Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – $165k coupon collected NRR convertible | Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – Production at 69koz GEO and cash balance climbing to ~$40m in FY20 | Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Record copper production at Proyecto Riotinto in 2020 | Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – Directors exercise options | IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – 12,500m drill programme commenced at Ghana Lithium Project | Ormonde Mining* (ORM LN) – Ormonde announce deal for new high-grade copper, silver and zinc projects | Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – FY Q2 2021 Results | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Cobre Q4 magnetite sales | URU Metals* (URU LN) – Possible disposal of Zebediela project
Companies: AMC AAZ ATYM CNR IRR ORM OMI SML URU
Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – $165k coupon collected NRR convertible
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – Production at 69koz GEO and cash balance climbing to ~$40m in FY20
Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Record copper production at Proyecto Riotinto in 2020
Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – Directors exercise options
IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – 12,500m drill programme commenced at Ghana Lithium Project
Ormonde Mining* (ORM LN) – Ormonde announce deal for new high-grade copper, silver and zinc projects
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – FY Q2 2021 Results
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Cobre Q4 magnetite sales
URU Metals* (URU LN) – Possible disposal of Zebediela project
Companies: OMI ORM AMC AAZ CNR SML URU ATYM IRR
Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Change of CFO
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Beowulf to raise £7.4m to continue work on Kallak in Sweden and copper, gold and zinc properties in Kosovo
BlueRock Diamonds (BRD LN) – BlueRock recovers two more larger diamonds from its Kareevlei Diamond mine
Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Progress on drilling at the Clogau mine
Shanta Gold (SHG LN) – Hedge book closed regaining full exposure to strong gold prices
Companies: ALBA AMC BEM BRD SHG
Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Kun Manie TEO progress report | Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – In-depth geophysical survey at Viti identifies drill targets | Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) – Third bidder enters the fray for Namdini | Panthera Resources (PAT LN) – Resumption of exploration at Kalaka | Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Permitting update on Mina do Barroso | Vast Resources* (VAST LN) – First Baita Plai concentrate shipment | Zamare Minerals* (Private) - Zamare Assays 15.8% Copper Mineralisation on its Dongwe licence in Zambia
Companies: AMC BEM CDV PAT SAVE VAST
AEX Gold Inc (AEXG LN) – Development progress | Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Loading of first iron ore for shipment at the Roper Bar Project | Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ LN) - BUY, 200p – Updated resources and reserves extend life of mine at Gedabek | Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – Identification of additional gold targets in Donegal | Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Drone survey completed at Mitrovica | Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) – Copper soil anomalies extended at Mkushi | KEFI Gold and Copper (KEFI LN) – Q4 drilling launched at Hawiah with first hole extending Camp Lode mineralisation from 300m to 440m down dip | Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Completion of Oman divestment | Yamana Gold (AUY LN) – C$152m acquisition of Wasamac project in Quebec
Companies: AEX AMC AAZ ARK BEM CCZ KEFI SAVE YRI
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) - BUY – 200p – Vejnaly Contract Area under control of Azerbaijan | Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – NRR shareholders invest $10m in equity | Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – Extension to offtake negotiations for Dundas titanium mineral sands | Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – Detailed geotechnical investigations underway at La India | Directa Plus (DCTA LN) – Directa Plus agrees to supply graphene nanoplatelets to NexTech | Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Deal offers stake in new Mexican gold mine and cash flow while retaining interest in Georgian assets | IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Final Phase-two drilling results at Zaranou Gold Project | Adriatic Metals* (ADT1) – $28m financing to progress Vareš Silver Project | Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Drawdown of financing | Pure Gold Mining (PUR LN) – Drilling results from Red Lake | Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Progress reports on Nevada projects | Vast Resources* (VAST LN) – Mining license extended at Manaila and Carlibaba
Companies: AAZ AMC JAY CNR DCTA EEE IRR ADT KOD PGM SRES VAST
Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Director Change | Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) - BUY – TP under review – Q3 delivers 18.2koz GEO with FY20 guidance under review | Anglo American (AAL LN) – De Beers reports continuing signs of recovering diamond sales demand | Resolute Mining (RSG LN) – Underground resource update at Tabakoroni | Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – Appointment of advisor for Mutamba development | SolGold* (SOLG LN) – First hole completed at Porvenir as exploration effort accelerates with additional rigs | Talga Resources (TLG LN) – Silicone Anode interest drives 10 times increase in commercial production capacity
