Central Asia Metals: H1 2023 Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) results in H1 2023 follow a record prior comparable period, with the swing between the two primarily due to commodity price performance. H1 2023 net revenue of US$93.6m was down 18% YoY, EBITDA of US$48.9m was down 35% YoY. COGS was up 9.8% YoY given global inflationary pressures. Other charges on the P&L were minimal particularly now CAML is debt free. Owing to the timing of tax charges and some unfavourable working capital movements which we expect to be resolved

Interim results: solid performance amid challenging macro

The quality of CAML’s asset base came to the fore yet again in H1 2023 as the group maintained an impressively wide EBITDA margin despite the twin challenges of weaker base-metal prices and inflationary pressures on costs. The robust financial performance enabled CAML to declare a 9p interim dividend, maintaining its position amongst the top yielders in the junior mining sector. Capex requirements should reduce materially from next year as the project to transition to more flexible and sustainab

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Central Asia Metals: H1 2023 Operations Update

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) announced robust metal output in Q2 2023 and H1 2023. Copper output of 3.4kt in 2Q23 was down 6% YoY but up 1% QoQ, implying 1H22 production of 6.7kt, up 1.5% YoY. 2Q23 Lead production was flat YoY and up 8% QoQ to 7.1kt and flat YoY in 1H23 at 13.7kt. Zinc production of 4.8kt was 7% lower YoY and by 1% QoQ; 1H23 output was 7% lower YoY at 9.8kt. All three metals are on track to meet the company’s guidance and our forecast for copper remains unchanged with a 1% incr

Production trajectory on course to hit full-year targets

A characteristically stable production performance at Kounrad in H1 and higher lead grades at Sasa in Q2 look to have CAML well on course to meet its 2023 full-year targets for copper, zinc and lead production. Despite softer metal prices year-to-date, we think CAML’s comparatively very-low operating cost base should thus see it maintain peer-group leading margins and ultimately dividends this year. Moreover, with the project to transition to more flexible and sustainable mining and tailings-sto

VSA Capital Morning Miner 12/04/23 (Central Asia Metals)

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has announced robust results for Q1 2023 indicating that the company is on track for guidance across all three metals. Copper output was particularly strong with 3,336t produced, up 10% YoY but down 7% QoQ due to seasonal factors. This is amongst the strongest first quarter copper production figures in the group’s history.

Central Asia Metals: 2022 Full Year Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported full year earnings with revenue, EBITDA and adjusted net income all ahead of our estimates. Net revenue of US$221m was down 1% YoY (+1% against VSA estimate) owing to lower copper and lead prices offsetting gains in output while lower zinc output was offset by higher zinc prices. EBITDA of US$132m was down 7% YoY but 3% ahead of our forecast, with the inflationary impact largely due European power prices. A non-cash impairment at Sasa of US$55m meant that n

Wide margins maintained despite inflation headwinds

The inherent low-cost structure of CAML’s Kounrad and Sasa operations shone through in 2022 as the group delivered a very stable financial performance in the face of significant macro-economic headwinds. Neither operation was fully immune to global inflationary pressures, but they nonetheless drove EBITDA and free cash flow (FCF) generation to an impressive $132m (a margin of 57%) and $90m respectively, only a little below 2021 levels despite the macro challenges. This enabled CAML to continue t

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Interim Results

Diversified reported strong interim results, with production that was marginally below our estimate more than outweighed by tight cost control to deliver EBITDA ahead of our forecast; we broadly retain our FY23 estimates.

Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Suspended, Under Review) - Interim results; readmission now expected in Q4

Pantheon Resources - Positive Outlook for Pantheon Resources

We believe that the outlook for Pantheon Resources is significantly improving.

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 68p) - Cascadura production update

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Bushveld Minerals: H1 results; progress at Vanchem post period end

Bushveld Minerals (“BMN”) has released its results for H1 2023 having already released production of 1,784t at a weighted average cash cost of US$26.6/kgV, with H1 sales of 2,096tV through destocking during the period. Revenue for the period was US$78.4m, with adj EBITDA of US$10.3m and attributable NPAT of -US$14m. The company finished H1 with US$3.7m of cash and US$90.7m of debt. We expect H2 production of 1,992tV, split between 925tV from Vanchem and 1,067tV from Vametco, bringing full year p

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CMD - still plenty of growth potential

Pantheon Resources - Re-Entry of Alkaid-2

Pantheon Resources announced that it has commenced re-entry operations at the Alkaid-2 well. The company stated that the intention of the re-entry is to gather data relevant to optimise frack engineering – not to maximise production. The re-entry will involve the isolation and fracking of the SMD horizon of the Aphun field (above the previously tested Zone of Interest; on the edge of the SMD reservoir).

Doubling up on DLE

Allenby Capital - Baron Oil interims

Baron Oil’s 2023 interim statement, not surprisingly, emphasises that it is focused on preparing for drilling the Chuditch 1 appraisal well in the Timor Sea. This will test the discovery originally made by Shell in 1998. The well, we believe, will cost around US$25m which necessitates securing a joint-venture partner. Significantly, Baron refers to ‘advanced discussions with a number of potential funding partners.’ A drill or drop decision is required on or before December 18, 2023 although give

i3 Energy - Increasing Fair Value Estimate and Comprehensive Update Note

We are increasing our fair value estimate for i3 Energy to 25.6p from 21.1p to reflect i) higher oil and gas price assumptions and ii) changes to our valuation model.