CMD - Broadening & deepening client relationships

A dose of morosity

No change in the narrative. Aviva’s ship sails on as usual. The PRT business is still going well, inflation remains an impediment to a strong P&C improvement, retail customers seem more interested in the rising cost of living than savings’ products and Aviva investors see no real signs of an improvement. This is the same story as in recent quarters and, in that context, our thesis remains the same.

Rising signals

'Airlines will be shocked when Covid leases run out and rates go up’

Morning Note – 24 May 2023

The Opportunity in Short-Termism

Fears vs Fundamentals (again) For 2 years, European banks have enjoyed potent earnings upgrades. For 2 years, valuations have been trapped between ''unease'' and ''outright panic'' multiples. This note looks at the latest fears and fundamentals behind this ongoing struggle. We extract lasting lessons from Q1, a record profit quarter, and extend our work on the fears of the moment: ''peak NIM'', CRE and credit contraction. Peak NIM - no, not yet We refresh our top-down margin work for the late

NAHL Group plc: AGM update: Continued progress in scaling the business for future growth

NAHL’s AGM statement released today, is encouraging as management continues to scale the businesses for further growth. As a result, the Board’s expectations for the full year remain unchanged and we make no alterations to our forecasts. As a reminder, these still call for a c.13% increase in adjusted PBT in 2023, c.170% in FY24 and a further c.70% in FY25. Our current fair value remains at 65p but this is likely to rise as the Group delivers on its significant potential.

WH Ireland: Avation - Market tailwinds highlighted in Bloomberg Intelligence event

Avation is a lessor of 35 commercial aircraft to a diversified client base of 17 airlines. Yesterday's Bloomberg Intelligence webinar event entitled ‘Aircraft Lessor Recovery and Innovation' reaffirmed a number of positive market trends for aircraft lessors at the present time. Key points included: i) structural deficits in the supply of turboprop aircraft in the coming years, with aircraft retirements expected to outpace limited production of new aircraft; ii) the strong recovery in air travel

This Week's AIM Highlights 19th May

Early Mover in UK Lab-grown Meat

BSF Enterprise Plc (BSF) is a biotechnology company focused on acquiring, combining, and building businesses in the lab-grown tissue space. It aims to achieve this through an acquisition-led growth strategy and has already acquired the tissue engineering and cellular agriculture company, 3D Bio Tissues.

An Asian exploration

We spent last week with HSBC and STAN in Hong Kong and Singapore, delving into the detail of structural drivers for Asia. Both banks have a good story to tell, with business models that are well positioned and being enhanced further. In isolation we did not learn enough to warrant a change in recommendation but tailwinds from the region are not to be overlooked. A deep dive into a core part of the investment case Asia sits at the core of the investment case for both HSBC and STAN given its share

c.60% discount to NAV... Can deep value prevail?

Petershill (PHP) reported a Q1-23 double digit % headline miss on FRE/DE mostly driven by cyclical factors. However, fundraising was resilient including more closings after quarter end and PHP reiterated FY2023 guidance ($220-250m FRE). We remain outperform, 250p target price. Weakness on headline earnings amid a muted industry backdrop Private markets are being tested in 2023 with private equity deal activity down c.50-80% y/y. In this context, the headline Q1 miss was mostly driven by cyclica

Trading update indicates strong FY23 performance

Software and Services Sector Quarterly review - May 2023

Deep Dive - Market reactions to SaaS transitions Our Deep Dive analysis indicates that the UK market is cautious on companies transitioning to SaaS business models. Investors have punished share prices of companies reporting declines in revenue growth and margins even though the declines are temporary and explained by the transition to SaaS. However, after the completion of SaaS transitions, companies are typically rewarded with high multiples for high recurring revenues and margins.

Very strong CY22 - CY23 upgraded 10%