Companies: AMC AAZ AAL SAV SOLG
Adriatic Metals* (ADT1 LN) – Acquisition of Tethyan Resources | Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – First quarterly coupon received from Nathan River Resources | Caledonia Mining* (CMCL LN) – Appointment of contractor for solar power plant | Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) – $20.5m refinancing agreed | Edenville Energy* (EDL LN) – Corporate update | Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Raising funds for drilling in Cameroon | Rainbow Rare Earths* (RBW LN) – Update on trial mining at Gakara in Burundi | Shanta Gold (SHG LN) – Singida project update | Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Completion of drilling at Kaaresselkä in Finland | Vast Resources* (VAST LN) – Baita Plai mining operations restart
Companies: ADT AMC CGH EDL ORR RBW SHG TYM VAST
Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) – BUY – 115p – Tabakorole resource climbs 54% with a 20% increase in grades | Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Interims Ariana Resources* (AAU LN) – Interim results and 2020 guidance | Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – Interims highlight ilmenite offtake agreements, licensing progress and low operating costs | BlueRock Diamonds (BRD LN) – Pit expansion combined with new capacity and recovery of larger stones to lead significant increase in diamond production | Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – BUY – 45.7p – Production sharing agreement with Orion financing Phase III expansion at Vametco with notes to refurbish Vanchem | Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) – BUY – 57p – Kapan operations update | Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Agnico Eagle joins Newmont at Anza | SolGold* (SOLG LN) – Delivery of Alpala PFS delayed by Covid19 restrictions | Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Progress report on Nevada exploration and MB Fluorspar project | Tri-Star Resources* (TSTR LN) – To be suspended pending publication of annual results
Companies: ALS AMC AAU JAY BRD BMN CGH SOLG TYM
Adriatic Metals* (ADT1) – Government approval granted for land extension at Vares Silver project | Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Board appointment | Ariana Resources* (AAU LN) – Underground mining options considered and new vein discovered at Kiziltepe | BlueRock Diamonds* (BRD LN) –Diamond sales from Kareevlei average US$330/carat | Bushveld Minerals (BMN LN) BUY - Valuation 46.5p – Vanadium sales rise in first half despite Lockdown | Ferro-Alloy Resources (FAR LN) – Development of electrolyte for VFBs | Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – BUY – Sinohydro MoU offers potential to realise significant value | Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – CS Project appeals window closes without any objections
Companies: ADT AMC AAU BRD BMN FAR KOD SRES
Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) - £6.1m equity raise and Australian iron ore project investment | Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – Director adds to his shareholding | Eurasia Mining *(EUA LN) – Approval for licenses for Monchetundra Flanks | Petropavlovsk (POG LN) – Resignation of Auditor | Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – First results from 2020 drilling programme at Red Star | Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) – Expansion of the Sao Chico exploration licence
Companies: AMC CNR EUA POG PXC SRB
Companies: AMC AAZ BEM BZT KOD POG PREM ATYM CDV
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Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has reported Q4 2020 production with 3,365t of copper taking full year output to 13,855 in line with our forecast of 13.9kt and at the top end of guidance. Q4 lead output was 7,442t meaning 29,741t over the full year, up 2% YoY and in line with our forecast of 30kt while zinc output of 5,848t took full year output to 23,815t again in line with our forecast of 24kt and up 2% YoY despite the disruption at Sasa which CAML has overcome rapidly as we expected.
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
Jubilee put out an intraday press release yesterday updating on the performance in the first half (ending Dec 2020) of the FY 2021. Once again Jubilee delivers; significantly increased revenues and profits from its chrome and PGM division in South Africa and a small, but important, contribution from Zambia. Notably this improvement isn't just from commodity price performance; rather increased production, productivity, throughput, renegotiated contracts and all set alongside the strong performance of commodity prices –rhodium, palladium and platinum. We see this as still only the start for Jubilee as we look forward to the first copper oxide concentrates from the Roan project in Zambia to the Sable Refinery – where the Roan plant is currently under construction. Once again we are struck by the speed at which Jubilee moves to advance its projects and, with its South African cash engine showing no signs of slowing down. Jubilee can choose to move its wider ambitions in Zambia forward from internally generated cash flow. On the back of the strong performance we put our forecasts under review.
