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Mining Pre-Shift Brief

SIRIUS MINERALS+ (SXX, House Stock, share price at 4.1p) and ANGLO AMERICAN^ (AAL, NR, CNP) – Possible 5.5p/share offer from Anglo American vindicates our views on project quality; AAL has until Feb 5th to make firm offer | RESOLUTE MINING^ (RSG, NR, CNP) – CY19 production just c.3.8% below target; CY20 guidance to be released on 13 th Jan 2020

SXX AAL RSG

  • 08 Jan 20
  • -
  • Shore Capital
Mining Pre-Shift Brief

SIRIUS MINERALS+ (SXX, House Stock, share price at 3.7p) – We issue 19-page report: stellar tunnelling results underpin opportunities in twostage development plan | ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP^ (APF, NR, CNP) – Another sizable director purchase, this time by CEO; KCIL (associated with CEO) makes disposal to rebalance investment composition

Sirius Minerals Ecora Resources PLC

  • 02 Dec 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
Stellar tunnelling underpins opportunities

In a progress update on its Strategic Review earlier this month, Sirius Minerals unveiled a new two-stage project development plan (henceforth, ‘The Plan’) that requires significantly less upfront capital while retaining attractive returns. Most importantly, from our point of view, ‘mining’-type construction risk is now concentrated in the Initial Scope (Stage 1), along with the ‘risk sharing’-style shaftsinking construction contracts. As a result, the Deferred Scope (Stage 2) is materially de-risked for senior debt providers, which should facilitate raising senior debt. We expect that successful fund raises at each stage should catalyse major re-ratings. Beyond that, while Sirius would still be some years from becoming cash generative, an investment in the company should become progressively de-risked and enjoy significant value uplift as it advances towards production, we believe. House Stock.

Sirius Minerals

  • 02 Dec 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Cost savings at the crux of the new plan

Sirius’ announcement this morning has confirmed it will split the financing of the shafts and the remainder of the project, with the $600m shaft component targeted before April. We outlined the rationale for this strategy in September and ran through some of the maths, but today’s release implies scope for less dilution than expected, if it can be executed.

Sirius Minerals

  • 11 Nov 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Mining Pre-Shift Brief

SIRIUS MINERALS+ (SXX, House Stock, share price at 3.196p) – Strategic review update: two-stage development plan outlined, upfront capex substantially reduced, risks reallocated to entice senior debt | BACANORA MINERALS^ (BCN, NR, CNP) – Sonora funding package to be finalised in mid-2020 | CENTAMIN^ (CEY, NR, CNP) – NED Marna Cloete buys c.£17k of shares @ 112.5p/share on-market | POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL^ (POLY, NR, CNP) – Kyzyl: Reduced cutoff grades see Zone 1 reserves increased 18%; Zone 2 reserves expected in Q4 2020

SXX BCN CEY POLY CELTF

  • 11 Nov 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
Mining Pre-Shift Brief

SIRIUS MINERALS+ (SXX, House Stock, share price at 3.632p) – Major offtake agreement with state-owned Qatari distributor Muntajat; working together to explore multi-nutrient fertiliser production | BACANORA MINERALS^ (BCN, NR, CNP) – Ganfeng strategic investment completed | CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION^ (CMCL, NR, CNP) – Decent Q3 2019 in our view, all things considering; full-year production guidance reiterated | EMMERSON^ (EML, NR, CNP) – Optimal go-forward development plan selected, Khemisset FS remains on-track for H1 2020 delivery | FERREXPO^ (FXPO, NR, CNP) – Board: CEO Zhevago not been served any legal notice, he strongly denies allegations; “will take any actions that are needed” in interests of all shareholders and company | POTASH SECTOR – Highfield Resources: technical update sees Muga NPV and IRR much improved

SXX BCN CMCL EML FXPO

  • 14 Oct 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
Mining Pre-Shift Brief

