Rainbow Rare Earths has published a prospectus. It has raised $8m to fast-track fully permitted high grade Gakara ‘rare earths’ project to production in Burundi. Intends to join the Standard List of the LSE.
Impact healthcare REIT— Intends to float on the main market. Seeks to raise £160m to acquire a portfolio of up to 58 care homes. Expected Admission 7 March.
Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
Companies: FRM ODX IQG MAB1 CEPS ESC CRU PTCM CNR RTC
Big Sofa Technologies— Schedule 1 from the b2b technology company providing video analytics at an enterprise level. Seeking to complete RTO of unlisted HubCo investments. Raising £6.1m. Target date 19 December.
ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m.
RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m
Creo Medical Group - UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.
Companies: MOS CLIN CCT BIRD IPX NAK CLNR FRM DFX CMCL
ValiRx (VAL.L) – CORP*: VAL401 development update | Sunrise Resources (SRES.L) – CORP: New subsidiary | Formation Group (FRM.L)*: INTERIM RESULTS
Companies: Sunrise Resources Formation Group
Politics will exert considerable influence on markets in 2016 with November’s US presidential election, the UK in/out referendum expected over the summer and the escalating tensions in the Middle East. In each situation, the outcome is not assured and this is likely to drive volatility. There is also scope for other surprises. As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve increased rates in December but the Fed’s rate forecasts (a full percentage point increase p.a. to 3.25% at the end of 2018) are more hawkish than market expectations (about 50bps higher for 2016 and 100bps for 2018). Were the Fed to raise rates per its forecasts, either the US and world economies are more buoyant than many believe or the Fed could imperil the recovery through tightening too quickly. The outlook for the US economy is reasonable with the lower oil price and increased employment benefiting consumer spending. The Eurozone countries will also enjoy the lower oil price as importers and growth is anticipated across many member states. The outlook for China and the countries that rely on exporting commodities to China is more mixed, however. Growth in China seems assured but many believe it will fall short of the official target of 6.5%. The first data points of 2016, the official PMI and Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, both came in below consensus and pointed to a further contraction in manufacturing. The news resulted in sharp falls in Chinese indices, triggering the market ‘circuit breakers’ that were created last September, and weakness in other global markets. India looks set to be the best performing large economy in 2016 up 7.8%, a slight improvement on 2015, another oil price beneficiary. The recessions in the other two BRICs countries (Russia and Brazil) look set to continue. Shifting from macro to micro, 2016 should prove the defining year for many AIM-listed resources companies and we expect the shake out that occurred in 2015 will continue as many micro-caps are unable to secure additional funding. Beyond resources, the outlook is more benign with a stable economic backdrop, further M&A activity and fund inflows looking for better returns.
Companies: ORR ADT AXM AMO AMP BOD CHL CLON ARK DCP EVG FISH FRM NAUT HDT KRS LTHM MRS MDZ MCC MTFB OCT PET PREM QRT RLH RDI SAV STAR SRES TAVI TECH VAL WRES SALV MARL THR URA ANR URU
Divergence looks set to dominate the final month of 2015 and set the tone for 2016. The European Central Bank is widely expected to extend its QE economic stimulus programme and could reduce its overnight deposit rate further in an attempt to boost inflation, and more stimulus could come from Japan and China. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve is now expected to lift rates from historic lows. Higher US rates will impact not only the cost of capital in the US but also emerging markets where growth remains much weaker and leverage high. The move by the ECB is unlikely to have a major impact, however, as it is an extension rather than a new tool and the headlines continue to be dominated by politics rather than financial markets (Isis, the refugee/migrant crisis, tensions between Russia and Turkey etc). The respective moves are likely to further weaken the euro in 2016. The UK sits somewhere in the middle. November’s Autumn Statement saw the Chancellor drop his tax credit reduction plans and benefit from a surprise £27bn improvement in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s five year public finances forecast, based on higher tax revenue and lower debt interest. The general shift away from austerity, the protection of tax credits and increased minimum wage should ensure further economic growth.
