL) report that TVL’s planned lithium hydroxide refining facility at the Teesside Freeport, UK has been featured extensively in a new paper entitled “Midstream Processing and Refining: Unlocking Security of Supply”. The paper was published by the Critical Minerals Association United Kingdom (CMA UK) which aims to support the development of critical mineral supply chains in the UK.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 07 Mar 23

7 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 09 Mar 23

9 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

LIBERUM: Harworth* - Resilient performance in a rapidly changing property market

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Mar 23

14 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 01 Mar 23

01 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

PCI Pal - 1H sees accelerating revenue growth as TACV builds

The interims confirm acceleration in the already rapid revenue growth (+29% yoy in 1Q and now +33% yoy across 1H23), keeping the LBITDA in line with last year despite increased investment in product development and sales and marketing to seize new market opportunities (notably in Canada and Australia). PCIP remains on track for FY forecasts, which remain unchanged. Investment in the channel sales strategy is paying off with continued strong new customer sales; a record number of new contracts we

Oakley Capital Investments Ltd (OCI): 2022: NAV returns driven by EBITDA growth

The January trading statement announced NAV (662p per share), total NAV return (24%), NAV growth driven by EBITDA growth (65%), modest multiple expansion (35%), investments (£271m), realisations (£244m), available finance, including cash (£210m), and commitments (£929m). The detailed results announcement highlighted i) 2022 exits, on average, 70% above carrying value, ii) 22% investee company average earnings growth, iii) weighted average EV/EBITDA of 15.9x, below listed market levels, iii) a PE

FLASH: Pre-close update indicates a beat to our forecasts