SIRIUS MINERALS+ (SXX, House Stock, share price at 4.416p) – CEO’s family trust buys 250k shares @ 4.0p/share; financing setback is opportunity for better funding structure | SOLGOLD^ (SOLG, NR, CNP) – Constitutional Court dismisses petition to prohibit mining in Ecuador’s Azuay province; findings and conclusions set high bar for future anti-mining petitions

Sirius Minerals SolGold plc

  • 19 Sep 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
LIBERUM: UK Small & Mid Cap Dispatches

Sirius Minerals, Judges Scientific, AFH Financial, Science in Sport, CPP Group, GLI Finance, SMID Market Highlights

SXX JDG AFHP SIS LEND CWR PINE KYYWY

  • 18 Sep 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Morning Comment

Sirius Minerals, Judges Scientific, AFH Financial, Science in Sport, CPP Group, GLI Finance, Market Highlights

SXX JDG AFHP SIS LEND BLND CWR PINE KYYWY

  • 18 Sep 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Running numbers on potential financing solutions

Yesterday Sirius has announced the cancellation of its Stage 2 financing plans and the implementation of a strategic review after it failed to issue the $500m high yield bond required to unlock the full financing package. What matters for shareholder returns from here is the structure of any future financing solution and its likelihood of success.

Sirius Minerals

  • 18 Sep 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Mining Pre-Shift Brief

SIRIUS MINERALS+ (SXX, House Stock, share price at 10.0p) – US$500m offering suspended; reducing pace of development preserves cash, enabling review of financing alternatives over up to six months | CENTRAL ASIA METALS^ (CAML, NR, CNP) – H1 2019: revenues down, but bottom line and op cash gen essentially flat; another tasty interim divi announced

Sirius Minerals Central Asia Metals Plc

  • 17 Sep 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Bond offering delayed, to return in early September

Sirius announced this morning it has suspended its bond issue until market conditions have stabilised. The bond was due to price this week, but has coincided with an escalation in the China/US trade war, a devaulation of the RMB through 7 and a smaller than anticipated cut in the Fed funds rate which combined to drive a sharp equity/commodity sell off and risk-off in high-yield markets.

Sirius Minerals

  • 06 Aug 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
The Shore Capital Mining Pre-Shift Brief

SIRIUS MINERALS+ (SXX, House Stock, share price at 14.6p) – US$500m Initial Bonds offering temporarily suspended due to market turmoil; we expect relaunch in Sept ‘19

Sirius Minerals

  • 06 Aug 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
LIBERUM: UK Small & Mid Cap Dispatches

Early Cycle Indicator, Sirius Minerals, Spirent Communications, BBA Aviation, Spire Healthcare, SMID Market Highlights

SXX SPT BBA SPI

  • 05 Aug 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Bond pricing guidance published at 13.5%

Bloomberg has reported provisional guidance for the $500m bond, due to price next week, at a yield of 13.5%. The rate is above the 12% we modelled and adds $56m of interest costs over the life of the bond, but the far more important impact as far as the shares are concerned is improved certainty around completion of stage 2 finance given the c.$7bn gap between the current share price and our NPV.

Sirius Minerals

  • 02 Aug 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Bond roadshow commences, looking at comparable bonds

Sirius announced on Friday it will be commencing the high yield bond roadshow this week having secured a B rating from Fitch and "B-" from S&P. The roadshow is expected to last for three weeks, with the proceeds then put in escrow until the final terms of the RCF are completed, ahead of the end-September deadline. We see a number of reasons why terms could be more favourable than recent issues for mining development projects from Pilbara Minerals and Nemaska Lithium. Completion of the $500m bond would unlock the $2.5bn revolver from JPM and largely eliminate financing risk, a significant component of its 78% discount to NPV (68p), as we highlighted in our last note. Expect shares to grind higher as bond nears completion. BUY.

