Panmure Morning Note 12-01-16
12 Jan 16
Lettings in 3Q16 have been struck at 17.1% above the March 2015 values and, if the larger deals are excluded the broader investment lets were 27.1% above. This underlines the extraordinary strength of the London commercial property rental market. Markets are very nervous currently and the property sector is likely to be nervous about the impact of geopolitical risks and a potential Brexit on central London occupancy. However, the economy remains very buoyant with Great Portland commenting that no tenants have raised concerns about these issues to date. We believe that the London stocks remain defensive and sheltered from the oil, commodity and currency risks. We retain our BUY recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 11-11-15
11 Nov 15
The Facebook let at Rathbone Place by Tottenham Court Road Crossrail station has resulted in the recognition of a large tranche of development profit raising the NAV/s strongly, +14% this half year. The results focus on the valuation growth at this stage in the cycle. The group looks to the property cycle to create returns for shareholders and is now well entrenched in the execution phase of its program. The income growth during this phase is more modest as the group has been developing and refurbishing assets. The letting process is now gaining momentum into a strong London office rental market. We raise our target price to 1010p (from 944p) and retain our Buy recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 14-09-15
14 Sep 15
Great Portland Estates has let office space amounting to 227,324 sqft of its Rathbone Place development to Facebook. The deal provides for additional lets to the group which could increase Facebook's presence in this location, close to the Tottenham Court road Crossrail station to c 350,000 sqft. The deal, at rents overall above ERV, should enable the recognition of some of the development profit in upcoming valuations. After deducting the provision for overage to Royal Mail group, this could still amount to an extra 10p on the valuation. We retain our Buy recommendation and 944p target price.
Panmure Morning Note 08-07-15
08 Jul 15
The management point to a better year than FY15E for rental growth when +10.3% was achieved. The London office market is very strong at present and Great Portland Estates is now monetising the benefits of the development pipeline and asset management program it has been working on. The lettings are delivering over 45% reversions on previous passing levels and recent lets were 13% ahead of June 2014 ERVs. We retain our Buy and 944p target price.