We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.
Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE JET2 DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL INCE GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR APP PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Key Points. Mucklow’s interims show a steady performance with rental income up 4.2% driven by lease renewals, rent reviews, and a noteworthy fall in the vacancy rate to another record low of 2.4% (Jun 18: 2.8%). As a result, underlying PBT increased 6.3% YoY with growth of c.5% at the EPS level. Of significance, EPRA NAV grew by 2.3% (ahead of our expectations) to 572p (Jun 18: 559p) driven by a £8.7m revaluation gain (H1 18: £14.1m) demonstrating ongoing demand for industrial property in the Midlands. We increase our FY19E and FY20E NAV forecasts by c.1% on the back of this, but leave our earnings estimates unchanged. With balance sheet strength (LTV of 16%), an experienced management team and a progressive dividend policy (interim dividend up 3%, yield 4.6%) to support these fundamentals, we see upside at current levels (c.12% NAV discount in the context of a c.9% 10-yr average premium). Buy, PT 600p.
Companies: A&J Mucklow Group
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Companies: MODWJAARSATYMALHVSAVONCSRTCGSTIDEELMFPOHEADHILSHTGAMSMACFMKLWOXIGAPPSCPARSWRNOSUSKCTTRIVTCIQEZTFDEMGEMRBLVNGRIRMMHDYSHGRKHJHDTRAKSOLGVNETJET2LAMZOOPMOCALLHURCAMLANXIOGPCARBGPKGHTWDPIERHAYDREDDFLO7DIGSPERORGTLYW7LJOGPRSMKEYSINDIIBPORBWABBYGENLFSTGEEC
The market has not faced quite so many conflicting challenges for a number of years, whether related to global geopolitics, trade wars, ongoing Eurozone issues or the “will they, won’t they” saga of Brexit. In our Best Ideas, we sought to highlight stocks that present investors with interesting opportunities following recent market moves. Those stocks, we believe, warrant investor attention, in many cases for uncorrelated or stockspecific reasons, regardless of the near-to-medium term market direction. These stocks, in general, represent attractive and well-managed businesses or assets, with share price catalysts and where valuations or recent stock performance provide investors with a good entry point.
Companies: 7DIG ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE JET2 DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM MACF MOD MKLW OXIG PCA APP PMO RBW RMM RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZTF
Mucklow has released its AGM trading statement for the period from 1 July 2018 to 12 November 2018. Of note, the group has been able to maintain its record low vacancy rate of 2.8% that was reported at the finals in September, reflecting the continuing strong demand for regional industrial property, and the company’s active approach towards managing its portfolio.
Mucklow has announced that Justin Parker, Managing Director will be stepping down from the Board, and will leave the company on 31st December 2018 “to pursue new challenges in the property industry.”
Companies: HMIARSATYMAVONCSRTCGSTIDEELMFPOHEADHILSHTGAMSMACFMKLWOXIGAPPSCPARSWRNOSUSTRIVTCZTFDISWMHAMERFPMDEMGEMRBLVNGRIRMMHDYCKTSHGSXXRKHJHDTRAKSOLGPHDVNETJET2LAMPDGCALLHURCAMLAREANXIOGPCARBGPKGHTWDPIERHAYDREDDCAKENAH7DIGRORGTLYW7LJOGMNOKEYSGYGINDIIBPORBWABBYFLTRENTGENLSFEFSTGEEC
The June IPO of Knights Group Holdings, a Top-100 regional law firm, marked the fifth entrant to the burgeoning UK-listed legal sector. Following recent expansion of our coverage across all five listed legal firms, complemented by coverage of three broader support services peers with exposure to the sector, we revisit and build upon our views on this rapidly evolving sector.
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Finals showed a solid performance from Mucklow with EPRA NAV ahead of expectations, up 18.7% to 559p (Arden: 510p) driven by a revaluation gain of £49.7m (FY17: £13.0m) reflecting the continued investor appetite towards industrial property in the Midlands. Adjusted PBT (excluding these gains, and other exceptionals) decreased slightly to £15.7m (FY17 & Arden: £15.9m) driven by a one-off increase in property costs owing to the refurbishment of vacant properties.
Companies: HMIAPCAVONCSRTCGSTIDEELMFPOHEADHILSHTGAMSMACFMPACMKLWOXIGAPPSNXSCPARSWRNOSUSKCTTRIVTCZTFFPMDEMGAMOEMRBLVNHDYBGOSHGRKHJHDTRAKJET2LAMPDGCALLHURIOGPCAEUSPCDMGETBPIERLSAIHAYDFDMREDDCAKENAHSPERORGTLYECSCFUTRINCEINDIIBPORBWABBYKETLJELGENLAXUGEEC
In Q2, UK equities regained some of their poise after the draw down in Q1, although uncertainty around Brexit continued to grab the headlines. On the back of this, investor concern about the UK economy has been understandable in recent months given a number of negative data points. However, we see reasons for optimism for UK Plc with wage growth supporting an improving outlook for the consumer and business investment holding up. That said, continuing UK political disruption clearly remains a risk going forward.