Sirius Minerals

  • 23 Jul 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Morning Commet

Sirius yesterday provided its regular quarterly for Q2 2019 – a key quarter where Sirius made significant progress in its funding for its Phase 2 financing. There was an equity raise of $425m and a new convertible bond of $400m; with a $500m senior secured bond and a final $2.5bn Revolving Credit Facility to be completed by the end of September 2019. Significant progress has been made at the various construction sites where many work flows are moving in parallel. Also of note was a final offtake agreement with the Indian Farmers Fertilisers Cooperative (IFFCO) in India for a substantial tonnage of polyhalite, taking peak volumes under contract to 11.7Mt/a. Sirius keeps making progress at its construction sites and continues to have confidence in completing its full financing to ensure it produces its first polyhalite in 2021.

Sirius Minerals

  • 03 Jul 19
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
First Light

Sirius Minerals (SXX) – Corporate - Q2 update | AfriTin (ATM) – Corporate – Results for Year Ending Feb 2019

Sirius Minerals Andrada Mining Limited

  • 03 Jul 19
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Q3 update: Financing coming together, progress at site

In its Q2 progress report Sirius reiterated its expectation for Stage 2 financing to be completed by the end of September. Once the bond offering and RCF documents are complete and the agencies have delivered a public rating, the company will be in a position to push ahead with marketing the bond.

Sirius Minerals

  • 02 Jul 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Mining Pre-Shift Brief

SIRIUS MINERALS+ (SXX, House Stock, share price at 15.9p) – 1Mtpa take-or-pay agreement with IFFCO takes aggregate peak contracted volume to 11.7Mtpa (13.4Mtpa including options) | AVESORO RESOURCES^ (ASO, NR, CNP) – Full-year production guidance cut; US$25-30m funding shortfall “likely”; we expect shares to fall heavily | CHARTS - Selected prices & currencies

Sirius Minerals Avesoro Resources

  • 12 Jun 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - On the cusp of a major de-risking event

The completion of $825m in equity and convertible financing now puts Sirius on the cusp of finalising the funding package for its WoodSmith mine. The company plans to issue a $500m high yield bond in the coming months which will unlock the remaining $2.5bn credit facility from JP Morgan, needed to complete the project.

Sirius Minerals

  • 23 May 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Stage 2a done: now for Stage 2b

Sirius Minerals is now at the crucial juncture of its US$3.8bn Stage 2 financing package for the construction of its paradigm-shifting North Yorkshire polyhalite project in England. The company has successfully completed the first phase (henceforth, ‘Stage 2a’) of this package, raising US$425m of equity and a further US$400m via the issuance of eight-year convertible bonds. We now look to the US$3.0bn ‘Senior Debt Event’ (or ‘Stage 2b’), which we expect will be completed over the summer of 2019. We expect this seminal event to catalyse a major re-rating of the shares, as it is in our view effectively the key to unlocking Sirius’s vast value potential. Beyond that, while Sirius would still be some years from becoming cash generative, an investment in the company should become progressively de-risked and enjoy significant value uplift as it advances towards production, we believe. Our Risked NPV estimate is 40p/share post the Senior Debt Event.

Sirius Minerals

  • 22 May 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
Successful Stage 2a financing: Open Offer oversubscribed, underlining “strong equity market support”

Sirius Minerals celebrated its Open Offer being oversubscribed. The company noted that this “underlines the strong equity market support for [Sirius’s] comprehensive markets-led solution for stage 2 funding”. To re-cap, Sirius has raised c.US$425m (c.£327m) in an oversubscribed equity placing and a further US$400m via the issuance of 8-year convertible bonds. The company had originally been seeking to raise US$400m each of equity and convertibles. Priced at 15p/share (a c.32% discount to the close of April 29th, 2019), 1.96bn shares were subscribed for in a Firm Placing, with the remaining 218.1m shares conditionally placed pursuant to a Placing & Open Offer. Shareholders qualifying for the Open Offer were able to subscribe at the same price for 1 new share for every 22 shares already owned, and there was also an Excess Application Facility. The Open Offer closed yesterday, with valid Open Offer applications satisfied via clawback from the conditionally-placed shares. The Firm Placing and the Placing & Open Offer are conditional on (amongst other things) shareholder approval at a General Meeting scheduled for today (May 21st, 2019). We expect shareholder approval to be forthcoming, following which Sirius would have 6.98bn shares in issue.