Companies: LTHM EVG TECH ADT QRT AMO AMP AGQ BOD CHL CLON ARK DCP KRS FISH FRM NAUT HDT MRS MDZ MCC MTFB OCT PET PREM RLH RDI SAV STAR ORR SRES TAVI VAL WRES SALV MARL THR URA URU
Formation Group (FRM.L) – CORP: Pre-close trading update | Hummingbird Resources (HUM.L): Interim results | Eckoh (ECK.L): Trading update | Richoux Group PLC (RIC.L): Interims
Companies: FRM HUM ECK RIC
Alexander Mining (AXM.L) – BUY*: Subscription | Formation Group (FRM.L) – CORP: Profit share distribution
Companies: Alexander Mining Formation Group
Premier African Minerals (PREM.L) – SPECULATIVE BUY*: RHA/Zulu update | MediaZest (MDZ.L) – CORP: Board appointment | Formation Group (FRM.L) – CORP: Profit share agreement
Companies: PREM MDZ FRM
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A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
With a new CEO, Amanda Blanc, Aviva’s shareholders could dream of a possible change in the group’s strategy, with a more focused insurance business. The new Chief has an opportunity to take painful decisions in a year where no one will require a high operating performance.
Companies: Aviva Plc
The Native Antigen Company (“NAC”) has been acquired by LGC for up to £18.0m – with the ongoing COVID pandemic highlighting the value of knowledge and execution in the infectious diseases space. Mercia invested in NAC via both its balance sheet and 3rd party funds. The exit represents a strong return for both sources of capital, validating complete connected capital to optimise value creation. For the balance sheet stake, the £5.2m proceeds represent a £2.5m gain on realisation (c.1.5% of our FY21e NAVps). Final Results will be announced next week, when we will review our forecasts. The shares are currently trading at a 45% discount to NAV (which is 20% cash). Today’s exit demonstrates justification for a much narrower discount, if not a premium, to conservative carrying values.
Companies: Mercia Technologies
Trading Well in Tough Market
Companies: Palace Capital
With the sale of The Native Antigen Company (NAC) for up to £18m in cash, Mercia expects to realise £5.2m (1.2p per share) for its 29.4% stake. This exit delivers another significant milestone in management’s strategy to achieve an evergreen funding model. Management has confirmed that the group is profitable on a day-to-day basis following the acquisition of the NVM VCT management contracts (NVM) in December 2019. NVM, together with additional allocations from the British Business Bank (BBB), has lifted AUM to c £800m. Management’s three-year strategy targets a sustainable, evergreen balance sheet with AUM of £1bn in FY22, with future investment commitments met through existing cash resources and realisations without the need for further recourse to the markets. Despite real progress, Mercia trades at 0.69x its September 2019 NAV, with the fee-earning funds business as further upside, not captured in an NAV-based calculation. FY20 results are due on 14 July 2020.
HgCapital Trust’s (HGT) 12-month NAV TR to end-March 2020 was a solid 13.8% despite the COVID-19 market downturn in March 2020 (ytd NAV performance since end-December 2019 was a 6.2% decline). The coverage ratio reached a historically low level (13% vs three-year average of 53%) after HGT notably increased its investment activity and commitments in Q120. However, a significant part of these new commitments will not be drawn in the near term. The board continues to review its future funding arrangements and may also opt out of a new investment without penalty across all funds. HGT’s portfolio focus is on the resilient software and technology sector and the manager expects a limited direct earnings impact on its portfolio from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Companies: Hgcapital Trust
Accelerating activity in to FY21
Companies: Manolete Partners
Hot on the heels of the Architas acquisition – announced 1st July, Liontrust has issued in line final results (£38.1m adj. PBT vs £38.3m consensus, 24p second interim dividend). An accompanying trading update also confirms that AuM bounced back in Q1 as markets recovered and net inflows were sustained at a record £971m for the quarter. The Architas acquisition – once completed later this year – stands to drive Liontrust through the £25bn AuM mark and bolster the existing multi-asset product offering and wider appeal to the current client base. As joint corporate broker, we have withdrawn forecasts pending the approval of the acquisition at the forthcoming general meeting.
Companies: Liontrust Asset Management
Beijing’s forced implementation of the Hong Kong security law threatens the region’s financial hub status. This is a potential game-changer for HSBC but it does not seem to come as a surprise for the group as confirmed by the acceleration of its investments in China or its efforts to secure a leading position on the RMB.