Companies: AMER EMR HMI JOG PDG ABBY AMS AVON BLVN PIER CGS CALL CSRT TIDE JET2 DEMG ELM FPM FPO GTLY GENL INCE GEEC HDY HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD LAM MACF MKLW NAH OXIG PCA APP CAKE RBW RSW RNO RKH ROR SUS SCPA SHG KCT TRAK TRI VTC ZTF
Mucklow’s interim results reflect a stable performance with adjusted PBT increasing 1.3% YoY to £8.0m driven by gross rental income growth of 1.7% (to £12.0m), in line with our expectations, and EPRA EPS increasing by 2.7% to 12.88p. The company highlights consistent strong investor demand for industrial property in the Midlands as a key driver and, regarding the outlook, the company believes that market conditions will continue to be favourable for the rest of the year. As such we make no change to our P&L forecasts for the FY.
Mucklow’s AGM update reports that the portfolio has continued to benefit from steady occupier demand enabling the company to maintain the solid financial performance seen last year.
Mucklow has been one of the best performing UK REITs over the last 10 years, driven by the conservative long-term strategy and the astute reading of the property cycle. Looking forward we believe that the company’s Midlands industrial focus leaves it well-placed to benefit from structural and cyclical trends that should drive good growth in rents, dividends and capital values.
Gervais discusses 2 stocks he's excited about plus the impact of receding Globalisation
Companies: A&J Mucklow GroupStobart Group Limited
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on A&J Mucklow Group. We currently have 17 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
What’s new: Ahead of the publication of the Group’s interims results for the six months to 31 December 2020, CLIG has released a detailed trading update which reveals: Group consolidated FuM of US$11.0 billion (£8.0 billion), which is twice the FuM of US$5.5 billion (£4.4 billion) at the Group’s year end on 30 June 2020; The merger with Karpus Management Inc ("KMI") added c US$3.6 billion from 1 October 2020; Investment performance across CLIG’s investment strategies was “strong”, following “significant discount narrowing” and “good NAV performance”; Rebalancing of client portfolios resulted in US$ 290 million of net outflows.
Companies: City of London Investment Group PLC
Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are considerable concerns about the emergence of a mutant version of the virus and the second wave that we are now facing.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
Finals (9mths to Sep-20) are in line with expectations. Recurring fee income from 3rd party AuM (incl. PRSR) ensured solid profitability. The balance sheet is well resourced with £26m to develop seed assets. With a positive outlook following the launch of the £1bn JV with EQT, we see accelerating returns over the medium term. PRSR is also on track to materially complete the initial 5,200 portfolio this year. Sigma trades below our 200p+/share intrinsic valuation – which attributes no value to AuM growth, which is a strategic priority.
Companies: Sigma Capital Group plc
Secure Trust Bank’s (STB) pre-close update confirms the upbeat trends evident in its Q3 update in November. The strong lending rebound continued into Q4, loan repayment holidays are at low levels, and the balance sheet has remained robust and liquid. STB reiterated that its FY20 PBT would be well ahead of £9.7m (we forecast £13.0m). However, the new COVID-19 restrictions introduced in December 2020 have affected consumer loan demand into 2021, as well as the Motor Finance business. Management expects to be better placed to disclose its outlook for FY21 when STB’s FY20 results are released on 25 March. Our forecasts (FY21 PBT £31.6m, ROE 9.1%) and fair value (1,756p per share) remain unchanged.
Companies: Secure Trust Bank Plc
Allied Minds has announced that Joe Pignato has decided to step down as CEO and from the board with immediate effect. However, he will continue to support the company as CFO for an interim period as the board continues its search for a permanent CFO. As part of a streamlining process, Allied Minds will now become a board-led company with no immediate intention to appoint a new CEO. The chairman and NEDs (experienced VCs and private company investors) will represent Allied Minds on portfolio company boards (including Federated Wireless, BridgeComm and Spin Memory) with an intention to accelerate realisations where possible.
Companies: Allied Minds PLC
Sirius Real Estate has been a stand-out performer within the UK listed commercial real estate sector over the last three years, delivering a total shareholder return of 107%. The shares also offer a valuable portfolio diversifier for investors, with a geographic focus on Germany, and a focus on pro
Companies: Sirius Real Estate Limited
Redde Northgate has come through the COVID crisis in very good shape so far. We expect minimal impact on the former Northgate business from “lockdown 2.0”, a strong recovery in profits and a re-rating as normality returns and Redde reverts to mean. We could see further useful earnings upside from acquisitions such as Nationwide and revenue synergies not yet included. The Group is transforming itself into a mobility business which is higher returning, more diversified and has sustainable compounding growth prospects.