Sirius Minerals

  • 21 May 19
  • -
  • Shore Capital
MORNING COMMENT

Sirius has completed the first part of its long-awaited Phase 2 fundraise to complete the North Yorkshire Polyhalite project. It raised $425m via an oversubscribed placement at 15p with existing institutional investors. It also placed $400m of new Convertible Bonds and an additional $106.6m from the redemption of the existing Convertible Bonds. These placements were substantially underwritten. JP Morgan will now begin the process of raising the remaining $3.0bn debt required to finalise the phase 2 funding; an initial $500m senior secured guaranteed bond and a $2.5bn secured revolving credit facility, which is intended to be syndicated to other lenders. This latter portion is not underwritten. Our view is that the (oversubscribed) placing is great news for Sirius as it allows for continued construction at the fast pace already set. Sirius management is committed to bringing the project into production in the timescales indicated.

Sirius Minerals

  • 02 May 19
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
First Light

Sirius has today announced the European Offtake agreement it has been flagging for some time. This is a 10-year supply and distribution agreement with BayWa Agri Supply and Trade B.V. The guaranteed minimum POLY4 volumes under the Agreement increase to 2.5 Mtpa in year five taking Sirius’ aggregate peak contracted sales volume to 10.7Mtpa (12.1 Mtpa with customer options). POLY4 is the processed form of polyhalite – a naturally occurring mineral which forms the resource at its Woodsmith mine project in North Yorkshire – the mineral contains potassium, calcium, magnesium and sulphur, 4 of the 6 macro nutrients essential for healthy plant growth.

Sirius Minerals

  • 25 Apr 19
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Modification of debt structure to derisk IPA

Following talks with prospective lenders, Sirius Minerals have modified their debt plans so to "reduce both the risk and the quantum of any IPA guaranteed bond tranche to the taxpayer". In doing so hoping to secure commitment letters from the banks as soon as possible.

Sirius Minerals

  • 22 Jan 19
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
First Light

Sirius Minerals (SXX) – Corporate – Q4 2018 Update | Caspian Sunrise (CASP) – Corporate – Completion of A3 Best Acquisition | Sanderson Group (SND) – Corporate – AGM Update | Spectra Systems (SPSY) – Corporate – Small but meaningful contract win | Dillistone Group (DSG) – Corporate – GatedTalent to be profit and cash positive by Q419

SXX CASP SPSY DSG SND

  • 22 Jan 19
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
First Light

Sirius Minerals (SXX) – Corporate – Teesside port construction contract signed | LPA Group (LPA) – Corporate – Year-end trading update | Dillistone Group (DSG) – Corporate – GatedTalent Update – Momentum increases

SXX LPA DSG

  • 05 Nov 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
Lining up the key catalysts for success

Sirius has entered Q4 with a strong operational tailwind having established 3 construction sites for the Woodsmith Mine project and generated momentum with its new supply agreements which both establish initial demand for its natural multinutrient fertilizer and sets a price which generates significant returns. We move now into the final phase of Stage 2 funding with Sirius looking to conclude negotiations for its $3bn senior debt funding package (expected Q1 19) and finalise an additional capital component of between $0.4-0.6bn for which Sirius sees several alternative funding solutions. The company has now concluded most of the planning for the various modules of construction and has negotiated fixed term deals for much of it, transferring risk away from Sirius shareholders. The planned construction timeline remains in place with first polyhalite production expected by the beginning of 2022, ramping up to a capacity of 10Mt/yr by 2024 – expansions thereafter (funded from cash flow) see capacity for 13Mt/yr by 2027 and then 20Mt/yr by 2030. We set our SOTP risked fair value at 49p/sh using a scenariobased approach with a production plan to ultimately produce 20Mt/yr polyhalite with our NPV starting in 2025. This scenario removes the distortion of the high capital spend in the first few years balancing with the significant cash flow generation we see in future years. There is upside through rebasing POLY4 prices upwards as the product becomes accepted.

