Q1 2022 - Good momentum and strong cash flow

Neinor's Q1''s results looks good to us. Key highlights are the stable margins and the strong cash-flow generation. On the flip side co. has slowed down the pace of pre-sales to maximize prices. On-track for 2022 targets Neinor has delivered 866 homes during the quarter (up 2.5x yoy) with revenues up 2.8x year-on-year to EUR284m. EBITDA is also up 2.7x yoy to EUR50m beating consensus and BNPPE by 32% and 3% respectively. Though we anticipate a slowdown in deliveries to 300-400 units in Q2, Nei

Business as usual (for the moment)

We expect Q1 to be solid. So what of the medium and long term? We consider Neinor''s dilemma on Rental - crystallise value or drive future EBITDA? - plus the company''s resilience to a squeeze in both supply (construction costs) and demand (low affordability). Q1 2022: stable margins, in line with 2021 Neinor Homes will publish Q1 2022 next Tuesday, 10 May (aftermarket). We expect c.700 units delivered (vs. 345 units in Q1 2021), consistent with EUR288m revenues, EUR48m EBITDA and EUR25m net

The million-home opportunity

If you want to build one million homes over the next decade, where do you start? One choice might be Neinor, not only the leading house builder in Spain but also an entrant to the high-end build-to-rent segment. Neinor is aiming to tap into reigniting demand, market consolidation and a newly flourishing private rental market. We initiate with a valuation range of EUR11.4-14.9 per share. Rent or buy, Spain needs more homes The excess stock from the GFC has finally been absorbed and a new wave

Argos attempts a comeback

Home Retail Group (HRG) posted Q4 (8-week period ending 27 February 2016) and FY16 results slightly better than our estimates. In Q4, lfl revenue of Argos (core retail business) decreased by 1.1% and total revenue was up 1.9%, with a 3% contribution from new space. The non-electrical products (particularly furniture and general sports) and mobiles posted healthy growth, while jewellery and electrical products (gaming, tablets and white goods) witnessed a decline. Internet sales grew by 13% durin

Late Christmas for Home Retail

UK-based retail group Home Retail Group (HRG) has become flavour of the season, getting multiple acquisition bids in recent months. On one hand, it has just sold its stake in the DIY business ‘Homebase’ to Australian retail group, Wesfarmers (owner of supermarket chain ‘Coles’) for £340m (17x FY14EBIT), and on the other, two retailers (Sainsbury’s and Steinhoff) have shown interest in acquiring the remaining business ‘Argos’. - Sainsbury’s: The UK-based food retailer had reached an agreement wi

Q3 hamstrung by rickety Argos, while Homebase bids adieu

Home Retail posted Q3 FY15-16 results lagging market expectations as well as our estimates, pinned down once again by a bleeding Argos and the negative impact of Homebase store closures. Although Argos (c.72% of total revenue) clocked its highest-ever sales on Black Friday (+41% y-o-y), the subpar revenue growth in the rest of the quarter and depleted gross margins led the company to issue yet another profit warning (second in four months). As per the revised guidance, the benchmark PBT in FY15-

PBT guidance lowered; gross margin erosion amidst weak markets

Subdued performance in Argos in H1 16 (ending August) and uncertainty on Argos's Christmas season performance in H2 16 led the company to issue a profit warning. As for the new guidance, FY16 PBT (pre-exceptionals) is likely to be below the consensus range of £115-140m as further slippage of 50bp in the gross margin is expected in both businesses (Argos: down 75bp to 30.3% and Homebase: down 100bp to 47.5%). Total sales in H1 declined 2% to £2,628.5m; Argos was down 1.5% to £1,743m and Homeba

Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa, Canada, and operating in Canada and the US.

Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa, Canada, and operating in Canada and the US. It is helping physical stores and businesses quickly, safely, and less expensively deposit cash into their bank accounts, as well as replenishing notes and coins for store operations. The company uses its proprietary software platform to facilitate cash management, and its network is made up of a network of DropBoxes and NCR ATMs located in retail outlets. Clip also partners with Bri

Hardman & Co Monthly: October 2024

Feature article: Labour’s first Budget - Investors in their sights? Summary ► Budgets are always important for investors. ► The imminent Budget, at the end of October, will be doubly so, because it is the first from the new Labour government, and it has already signalled the need to fill an alleged £22bn black hole, while ruling out changes to more than half the tax base. That implies a lot of the pain will be felt by investors. ► This paper considers the impact of increases in rates for th

Morning Note – 30 September 2024

Impressive progress in H1'24, forecasts maintained

Global Smaller Companies

GSCT offers comprehensive exposure to small-caps worldwide…

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund - Rising revenues and big plans for the future

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (GRID) invests in utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) in Great Britain. The sector had a tough start to the year, due to a deterioration in revenue conditions, but GRID’s efforts to stabilise revenues and increase capacity are paying off. The manager, Ben Guest, is looking forward to a significant improvement in revenue in 2025, underpinned by a large, contracted earnings base, and plans for new pipeline projects, further augmentations to GRID’s

Balancing act

Over the past three years, trusts with blended approaches rather than a strong tilt to growth or value have been at or near the top of the pack across the developed equities sectors, benefitting from their flexibility in a period of extreme style gyrations.

HICL Infrastructure

HICL’s increased dividend target comes amidst other positive signs…

Henderson Far East Income - Asian income fund with 5.9% dividend yield

Henderson Far East Income (HFEL) is a pan-Asian investment company with a focus on achieving a high and growing income as well as capital growth. While the emphasis on income will naturally lead the management team to focus on some older-economy sectors where there is a long history of rewarding investors with dividends, lead manager Mike Kerley reports that an increasing number of high-growth technology stocks in Asia are now generating healthy cash payouts. However, the manager retains a tilt

Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust - Under-owned, undervalued & under-appreciated

Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust’s (TEMIT’s) co-managers Chetan Sehgal (lead manager) and Andrew Ness consider that the case for emerging markets is not well understood. Hence, they believe that the regions remain under-owned, undervalued and under-appreciated, which provides an interesting opportunity for global investors. There are several powerful trends supporting the superior economic growth prospects of emerging markets versus those in developed regions, including demographics,

Trading in-line and delivering strategic progress

Today’s AGM update confirms that Vp continues to perform well, reiterating full year expectations despite challenges in certain markets (notably construction). Meanwhile, the new management team is progressing the refreshed strategic priorities set out in June. Broad market trends are consistent with those reported in recent periods. Infrastructure remains supportive, with good momentum and strong demand in transmission, water and civil engineering, although rail has seen a slower start to the

Allenby Capital TMT Update - 09.09.24 - ENSI.L, CPX.L, TERN.L, CHSS.L, ELEG.L, CNC.L

Please find below our weekly update covering themes that we feel that are of interest to investors and participants in the small and mid-cap TMT sector as well as commentary on recent newsflow.

Gore Street Energy Storage + (GSF, House Stock at 65p) - Transformational year ahead

PCI Pal - FY24 revenue growth of +20%, strong partner momentum

PCI Pal’s FY24 trading update shows FY24E revenue growth of +20% to £18.0m, strong traction with major partners, and FY24E net cash in line with our previous £4.3m. FY24E revenue of £18.0m includes a £0.7m impact from a specific project where the customer has paid in full and the company has delivered the services, but following discussions with the auditors the Board has decided to defer the revenue from FY24 into FY25. The remaining £0.4m revenue change vs our previous FY24E forecast reflects

Morning Note – 29 August 2024