Ground Rents Income Fund (GRIO) has today released its interim results for the period ending 31 March 2020. The fully diluted NAV is 110.1p down marginally from previous NAV of 111.3p as at 30 September 2019 year-end. This valuation included a material valuation uncertainty clause as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has subsequently been removed since the period end for long dated ground rent valuations given the defensive nature of the income streams and continued market/transactional activity. The latest valuation represented a decrease on a like for like basis of £0.36 million or -0.3%. Two Interim dividends were paid during the six-month period ending 31 March totalling 1.98p, and a further dividend of 0.99p has been declared today (ex 16 July / payable 10 August). Dividend cover excluding the non-recurring litigation costs on Beetham Tower was 90%. Assuming a full year dividend of c4p this puts the shares on a flat yield of 4.9% and a discount of 26%.
Companies: Ground Rents Income Fund
Burford has announced its results for 2019. As previously indicated, these were lower than in the previous year. Revenue fell 17% from $430m in 2018 to $357m. Profit after tax, on Burford’s basis, declined 31% from $329m to $226m. As announced earlier, there will be no final dividend so only the interim dividend of ¢4.17 was paid for FY19. Unusually, Burford has also released a trading update for early 2020 alongside its main figures. Court results and arbitral awards have been obtained that would generate some healthy profits. Most notable is $200m in income ($300m in cash receipts) regarding which further legal review is unlikely.
Companies: Burford Capital
Gfinity plc* (GFIN.L, 1.625p/£14.0m) | Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 16.5p/£55.4m) | Tern plc* (TERN.L, 11.5p/£31.1m) | The Panoply Holdings (TPX.L, 72.5p/£39.9m)
Companies: GFIN BIRD TERN TPX
ICGT, the 39-year listed private equity (PE) investor, has delivered a total NAV return of 178% over 10 years (comparable FTSE All Share return 61%). Since Intermediate Capital became the manager in 2016, ICGT has earned mid-teen p.a. underlying returns every year. This has been achieved by leveraging the attractive PE market with incremental manager synergies. It has a concentrated portfolio of “high-conviction” investments (19% p.a. average returns over five years, 42% of portfolio, defensive growth focus) and a diversified third-party PE funds book. ICGT manages over-commitment tightly. The 33% discount to NAV is above peers.
Companies: ICG Enterprise Trust
Numis’ update for Q320 was positive, reflecting both the need for equity funding in the market and the strength of the group’s franchise as well as its ability to deal with current operating constraints. Subject to the market background in its final quarter, we now expect Numis to achieve a full-year result in line with or ahead of the high end of our previous scenario range.
Companies: Numis Corporation
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price £0.45: 1Q20 results/Bretaña expected to restart in July – 1Q20 financials are in line with expectations and 1Q20 production had been reported previously. At the end of 1Q20, current trade and other payables had been reduced to ~US$45 mm compared to ~US$55 mm at YE19. Most importantly. PetroTal continues to expect the Bretaña field to be re-opened this month. The contingent liability with Petroperu is estimated at US$25 mm at the current oil price and the company has entered into a financial swap for 0.46 mmbbl of oil with an ICE Brent reference price of US $40.58/bbl to cover the upcoming sale by Petroperu at the Bayovar port. This is a recovery story that we continue to like. It offers a combination of value, production and cash flow growth and reserves upside. We anticipate that the imminent reopening of the field with be an important catalyst to the share price.
i3 Energy (I3E LN): Reveals takeover target in Canada | Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production update | Aker BB (AKERBP NO): 2Q20 update in Norway | Energy (RRE LN): Recommended offer by Viaro Energy | Spirit Energy: Dry hole in Norway | Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Ukraine update | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN): 2Q20 update in Ukraine and Russia | Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): Operating update in Egypt and Vietnam | Sound Energy (SOU LN)C: Terms of Moroccan licence renegotiated | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): June production in Oman | Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Gas sales contract with ENEO in Cameroon terminated
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
14/07/2020: Aker BP (AKERBP NO) – 2Q20 results
15/07/2020: Premier Oil (PMO LN) – 1H20 update
13-17/07/2020: GeoPark (GPRK US) – 2Q20 update
Companies: I3E MAHAA JKX PHAR EQNR AKERBP ENI HUR PTAL REP RRE SOU TPL VOG OMV