Sirius Minerals

  • 01 Nov 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
First Light

Sirius Minerals (SXX) – Corporate – Progress update and H1 2018 results | Frontera Resources (FRR) – Corporate – Interims |

Sirius Minerals Frontera Resources

  • 27 Sep 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - 2.5mtpa binding offtake and vertical integration in Brazil

Sirius have announced a binding offtake agreement at a peak volume rate of 2.5mt of POLY4 with Cibra, Brazil’s 6th largest distributor. In conjunction Sirius will purchase a 30% stake in Cibra, via an equity swap and the issuance of 95m Sirius shares.

Sirius Minerals

  • 17 Sep 18
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
FIRST LIGHT

Sirius Minerals (SXX) – Corporate – South American Offtake and stake in offtake Partner | Thalassa (THAL) – Corporate – Interim results

Sirius Minerals Thalassa Holdings Ltd

  • 17 Sep 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Capex increased, project de-risking

Sirius has announced it will require a further $400m-$600m in Stage 2 financing, mainly relating increased costs from the Mineral Transport System tunnel. The NPV impact of the cost increase is <10%, however depending on the ultimate financing solution our NPV per share will reduce from £1.08 to between £0.75 and £1.00.

Sirius Minerals

  • 06 Sep 18
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Comprehensive update on Woodsmith mine timelines and costs

Sirius Minerals has today provided a comprehensive update on developments at the Woodsmith mine. The key takeaways for us are 1) transfer of risk from Sirius to contractors as it puts many phases of work on fixed cost contracts; 2) offtake deals in Brazil and Europe (~3Mt/yr) are close to finalisation; 3) reduction in expected operating costs – based on new inputs; 4) a modest increase in capital cost; 5) a requirement for additional funding $400m-$600m based on understanding of new known capital contracts; and 6) debt funding is expected to be concluded by the end of the year and delivered in Q1 2019. In light of these significant changes we will update our fair value in due course (from 60p/sh). The Sirius story remains one of the highlights of the mining sector in London, and in our opinion, with its high profit margin production and strong cash flow potential, stands to deliver superior returns to shareholders.

Sirius Minerals

  • 06 Sep 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
​First Light

Sirius Minerals (SXX) – Corporate - Comprehensive update on Woodsmith mine timelines and costs | Avation (AVAP) – Corporate – Full year results ahead; well positioned for continued growth

Sirius Minerals Avation PLC

  • 06 Sep 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - When Alphaville attacks: addressing the bear arguments

Yesterday FT Alphaville ran a piece amalgamating much of the bear fodder on Sirius here. We think its a worthwhile exercise to address the key points of contention highlighted in the story in order to place some of the project's risks in context.

Sirius Minerals

  • 08 Aug 18
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Two new major binding offtakes in China

Sirius has announced two new binding take-or-pay offtake agreements with Chinese customers totaling 2mtpa, increasing its peak contracted sales to 5.7mtpa. As part of the agreement it has terminated its 1mtpa contract with the Yunnan Dian Huang Peony company, with the new offtakes with larger partners likely to improve the credit risk profile which should be helpful to stage 2 financing.

