UBM Development (UBS AV) - Remaining in pole position for market reopening / chg.

UBM released final FY 2023 results which were in line with the preliminary figures published in March. Going forward, the company’s ESG focus should provide a competitive edge for the eventual market reopening.

UBM Development (UBS AV) - Off to a good start / Muted Q4’23 expected; chg

UBM received the building permit for the Timber Peak project in Mainz, which should yield proceed of €60-65m in 2025e. Moreover, as the macro-environment is easing, a sale of the Timber Pioneer might already happen in 2024.

UBM Development - Reinvented business model

In response to COVID-19, UBM Development shifted its strategic focus away from hotels to residential and office real estate, with particular emphasis on ESG principles. Consequently, its €2.3bn pipeline as at end-2020 (vs €2.5bn at end-2019) included €1.25bn in residential projects (covering 3,000+ units) and €750m in ‘new type’ office investments after it re-classified all hotel projects in pre-construction stage. Hotels already under construction are scheduled for completion in FY21 but are un

A quality Events business to be swallowed by Informa

UBM produced satisfactory FY 17 results with total revenue up 16.2% on a reported basis (reflecting the Allword integration) to £1,002.9m in line with recent guidance of about £1bn. Revenues were up +4.1% underlying, driven by annual events, up 5.3% organically (guidance was for at least +5%) compared to +3.1% in FY16. Adjusted OP reached £294.2m (AV: £281m), reflecting a solid 210bp margin improvement to 29.3% and ahead of our own c.28% forecast. Diluted adjusted EPS increased by 34.5% to 53.

Ahead of a wedding with Informa!

Informa (£6bn market capitalisation) has just officially announced a bid for rival and competitor UBM (£3bn capitalisation) whose shareholders will each be offered 1.083 Informa shares and 163p in cash. Informa will hold 65.5% of the new firm, with UBM owning 34.5%. Note that Informa has said that the Boards of the two companies are expected to approve the deal. The latter will create an events giant as UBM is the world no.2 events organiser behind RELX.

Final year of the three-year plan

UBM reported H1 17 revenue of £448.4m, up by 18% or +8.3% at CER. Organic growth reached +1.9%, of which +2.7% for Events and -2.1% for Online and Marketing Services 5OMS). The consolidated adjusted OP rose by 19.6% to £111.7m, i.e. a margin improving by 30 bps to 24.9% from 24.6% (note that the medium term goal is for 30% i.e. 280bps above the FY16 level). Adjusted earnings were 23.6% higher at £77.5m, with diluted adjusted EPS rising by 37.3% to 19.5p (+27.5% at CER). FCF pre-dividend improv

A pure-play events business which is delivering

UBM produced satisfactory FY 16 results with continuing revenue up 12.1% to £863m, more or less in line with our forecasts (£858m) with Events up 3.1% underlying. Total revenues were boosted by a significant forex impact (+£92m or 11.9%; sterling weakness linked) as well as £26.1m or 3.4% coming from the perimeter impact and were nearly flat at CER (+0.1%). Continuing adjusted OP rose by 19.2% to £234.8m (+£37.m after +£31.3m from forex and -£12.3m due to the down biennial year impact at Events

Acquiring a pure-play events business

UBM announced in mid-December the acquisition of Allworld Exhibitions, a leading privately-owned Asian exhibitions business (250 employees) for a cash consideration valuing the business at US$485m. The deal will be fully debt-funded with existing credit facilities and a new $365m bridge facility to be replaced with new longer term debt in due course.

N+1 Singer - UBM - In-line trading update

In a short trading update UBM confirms it has continued to perform in line with expectations. Major event performances since the Interims appear to be on trend and acquisitions are also on plan. The company signals no change to the trading outlook. In our last comment we highlighted the immediate value in the stock and it has performed well (+11.4%) as expected. We also commented that there was further upside to forecasts if FX rates held (our existing estimates are based on $1.32 vs spot of c1.

Focus remains on “Events First” implementation

Reporting its H1 16 results at end-July, UBM confirmed that the full-year trading outlook was unchanged, except for the positive forex impact linked to sterling’s weakness (only 10% of total revenues in the UK), with more coming through over the important H2 period. Beyond currency, management expects little direct impact from Brexit on its businesses. The group otherwise produced satisfactory H1 16 results with continuing revenue up 8% to £380m (after a +6.5% impact from forex) and +1% organic

N+1 Singer - MS - Media - BREXIT Potential Impacts and Thoughts

There are two main issues to consider for the Media sector, UK recession and currency. Large and mid-cap B2B is likely to be a net beneficiary of sterling weakness as they are heavily exposed to US$, while exposure amongst small cap B2Bs is typically modest but may well be enough to offset any domestic weakness. B2B looks a good safe haven and Informa (TP690p, Hold) and UBM (TP605p, Buy) look good value. Marketing Services is a barbell subsector; WPP’s might overseas and in its offering will pro

Completion of PRNewswire disposal

UBM today released the final details regarding the return to shareholders in the aftermath of the PRNewswire disposal (please refer to our 22 March 2016 Latest) to Cision, controlled by GTCR Canyon Holdings Cayman L.P.

Morning Song

Redcentric (RCN LN) Core holding which will keep on delivering | UBM (UBM LN) PRN disposal closed!

LIBERUM: Plus500: Strategic progress pays dividends

Tatton Asset Management (TAM LN) - Record net inflows

Tatton, the leading on-platform discretionary fund manager (DFM) and IFA support services Group has released a trading update ahead of its results to 31 March 2024, due on 18 June 2024.

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

Ondo InsurTech FY24 Trading Update

Ondo InsurTech has released a brief post-YE update revealing its good progress continued through 2H24 and consequently FY24 will be in line with market expectations.

Foxtons Group (FOXT LN) - 1Q24 IMS shows real momentum

Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.

BlackRock World Mining

BRWM’s managers: we see all the classic signs of high commodity prices...

Morning Note – 18 April 2024

NextEnergy Solar Fund - Attractive Refinancing

The refinancing of a £135m revolving credit facility and the extension of a similar £70m facility gives NESF firepower as development opportunities for new solar are especially attractive thanks to lower module prices in Europe. They give the fund key financial flexibility at a critical time as it pursues its capital recycling programme.

Foxtons Group - FY24 underpinned by market share gains

Foxtons Group’s Q1 revenue grew by 9%, supported by growth in all three divisions as the strategic initiatives continue to gain significant momentum, driven by investment in staff, best-in-class bespoke IT and data platforms. This implies that Foxtons’ medium-term targets are now coming into focus. Market share is being gained in all divisions, which puts Foxtons in a good position as the sales market stabilises. We maintain our valuation of 132p/share and believe that if interest rates stabilis

The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

M Winkworth+ (WINK, House Stock at 163p) - Solid FY23A results, well placed to grow

Hybridan Research: Sector Review: Artificial intelligence in UK cybersecurity: the human uplift 17/04/2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti

Resilient FY24, confident long-term outlook

Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long

AUM up 30% in FY24, record flows, forecasts raised

AUM jumped £3.8bn or +30% in FY24, reaching £16.6bn on 31 Mar 24, 12% above our previous forecast of £14.7bn. Including 50%-owned 8AM Global, Assets Under Influence hit £17.6bn. Investment performance provided a tailwind, adding £1.5bn to AUM. But our key takeaway from Tatton’s hugely impressive last few years, is that it has designed and implemented a superior offering in platform-MPS with net flows consistently far higher than peers. That leadership looks even more pronounced in H2-24 with net