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – BUY, Valuation 29.4p – Bluejay agrees jv with Rio Tinto over the Enonkoski Project in Finland
Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – BUY - Valuation 37.7p – Ferro-Vanadium prices jump 11.6% in the US
Edenville Energy* (EDL LN) – Funding agreement refinanced and £900k raised
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Further progress at West African gold assets
Lucara Diamonds (LUC CN) – Karowe mine yields 341 carat diamond
Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) –Q4 production results continue modest recovery of Q3
Companies: LUC JAY BMN EDL KOD SRB
Companies: Hurricane Energy Plc
Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN)C; Target Price: 6.70p: Funding update – BPC has exercised a put option to raise £3.75 mm priced at 2p per share.
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C: Target Price increased from £0.45 to £0.50: US$100 mm bond to accelerate activities and grow production - PetroTal is launching a bond issue to raise US$100 mm. This would allow the firm to accelerate drilling and development activities at Bretana (~US$40 mm), clean up its balance sheet, put in place a hedging programme and allow the firm to consider regional acquisitions. Assuming the extra funding is put in place, we are increasing our capex programme for 2021 from US$40 mm to US$90 mm. We are also increasing our production forecast for 2021 from ~11 mbbl/d to ~15 mbbl/d that we maintain broadly flat in 2023 as we assume PetroTal will drill additional wells before production starts to decline from 2024. We note that the 3P case only assumes five additional wells (~US$70 mm) compared to the 2P case. With more production, we are now forecasting operating cashflow of ~US$170 mm in 2022 and ~US$155 mm in 2023. We are also increasing our Core NAV from £0.43 per share to £0.52 per share. The additional funding would also allow the company to drill exploration wells such as the 70 mmbbl Constitucion prospect (£0.40 per share Unrisked).
Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Increasing our target price from £0.35 to £0.40 per share on reserves uplift – The highlight of Pharos’ operational update is the ~40% increase in 2P reserves in Egypt expected as at YE20 (YE19 28.5 mmbbl). This reflects improved waterflood performance based on recent field data, and a new drilling and workover plan for 2021 onwards. Drilling is expected to recommence in Vietnam in 3Q21, a quarter earlier than previously announced. We have increased our target price from £0.35 per share to £0.40 per share to factor in the expected increase in reserves in Egypt. We estimate the value of Pharos based on Vietnam only at £0.23-0.27 per share. This is 15-35% above the current share price. Securing a partner to fund a development programme with four rigs in Egypt would increase the value of the ~ 40 mmbbl 2P reserves in Eqypt and unlock the contingent and 108 mmbbl prospective resources. Our incremental unrisked value for the four rig programme is £0.17-0.19 per share (~85% upside to the current share price). Successfully negotiating new terms with EGPC could lead to an improvement of up to US$6/bbl in the breakeven price. We have previously estimated that securing similar terms to TransGlobe would boost our Core NAV by £0.10-0.12 per share and ReNAV by £0.13-0.15 per share. TransGlobe Energy’s share price has tripled since the new terms on its licences were announced.
Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; Target Price: SEK75.00: Production update in Oman – Production at Block 3&4 in December was 11,481 bbl/d.
Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US)C; Target Price: £4.00: Initiating Coverage - VAALCO is a US and UK listed ~£75 mm market cap, ~10 mbbl/d oil producer (pro-forma) with West African assets. VAALCO has an excellent track record as an operator having grown a 30 mmbbl discovery in Gabon to a field that has produced >118 mmbbl so far with an additional 37 mmbbl remaining 2P reserves plus ~80 mmbbl upside at YE19. The shares have suffered in the past from (1) a lack of materiality as VAALCO held only ~31% of its main asset, with G&A viewed as representing a disproportionate amount of cash flow and (2) lack of visibility on how the significant amount of cash on the balance sheet would be deployed. The US$44 mm acquisition of an additional ~28% WI in Etame announced in November, thereby almost doubling production, reserves and resources overnight, has addressed these issues. The story is now about continuing to grow reserves at the producing Gabonese field and to replicate this success elsewhere. With estimated net cash of >US$25 mm at the end of 1Q21, VAALCO’ s shares trade at less than half our 2P NAV of ~£2.70 per share. The current share price discounts an EV/DACF multiple of 1.2x in 2021. Low risk infill drilling of contingent resources could add ~£0.45 per share (30% of share price) with an overall unrisked value for the upside at the producing asset of £4.80 per share (~4x the current share price). Finalizing the farm out of its asset in Equatorial Guinea could start unlocking a further £4.20 of unrisked value. Our target price of £4.00 per share (~ our ReNAV) represents ~230% upside.
Wentworth Resources (WEN LN)C; Target Price: £0.40: >100 mmcf/d reached in December - FY20 gross production was 65.36 mmcf/d (in the middle of the 60-70 mmcf/d guidance) with ~83 mmcf/d on average during the month of December. Repairs to the MB-2 flowline were completed on 9 December, increasing the capacity of the field to over 100 mmcf/d. Production reached 103 mmcf/d for five days during that month. Gross production guidance for FY21 is 65-75 mmcf/d, below the 80 mmcf/d we were carrying as production growth is pushed back by a year. Cash on hand of ~US$18 mm is in line with our expectations. With 70 mmcf/d gross production in 2021 and almost no capex, we forecast FY21 Free Cash Flow of ~US$10 mm. With FY20 dividends of only US$3.2 mm and ~US$18 mm in cash, we believe there is scope to increase the dividend. At the current share price, the FY20 dividend represents a yield of ~6%. Even after the recent share price appreciation, the shares continue to trade at EV/DACF multiples of 2.9x in 2021 and 2.2x in 2022. This compares with 3.8x for 2020, suggesting there is room for multiple expansion given the stable nature of the business.
IN OTHER NEWS
88 Energy (88E LN/AU): Acquisition in Alaska – 88 Energy is acquiring the Umiat Oil Field, located on the North Slope of Alaska. The proceeds consist of a 4% overriding royalty interest and the assumption of the abandonment liability of two historic wells (at an estimated cost of ~US$1 mm). Umiat is an historic oil discovery, made in 1945 in shallow Brookian (Nanushuk) sandstones, located immediately adjacent to southern boundary of Project Peregrine. The Umiat-23H well was flow tested at a sustained rate of 200 bbl/d with no water in 2014. Gross 2P reserves were estimated at 123.7 mmbbl on 1 December 2015.
Equinor (EQNR NO): Farming down Argentinian offshore exploration to Shell - Equinor and YPF farm-down 30% interests in the CAN 100 block, located in the North Argentinian Basin to Shell.
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Dispute in East Texas and acquisition of new acreage - Kinder Morgan has filed a petition against Pantheon, seeking payment of ~US$3.35mm with respect to the early termination of a Gas Treating Agreement between Kinder Morgan and Vision Operating Company. In a separate statement, the company indicated it has acquired 100% interest in ~66,000 acres in the State of Alaska's North Slope Areawide Lease Sale. The new leases are positioned in two areas contiguous to the company’s current acreage.
Parex Resources (PXT CN): Operation update in Colombia – 4Q20 production was 46,550 boe/d compared to Parex’ guidance of 45,500-47,500 boe/d. 1Q21 production is expected to average 46,500-47,500 boe/d. The Brent/Vasconia differential is currently ~US$2/bbl. Parex estimates a cash position of US$325 mm at YE20.
Total (FP FP): Discovery in Suriname - The Keskesi East-1 well, in Block 58, encountered a total of 63 meters net pay of hydrocarbons, comprised of 58 meters net black oil, volatile oil, and gas pay in good quality Campano-Maastrichtian reservoirs, along with 5 meters of net volatile oil pay in Santonian reservoirs.
Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN): Operating update in the UK – Phase 1 remains on schedule for First Gas in 3Q21. Drilling is expected to start in early 2Q21.
Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Operating update in the UK North Sea - Production for the final four months of 2020 averaged 12,500 bbl/d. Current water cut is 25%. YE20 net free cash was US$106 mm, compared to US$87 mm at 30 November 2020.
Lundin Energy (LUNE SS): Resources increase in Norway – YE20 2P reserves are 670.9 mmboe (+ 39.3 mmboe versus YE19). The YE20 2C resources are 275.5 mmboe (+90.2 mmboe et YE19).
OMV (OMV AG): Trading update – 4Q20 production was 472 mboe/d including 290 mboe/d of natural gas.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Operating update in the Ukraine – 4Q20 production was 4,444 boe/d. At YE20, the company held US$61 mm in cash.
Petroneft (PTR LN): Potential acquisition in Russia – Petroneft is looking to acquire an additional 40% interest in Licence 67 from Belgrave Naftogas for US$2.9 mm including US$1.2 mm in shares and the balance in cash.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): Operating update in Kurdistan – FY20 gross production at Shaikan was 36,625 bbl/d with current production of 44,000 bbl/d. As at 12 January 2021, the Company had a cash balance of US$147 mm. FY21 gross production guidance has been set at 40,000 to 44,000 bbl/d with US$15 to $20 mm net capex and US$2.5 to US$2.9/bbl opex.
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Terms update for bonds – ShaMaran is looking to use free cash in excess of US$15 mm to buy back its Bonds in the market to satisfy the cash sweep redemption requirements.
United Oil & Gas (UOG LN): Production update in Egypt – 2H20 WI production was 2,340 boe/d in line with guidance for the period of 2,300 boe/d.
BW Energy (NEW NO): Farm-in transaction in Namibia – BW Energy is acquiring 39% WI in the Kudu offshore licence from the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (NAMCOR). BW will pay US$4 mm in cash and carry NAMCOR’s share of development costs until first gas. NAMCOR will also have the opportunity to acquire an additional 5% working interest post first gas.
Orca Energy (ORC.A/B CN): Update in Tanzania – FY20 sales volumes were 57.7 mmcf/d. Cash and short-term investments totalled US$103.8 mm at YE20. As at YE20 there were no current receivables due from TANESCO. The TANESCO long-term trade receivable was US$27.6 mm.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
18/01/2021: Repsol (REP SM) – Trading update
19/01/2021: Genel Energy (GENL LN) – 4Q20 trading update
20/01/2021: Cairn Energy (CNE LN): Trading update
Companies: 88E BPC EQNR HUR LUNE PXT PHAR SNM TETY TETY FP EGY WEN
European Metals has recently enjoyed a long overdue share price re-rating. The shares have
increased ten-fold from Covid lows in April 2020 on the back of a marked improvement in
lithium sector sentiment. EMH’s market cap is now £127m. Covid has in many ways accelerated
the push towards EVs and the low carbon agenda. Europe is now the battleground for Electric
Vehicles (“EVs”) where material sources, security of supply and the entire value chain is coming
under ever increasing scrutiny. The DFS at EMH’s Cinovec project is due for completion by the
end of 2021.The time has come for EMH and over the next 12 months we should see with more clarity how
Cinovec fits into Europe’s growing EV and battery industry. We see no other project better
placed to dovetail into the European battery market and supply battery-grade lithium at scale.
Companies: European Metals Holdings Limited
Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) – Arc Minerals extends exclusivity agreement with Anglo for a further 180 days
Cornish Metals* (CUSN CN) – Intention to float on AIM market
Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Newcrest approves A4146m for preparatory mining work at Havieron
IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Drilling defines multiple targets at Ewoyaa Lithium Project
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – 2020 production and 2021 guidance
Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Progress report on projects
Zamare Minerals* (Private) - Zamare announce agreement with First Quantum Minerals over the Ntambu exploration license in Zambia
Companies: CUSN ARCM GGP KMR SRES IRR
Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC Due mid Jan. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. Due 14 Jan. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.