Sirius Minerals

  • 20 Jul 18
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
First Light

Sirius Minerals (SXX) – Corporate – New offtake agreements increase annual contracted sales volume to 5.7Mt/a

Sirius Minerals

  • 20 Jul 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
First Light

Sirius today announces two new offtake agreements, this time with Chinese partners for the minimum sale of 2Mt/a of POLY4 into China. Guangzhou Eiliseng Biotech Co Ltd (“Eiliseng”) and Yantai Service Agricultural Science and Technology Co Ltd (“YSA”) have agreed to take 1.2Mt/a and 0.8Mt/a respectively. The deal with Eiliseng replaces an earlier 1Mt/a deal with Yunnan Dian Huang Peony Industrial Group Co Ltd (“Dian Huang”) who will now buy its POLY4 directly from Eiliseng in China. This deal takes Sirius’ contracted sales tonnage from 4.7Mt/a to 5.7Mt/a. The contracts run for 10 years on prices similar to those for other contracts already announced and there is the potential for them to increase in size marginally.

Sirius Minerals

  • 20 Jul 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Deal with Redcar Bulk Terminal de-risks

Sirius confirmed this morning it will be using the existing Redcar Bulk Terminal (RBT), previously used by Tata Steel to import raw materials, as its export terminal for Stage 1 development to 10mtpa. The deal should result in a small reduction in port capex (from $229m in the BFS), have no impact on guided opex but de-risk the development of the port by reducing the scope of construction work to be undertaken (dredging, birth construction etc.).

Sirius Minerals

  • 09 Jul 18
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
First Light

Sirius Minerals (SXX) – Corporate – Agreement to use Redcar Bulk Terminal at Teesside | UK Oil & Gas Investments (UKOG) – Corporate – Intention to change trading status

Sirius Minerals UK Oil & Gas Plc

  • 09 Jul 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals - Q2 project update: Bank commitments targeted for Q3

Sirius released its Q2 operational review this morning. Stage 2 financing remains on track with binding commitment letters targeted for the end of Q3 and financial close by year end.

Sirius Minerals

  • 02 Jul 18
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Regular quarterly update

Sirius Minerals (SXX) – Corporate – Regular quarterly update | Avation (AVAP) – Corporate – Year-end trading update

Sirius Minerals Avation PLC

  • 02 Jul 18
  • -
  • Zeus Capital
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals - Re-rating triggers on the horizon

Sirius currently trades at a c.70% discount to our £1.10 NPV, a function of marketing risk, financing risk and construction risk. The company is in a strong position to largely eliminate two of these three risks in the next 6 months.

Sirius Minerals

  • 30 May 18
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - FY 2017 results: Focus on stage 2 financing

Sirius 2017 results reviewed key milestones achieved during the year but for us, the key takeaway from the statement and the last couple of weeks has been more granularity around financing. Management are clearly stepping up the pressure on the government to deliver a guarantee over up to $2bn of debt - in the Chairman’s statement Russell Scrimshaw described it as “essential”.

Sirius Minerals

  • 06 Mar 18
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals - A few takeaways from the quarterly update

The headline from Sirius' first quarter update is that the project remains on time and on budget. For us, the key takeaways from the release were the company is targeting 1.7mt of offtakes by mid-year (we thought it may take longer), the D-walling is 2 months behind schedule but the company is confident there is still plenty of fat in the schedule to absorb this delay and the signing of the shaft sinking contract is a priority, but still not imminently on the critical path.

Sirius Minerals

  • 12 Jan 18
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - 750kt binding offtake agreement signed

Sirius has announced it has signed a 750kt binding offtake agreement for the supply of POLY4 with Wilmar International, for use and resale exclusively in South East Asia. The agreement takes Sirius binding offtake agreements up to 4.35mt and is a significant step towards achieving its target of 6-7mt of agreements, needed to deliver Stage 2 financing.

Sirius Minerals

  • 26 Oct 17
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Q3 update: construction commences in earnest

Sirius quarterly project update highlights the mine remains on time and budget, although some of the work schedules have evolved in terms of timing and scope. Language around marketing and sales contracts has become incrementally more positive and some colour was given on the current phase of stage 2 financing discussions.

Sirius Minerals

  • 29 Sep 17
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - H1'17 results: Shaft sinking contract finalised

For us the key takeaway from Sirius' H1'17 results was the completion of the shaft sinking contract, which has confirmed the project is on time and on budget and has paved the way for the commencement of diaphragm wall construction and ultimately shaft sinking. No news on further offtakes, but on the conference call management confirmed they are targeting incremental binding agreements by year-end.