Companies: Redde Northgate PLC
Urban Logistics REIT (“REIT”) has acquired another high quality “last mile” asset in the Wirral for £16.3m (5.0% NIY). The 169k sqft site is let to a subsidiary of Culina. It is leased through to 2032 and has clear rental progression, with an uplift on commencement of a reversionary lease in 2022 and a rent review in 2027. 99% rents for the Jan-Mar quarter have already been collected – highlighting the resilience in the tenant base/income. We do not change forecasts, already assuming full deployment by year end. We estimate that c.£75m capital capacity remains. We note a 6%+ dividend yield in FY22e – a 12m period of full capital deployment – and note that the discount ignores embedded NAV growth potential.
Companies: Urban Logistics REIT plc
Pacific Horizon (PHI) generated a very impressive uplift in its NAV over the course of 2020. This reflects its focus on growth, and technology and biotech stocks in particular. These performed well as we attempted to adjust to life under the pandemic, thereby accelerating a number of structural trends. PHI provided an NAV total return of 86.1%, which eclipsed the return on the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan of 21.2%, the broader MSCI AC World of 12.7% and the average of its Asia Pacific sector peer group of 25.3%. PHI is the top-performing trust in this sector by a significant margin. Despite this stellar growth, PHI’s manager is not resting on his laurels. Emerging Asia still remains a high-growth and underresearched region, and he continues to focus on those themes he expects to do well over the next five years. For example, EV continues to be a significant theme and the manager has been increasing exposure to the commodities needed to deliver a greener future, but which the world is structurally short of, following long-term underinvestment.
Companies: Pacific Horizon Investment Trust
Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC Due mid Jan. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. Due 14 Jan. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: IUG CBP KAT APP RST DIS NICL BOKU CNIC HE1
AuM grew by +43% (+16% organic) to £29.4bn in Q3. Investment performance was strong (+£2.5bn) as COVID vaccine news propelled markets. Net inflows were maintained qoq (£792m). Sustainable was the stand out performer (+24%). AuM has broken through £30bn post-period end. Better than expected AuM drives +3% FY21e EPS and +5% in outer years. Continued distribution efforts in Sustainable, Global Equity and Multi-Asset funds stands to catalyse earnings. Alongside flow momentum, 12x FY22e PER is not reflecting this upside.
Companies: Liontrust Asset Management PLC
Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust’s (MNP’s) manager Zehrid Osmani reports that his ongoing focus on long-term structural, sustainable business models was beneficial for the fund’s performance during the coronavirus-led market sell-off in Q120, with portfolio companies undertaking measures to protect their brand equity. He is encouraged by a general increase in investor awareness of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, an area of research that Martin Currie has focused on for several years, as he believes that ESG improvements can lead to higher total returns for shareholders. MNP’s performance has improved since the appointment of Osmani in October 2018, and its NAV is now ahead of its benchmark over the last one, three, five and 10 years.
Companies: Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust
Manolete has announced a good set of interim results with strong growth across the board and good operational momentum in case investments and completed cases. The shares have been on a wild ride through 2020 and look genuinely inexpensive on an earnings basis, accepting that cash will continue to be invested in new cases, we see good value here. Buy
Companies: Manolete Partners Plc
Pacific Horizon (PHI) generated a very impressive uplift in its NAV over the course of 2020. This reflects its focus on growth, and technology and biotechnology stocks in particular. These performed well as we attempted to adjust to life under the pandemic, thereby accelerating a number of structural trends. PHI provided an NAV total return of 86.1%, which eclipsed the return on the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan index of 21.2%, the broader MSCI AC World of 12.7% and the average of its Asia Pacific sector peer group (see page 23) of 25.3%. PHI is the topperforming trust in this sector by a significant margin. Despite this stellar growth, PHI’s manager is not resting on his laurels. Emerging Asia still remains a high-growth and underresearched region, and he continues to focus on those themes he expects to do well over the next five years. For example, companies exposed to the growth in electric vehicles (EV) continue to be a significant theme. The manager has been increasing exposure to the commodities needed to deliver a greener future, but which the world is structurally short of, following long-term underinvestment.
Vietnam Enterprise Investments (VEIL) is the largest and longest-established Vietnamese equities closed-end fund. The last quarter of 2019 and most of 2020 marked a period of portfolio repositioning for the fund. The team sold 14 holdings, and bought two, making the portfolio more focused (28 stocks at end 2020 versus 41 at end Q319) but better balanced by market cap as well as domestic and international business exposure. Over H220 the performance has picked up, with NAV total return of 28% versus 24% for the VN Index, after marginally lagging the benchmark over the past three years. The trust is well positioned for longer-term investors looking for an exposure to the fast-growing Vietnamese economy via a relatively large and liquid listed equities vehicle.
Companies: Vietnam Enterprise Investments
