Morning Note – 23 November 2021

Trifast - Interims – seeing strong recovery, no change to forecasts

Interim results show a strong bounce-back in trading levels across all of Trifast’s territories and end customer markets, with light vehicles highlighted as gaining market share. Supply chain challenges saw input cost rises, which had a temporary impact in H1, but due to price rises gross margins should normalise in Q4. Higher inventories partly explain the shift back into net debt of £5.1m. No change to forecasts. We maintain our 187p price target, with the shares trading at a discount to its p

Morning Note – 21 October 2021

Trifast - Half-year trading update – trading in line

The group’s H1 update signals that the post pandemic rebound continues, with H1 revenues expected to show a c.30% increase, and revenues and profits in line with expectations. Some supply chain issues and input cost inflation are being experienced and passed on to customers with a temporary impact on H1 gross margins, but should end the year at normalised levels. No change to underlying trading forecasts, with forecasts upgraded to reflect the recent acquisition of Falcon. As such, we raise our

Morning Note – 28 July 2021

Trifast - AGM update – seeing a strong recovery: in line with forecasts

The group’s AGM statement highlights a strong rebound in activity during Q1, with improved market demand, helped by new customer and project wins. Indeed, it reports revenues up >50% year on year. Progress continues with Atlas, with Spain and Holland now live. The previously flagged supply chain constraints and price pressures continue but are being mitigated by price rises. No change to forecast expectations are signalled. The shares have moderately underperformed in the quarter and offer good

Morning Note – 22 June 2021

Trifast - FY results in line; net cash highlights M&A opportunity

Full-year results were in line with expectations. Cost controls contained the reduction in profits, with adjusted EBIT margin down 150bps to 6.4%, while a focus on cash resulted in cash conversion of 148%. With net cash of £13.3m, the group is in a strong position to step up its acquisition strategy in a fragmented market. Some short-term cost and supply chain issues have previously been flagged, which affect short-term margins, but should be recouped. No change to forecasts or our 187p price ta

Morning Note – 22 April 2021

Trifast - Year-end update – trading ahead of expectations

The group has posted a positive trading update, pointing to FY trading ahead of expectations following a strong Q4. The UK and EU are now recovering well, with the US lagging. All sectors are in recovery, with domestic appliances and distributors restocking. Some supply chain cost pressures are evident, as with other industrials. We upgrade FY21 EPS by 7.3% on the back of strong Q4 trading. In our FY22 forecasts some higher input costs offset rising revenues to keep profit expectations unchanged

Morning Note – 18 February 2021

Savannah Energy - FY21 trading update

Savannah’s FY21 trading update demonstrates continued progress at its Nigerian operations, with strong growth in gas volumes, revenues ahead of guidance, robust cost controls and net debt levels declining. This should be encouraging for investors as Savannah expands its sphere of operations and looks to deliver growth on multiple fronts – the recently announced Chad/Cameroon acquisitions are highly accretive and set to more than double the scale of the company’s operations, while additional grow