Sirius Minerals

  • 16 Aug 17
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Progress at site and in marketing

Sirius held a sell-side site visit at the end of last week, highlighting progress on a number of fronts. Earthworks are well underway at site with shaft sinking likely to commence in June.

Sirius Minerals

  • 15 May 17
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Confirmation of Main Board listing & project update

Sirius has released its quarterly project update and also confirmed it will be moving to the Main Board of the LSE by the end of April. Progress continues as expected with site prep to commence in Q2 and we have made no changes to our estimates.

Sirius Minerals

  • 28 Mar 17
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - The fertilizer revolution begins

With stage 1 financing complete, Sirius is now set on the path to develop the world’s first large scale polyhalite mine, which will change the landscape of nutrient supply in the fertilizer industry.

Sirius Minerals

  • 25 Nov 16
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Fully underwritten equity and convertible bond placing

Sirius has announced this morning the final component of its Stage 1 funding with the launch of an $850m equity and convertible bond offering. The equity component will be £330-400m priced at between 20-30p and is covered at the bottom of the range.

Sirius Minerals

  • 02 Nov 16
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Hancock royalty valuation implications

Sirius Minerals yesterday announced that it had signed a $300m financing deal with Hancock Prospecting. The deal represents extremely low dilution finance on our ramp-up and price assumptions - we now estimate the same level of value dilution could only be achieved in an equity financing if funds were raised at 170p (vs. 95p in previous note).

Sirius Minerals

  • 26 Oct 16
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals - $300m financing agreement with Hancock Prospecting

Sirius has entered into a $300m financing agreement with Hancock Prospecting, comprising both a royalty agreement and straight equity agreement. The deal is a clear endorsement of the project from a major Australian mining and agricultural business, reduces the required Phase 1 financing to $800m and is significantly less dilutive than straight equity.

Sirius Minerals

  • 25 Oct 16
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
AIM Breakfast

Metal Tiger (MTR.L) | Stilo International (STL.L) | Jaywing (JWNG.L) | Water Intelligence (WATR.L) | New World Oil & Gas (NEW.L) | Sirius Minerals (SXX.L) | Vertu motors (VTU.L) | Paysafe Group (PAYS.L) | Tissue Regenix Group (TRX.L) | ProPhotonix (PPIX.L)

SXX VTU PAYS TRX PPIX NEW MTR 0M2Z WATR D6BE

  • 01 Sep 16
  • -
  • Hybridan
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Site visit 23rd of August and interactive model

Sirius Minerals will be hosting an investor sit visit to the York Potash project on August 23rd which will incorporate viewing of the mine site, port and materials handling sites and interactions with key management personnel in charge of each aspect of development. We've included a rough itinerary at the bottom of this email, please do get in touch if you would like to attend. Management will also be available for meetings on the 7th and 8th of September.

Sirius Minerals

  • 08 Aug 16
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Lower capex & financing requirements drive TP up to 50p

We are raising our TP to 50p (set at c.50% NPV). Sirius has announced that through working with its preferred contractors it has been able to reduce the capex required to build its polyhalite mine by 18% from $3.6bn to $2.9bn. This in turn means a reduction in financing requirements and hence dilution for shareholders.

Sirius Minerals

  • 24 Jun 16
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals - Financing will fertilise

Following completion of its DFS, Sirius is now at the final hurdle to breaking ground on the North Yorkshire polyhalite project. Successful financing would be the largest re-rating catalyst to date, unlocking some of the upside to our $7.1bn NPV.