Companies: IUG CBP KAT APP RST DIS NICL BOKU CNIC HE1
Results from the 2020 soil-till sampling campaign have been reported today and are positive with widespread anomalous gold values, including the highest soil-till assay results to date, along strike to the east and west of BAM Gold for a total length of 8 kilometres. Numerous new drill targets have been identified which have the potential of being advanced into additional resources to continue the rapid growth of the BAM Gold Project. Drilling has commenced in the area to the west and has intersected similar geological lithology and mineralisation to BAM Gold.
The drilling programme for 2020-21 at the BAM Gold Deposit is progressing as planned with a total of 6,518 metres of HQ diamond core, comprising 30 drill holes, completed to date. All drill holes have successfully intersected prospective mineralised zones associated with the BAM Gold Deposit. The drill core has been logged, processed, and sent to ALS Minerals of Thunder Bay for analysis to date. Assay results are pending, with increased exploration activity in Canada, the labs are full, with assays now taking 7-8 weeks. The current funded drilling programme is expected to complete in April 2021.
Companies: Landore Resources Limited
• PetroTal is launching a bond issue to raise US$100 mm. This would allow the firm to accelerate drilling and development activities at Bretana (~US$40 mm), put in place a hedging programme and allow the firm to consider regional acquisitions.
• Some of the proceeds of the bond issue will be used to repay the US$16.6 mm derivative liabilities to Petroperu that was formalized in November. However, with the recent upwards shift of the forward curve, the potential derivative liabilities is now an asset and Petroperu is expected to owe PetroTal ~US$8 mm. Under the current forward curve, PetroTal should therefore now receive a total of ~US$25 mm (=US$16.6 mm + US$8 mm) from Petroperu from the settled oil profits during 1Q21.
• Assuming the extra funding is put in place, we are increasing our capex programme for 2021 from US$40 mm to US$90 mm. We are also increasing our production forecast for 2021 from ~11 mbbl/d to ~15 mbbl/d that we maintain broadly flat in 2023 as we assume PetroTal will drill additional wells before starting to decline from 2024. We note that the 3P case only assumes five additional wells (~US$70 mm) compared to the 2P case.
• Current production has now increased from 9.5 mbbl/d last week to 10 mbbl/d.
• PetroTal has now also signed an agreement for a second pilot shipment through Brazil in February 2021, of up to 220,000 barrels of oil.
Positive impact on cash flow and NAV
With more production, we are now forecasting operating cashflow of ~US$170 mm in 2022 and ~US$155 mm in 2023. We are also increasing our Core NAV from £0.43 per share to £0.52 per share. The additional funding would also allow the company to drill exploration wells such as the 70 mmbbl Constitucion prospect (£0.40 per share Unrisked).
We are increasing our target price from £0.45 per share to £0.50 per share in line with our new Core NAV. Our target price represents over 3x the current share price.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Today's news & views, plus announcements from RIO, TSCO, WIZZ, SVS, BBOX, EMAN, POLR, BRK, BOO, THG
Companies: Rio Tinto plc
Oil slid by the most in three weeks as a stronger dollar and weak US economic data stoked concerns over an economic rebound.
Futures in New York tumbled 2.3% on Friday after a rally in oil earlier in the week pushed the benchmark into overbought territory. The US dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. US consumer sentiment cooled more than forecast in January and other economic data such as sluggish retail sales and producer prices also portray the obstacles still facing the country as it emerges from the pandemic.
Meanwhile, President-elect Joe Biden said he will ask Congress for $1.9 trillion to fund immediate relief for the US economy that has been pummelled by the pandemic. But the large price tag and inclusion of initiatives opposed by many Republicans set up the aid package for a drawn out legislative battle.
Despite the pullback in oil futures, vaccine breakthroughs and Saudi Arabia's pledge earlier this month to deepen output cuts are expected to support prices. JPMorgan Chase & Co said a “nasty deficit” could emerge in the oil market later this year.
Meanwhile, technical indicators had been flashing warnings signs all week. The 14-day Relative Strength Index for both US and global benchmark crude futures traded above 70 this week in a sign they were overbought, though both slipped under that level Friday.
