Morning Note – 26 July 2022

Trifast - Full-year results – some margin pressure continues

The group’s results were slightly ahead of expectations, in terms of both revenue and profits. Management has largely returned gross margins to normal levels following its first phase of price rises, with recent inflation (energy prices) now being matched by further price rises. In the short term, this results in a margin lag that affects H1 profitability, with a much stronger H2 anticipated. We pare back our FY23 expectations, with a 3.5% reduction in EPS. The extension of supply-chain lead tim

Trifast# - FY22 results – a strong finish

Trifast reported better results than we forecast for the year to 31 March 2022 delivering on the strong finish into the close reflected in the trading statement. On a Constant Exchange Rate (CER) basis, revenue increased by 18.7% YoY driving a 35.3% increase in underlying diluted EPS to 8.44p. Trifast hiked the FY22 dividend by 31.3% to 2.10p. While we continue to expect further recovery, we have trimmed our FY23 forecasts to reflect continued uncertainty over the economic and inflationary outlo

Morning Note – 5 May 2022

Trifast - YE update: trading inline, stock increase results in higher debt

The group has announced its trading update for the year ending 31 March. Trading for the year has been in line with expectations, with challenges seen in its supply chain and input price inflation. Management actions have largely mitigated these effects, with a new round of price increases expected to recoup recent input price increases. YE net debt at £25.0m is higher than expected due to further investment in stock and working capital, and to extended lead times etc. Despite the higher debt, a

Trifast# - FY22 trading update – strong finish

Trifast has released its FY22 trading update ahead of the results to end March, due for publication on 21 June. Strong trading continued in 4QFY22 with results expected to be in line with the Board's expectations. We increase our EPS forecast by 5% to 7.8p on lower tax and bump up net debt to reflect continued inventory build. Trifast has been able to pass on higher costs to date, but the future remains characterised by volatility and uncertainty. We maintain our Buy recommendation and Target Pr

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 24/02/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: Arena Events has left AIM. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? URA Holdings, a London based mining exploration and development company, intends to list on the Main Market (Standard). URA, a former AIM-listed company, is refinanced and ready for listing as an African focused mineral exploration company. The Company’s purpose is to seek unique, value-enhancing opportunities in minerals as a project generator including to prove-up early-stage explo

Morning Note – 24 February 2022

Trifast - Trading on track for FY expectations, despite cost pressures

The group has announced a trading update for the first ten months of the year, confirming that it is trading in line with existing expectations for FY22. Akin to most others it has seen raw material and other supply chain challenges, although mitigating action has been taken by increasing prices and holding additional inventory. It signals recent energy and salary cost pressures will feed in throughout the supply chain. No change to profit forecasts, though with higher stocks affecting FY22 cash

Trifast# - Growth Ambitions to the Fore

Trifast has released a good trading update which continues to underscore the Group's ambitions to be substantially bigger and take advantage of a range of opportunities in its focus markets, driving organic and inorganic expansion across multiple geographies and customers. Although FY22 expectations remain unchanged, we believe the Group's recent actions provide the basis for a period of sustained market share gain. Buy.

Morning Note – 23 November 2021

Trifast# - Optimistic Outlook – Strong Recovery in H1

Trifast has released FY22 interim results which show strength of recovery in end markets and reflect headline commentary from the trading update on 21 October. The outlook is optimistic and the Group's strategy is increasingly validated through market share gains and resulting financial performance. Buy

Trifast - Interims – seeing strong recovery, no change to forecasts

Interim results show a strong bounce-back in trading levels across all of Trifast’s territories and end customer markets, with light vehicles highlighted as gaining market share. Supply chain challenges saw input cost rises, which had a temporary impact in H1, but due to price rises gross margins should normalise in Q4. Higher inventories partly explain the shift back into net debt of £5.1m. No change to forecasts. We maintain our 187p price target, with the shares trading at a discount to its p

Morning Note – 21 October 2021

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - FY22 annual dividend is 33% higher than our estimate

Union Jack Oil# - West Newton update

West Newton update

IOG - H1 2022 Results

H1 2022 Results

SHORE CAPITAL - SAVANNAH ENERGY+ (SAVE) - BUY at 25.4p – Strong interim results; Chad-Cameroon deal completion anticipated in Q4

Impressive H1 sees record interim dividend

A typically strong operational performance at Kounrad and materially higher realised zinc prices at Sasa versus the year-ago period helped CAML overcome industry-common cost inflation pressure to post a 16% increase in EBITDA and widen its margin to an impressive 63%. This in turn has given the group confidence to declare a record interim dividend of 10p, which annualised puts CAML on a compelling yield of 9%. Despite increasing metals markets volatility and the potential for further inflationar

Union Jack Oil# - West Newton CPR assessment

West Newton CPR assessment

Union Jack Oil# - Wressle update; Egdon Resources stake

Wressle update; Egdon Resources stake

IOG - Production update

Production update

Jersey Oil and Gas* - H1 2022 results and farm out update

H1 2022 results and farm out update

Central Asia Metals: Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported record H1 results on the back of robust production and higher commodity prices. H1 2022 net revenue of US$114m was up 13% YoY, EBITDA of US$75m was up 16% YoY and the EBITDA margin increased 2pp to 63%. An FX gain of US$7m, combined with the reductions in interest payments from debt reduction and higher profits meant net income was up 72% YoY to US$53m. With capex this year weighted to H2, the company’s free cash flow metric was up 7% YoY to US$52m enabling

LIBERUM: Emmerson* - Updated short-term risked target of 12.9p on ESIA permit receipt

Cenkos: Chariot Ltd -- Enabling the Energy Transition

Chariot has announced a partnership with Total Eren to jointly develop the Nour Project, a large-scale green hydrogen project to be located in Mauritania. The consortium will benefit from the dedicated expertise of Total Eren's team, holding a wide range of experience and knowledge in solar, wind, hybrid and green hydrogen projects globally. The involvement of Total Eren adds balance sheet strength and credibility to the project, whilst strengthening the existing relationship between Total Eren

Auctus on Friday - 30/09/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Challenger Energy (CEG LN): Discontinuing coverage - We are discontinuing coverage on Challenger Energy Group. Longboat Energy (LBE LN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: 3-5 well programme in 2023. Increased resources estimate at Kveikje – There were no surprises in the 1H22 financials. The gross contingent resources estimates at Kveikje have been increased from 28-48 mmboe to 35-60 mmboe (2C-3C) based on a new CPR following post wel

Cenkos: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd -- Origin Divests Beetaloo Interest

Falcon's Beetaloo JV partner, Origin Energy has announced its intention to exit all of its upstream exploration permits as part of a strategic decision to focus on cleaner energy and customer solutions. As part of this strategy, Origin has agreed to divest 100% of its interest in the Beetaloo Basin to a JV of Tamboran Resources and Bryan Sheffield for an upfront consideration of A$60m and a 5.5% royalty on future production from Origin's 77.5% working interest. At US$60m the upfront consideratio

Year-exit target rate in sight despite Kiln 3 challenges

H1 was a mixed half for Bushveld, the continuing strong performance of Vametco offset by unexpected challenges associated with the commissioning and subsequent ramp up of Kiln 3 at Vanchem. The latter has prompted the group to reduce full-year group production guidance (with unit cost expectations increased somewhat), though we still expect positive EBITDA for the full-year and H2 capex and debt repayment obligations look adequately covered. The year-exit production rate target of 5,000-5,400t p