Sirius Minerals

  • 06 May 16
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Feasibility released, focus turns to funding

Sirius has released its Definitive Feasibility Study, highlighting marginally higher capex but lower opex estimates than we had forecast and delivering robust economics. Capex is expected at $3.6bn for the first 10mt vs. our $3.3bn estimate (for 13mt), whilst opex of $33/t compares to our $38/t forecast. Applying Sirius pricing methodology the project delivers a $15bn NPV vs. our previous $4.6bn estimate. The key difference in our valuations remains pricing assumptions; we assume prices are set by production costs at the marginal producer, rather than nutrient value. Management focus will now turn to delivering the significant debt and equity funding package of $1.6bn for the first phase.

Sirius Minerals

  • 17 Mar 16
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
BFS now expected by the end of Q1

Sirius Minerals has announced today that it is moving back the publication date of its BFS to the end of March from the previously expected January completion. The delay doesn't have any baring on our projected economics given the c.5 year build and 100+ year mine life of the project, but it does reduce the fat left in our base case funding timeline by two months given the final BFS numbers will be relied upon by both debt and equity investors funding the first stage. We have first capex being spend in the second half of 2016. Funding remains the major hurdle to project delivery, and more clarity on the target structure and process will emerge following the release of the BFS.

Sirius Minerals

  • 27 Jan 16
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Another major Chinese offtake agreement announced

Sirius has announced a take or pay offtake agreement for polyhalite with Huaken International, a Chinese potash importer. The agreement is for seven years with volumes ramping up to 0.5mT p.a. over the period. As with Sirius's other offtake agreements, pricing is based on a formula linked to polyhalite's constituent nutrients. This is another major step forward for Sirius, further de-risking the project from a marketing perspective. The company has now signed 3.6mT p.a. binding offtake agreements.

Sirius Minerals

  • 24 Dec 15
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
ICL's UK mine conversion plan endorses polyhalite

At its Q3 results yesterday ICL announced that its UK mine will be ceasing MOP production in 2018 to focus on the production of polysulphate (polyhalite). The shift in strategy away from MOP is the clearest endorsement yet of the economics of polysulphate production. At current prices ICL foresees cash margins in the realm of 50-63%, it expects the mine's EBIT to double by 2020 through its conversion to polysulphate. Given the scale of the Sirius operation and its proposed underground haulage system, theoretical margins (for a given price) should be superior. We await the results of its Feasibility Study in December. BUY.

Sirius Minerals

  • 13 Nov 15
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Fertiliser interloper

Sirius Minerals is attempting to shake-up the global fertiliser market by developing the first ever large scale polyhalite mine. After five years of planning the project has now been permitted and Sirius will be in a position to finance the development following the BFS in Q4'15. This report answers key questions about polyhalite, Sirius’ funding strategy and project economics. We raise our target priceto 38p reflecting 50% of NPV. We also attach an interactive model showing the sensitivity to key inputs.

Sirius Minerals

  • 20 Jul 15
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Park Authority members approve development

Last night the members of the North York Moors Park Authority approved the development of Sirius' York Potash Project, within the National Park. With the key permitting hurdle now overcome, the focus now becomes delivery of the Bankable Feasibility Study and funding the mine. We are undertaking a detailed review of our model and assumptions but quickly re-cap the investment case below. Our 29p target price is based on 0.5x fully diluted NPV of a 6mtpa operation.

Sirius Minerals

  • 01 Jul 15
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
Approvals update and DFS on track for January release

Sirius Minerals confirms that all key planning approvals for the York Potash project have passed through their Judicial Review (JR) windows (the period when parties can challenge the validity of the decision on legal process grounds). Sirius is not aware of any JR having been lodged and, although technically any appellant has until 7th December 2015 to notify, Sirius believes any JR notification is now highly unlikely.

Sirius Minerals

  • 01 Jul 15
  • -
  • Panmure Liberum
SP Angel Morning Report

EMED MINING PUBLIC LTD | KEFI MINERALS PLC | ORTAC RESOURCES LIMITED | SIRIUS MINERALS PLC

SXX ATYM KEFI OTC

  • 01 Jul 15
  • -
  • SP Angel
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