West Texas Intermediate for February delivery fell $1.21 to settle at $52.36 a barrel. Futures rose less than 1% this week.
Brent for March settlement lost $1.32 to end the session at $55.10 a barrel. The contract fell 1.6% during the week.
The market's structure has also softened. Brent's prompt timespread dipped back into contango on Friday, a bearish structure where nearby prices are cheaper than later-dated ones.
This week has seen the annual commodity index rebalancing take place -- a move that was expected to see as much as $9 billion flow into the oil market. Since it began last Friday, there has been a surge in so called trading-at-settlement volumes, an instrument often used by participants with index exposure. For Brent, average volumes over the last five days have reached a record.
Other oil-market news:
Companies: FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Salt Lake Potash Lake Way Project is nearing completion with the Process Plant and NPI well advanced. The overall project, including all on-lake infrastructure, was 81% complete on 31 December 2020.
The Project remains on track for first SOP production in March 2021 and first SOP sales in April, with the project capital budget unchanged at A$264m. Funds from the first US$105m tranche of the Project Development Facility have been received enabling repayment of the US$45m Bridge Facility and completion of project construction.
The Process Plant was 88% complete on 31 December 2020 (on an earned value basis). Approximately 27kt of potassium rich kainite and schoenite salts have been harvested for commissioning plant feed from the Train 1 cells. Harvesting activities will re-commence in March ahead of plant commissioning. Process Plant commissioning is expected to commence in February with introduction of first feed salts to the plant in March.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Limited
• The highlight of Pharos’ operational update is the ~40% increase in 2P reserves in Egypt expected as at YE20 (YE19: 28.5 mmbbl). This reflects improved waterflood performance based on recent field data, and a new drilling and workover plan for 2021 onwards.
• Drilling is expected to recommence in Vietnam in 3Q21, a quarter earlier than previously announced.
• Pharos reported FY20 production of 11,373 boe/d in line with our expectations and the company’s guidance. FY20 production includes 5,270 bbl/d for Egypt and the balance in Vietnam.
• FY20 revenue is also in line with our expectations and YE20 net debt was US$33 mm (including US$24 mm in cash).
• We have increased our target price from £0.35 per share to £0.40 per share to factor in the expected increase in reserves in Egypt. Our three and four rig cases previously included the contribution of some contingent resources. These two cases are now entirely supported by the new 2P reserves, making these two scenarios more robust.
Trading below the value of Vietnam alone. Transformational near term newsflow in Egypt
• We estimate the value of Pharos based on Vietnam only at £0.23-0.27 per share. This is 15-35% above the current share price.
• A formal farm-out process for the Egyptian assets has started and securing a partner to fund a development programme with four rigs in Egypt would increase the value of the Egyptian ~ 40 mmbbl 2P reserves and unlock the contingent and 108 mmbbl prospective resources. Our incremental unrisked value for the four rig programme is £0.17-0.19 per share (~85% upside to the current share price). Even assuming that the farm-in transaction would leave Pharos with only 75% of the value of its Egyptian assets would unlock £0.13-0.15 of additional value net to Pharos (~65% upside to the current share price).
• Pharos continues to negotiate with EGPC concerning potential improvements in the Concession Agreement terms. If successful, this could lead to an improvement of up to US$6/bbl in the breakeven price. We have previously estimated that securing similar terms to TransGlobe would boost our Core NAV by £0.10-0.12 per share and ReNAV by £0.13 0.15 per share. TransGlobe Energy’s share price has tripled since the new terms on its licences were announced.
Updating our valuation
We have incorporated in our valuation the YE20 net debt and have increased the likelihood of the three and four rig cases by 20% to 50% to reflect the fact that they are entirely supported by the 2P cases. We have increased our ReNAV from £0.34 to £0.39 per share, which excludes any upside associated with exploration. Our new target price has been set in line with that figure.
Companies: Pharos Energy PLC
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Companies: ZPHR PANR PRSM SENS CYAN G4M ITX CRCL FEN ZIN