Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Medigene, PetroMatad, Brady and Stride Gaming. Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.
Brady has received a recommended all-cash offer at 10p per share (a 50.8% premium to the closing price), valuing the issued share capital at £8.3m, from Hanover Active Equity Fund II, a private equity (PE) investor focused on SMEs in the UK and Nordic markets. The cash offer has been declared final, will be declared unconditional as to acceptances based on 50% of the share capital and may only be increased if there is a counter-offer. Before the bid, Brady had been looking to secure additional funding for a turnaround strategy, and although negotiations have advanced, the company has not yet secured unconditional funding.
For the purposes of the Takeover Code, Edison Investment Research is deemed to be connected with Brady plc. Under Rule 20.1 Edison must not include any profit forecast, quantified financial benefits statement, asset valuation or estimate of other figures key to the offer, except to the extent that such forecasts, statements, valuations or estimates have been published prior to the offer period (as defined in the Takeover Code) by an offeror or the offeree company (as appropriate) in accordance with the requirements of the Code.
Consequently we have removed our estimates until the Offer Period ends.
Following its August trading update highlighting a slowdown in new sales, Brady’s interim results were in line with our expectations. H119 revenue was £9.5m, a 9% fall vs H118, with an EBITDA loss of £1.8m and a PBT loss of £2.5m. Net cash fell to £1.0m from £4.6m at FY18. Recurring revenues represented 82% of total revenues. The new CEO has completed her strategic review and management is focused on delivering a more scalable, predictable and sustainable business to allow the company to become the leading independent E/CTRM vendor. The commodities sector remains attractive and as and when Brady demonstrates renewed sales momentum, it should become a compelling investment, currently trading on an FY19e EV/sales multiple of 1.1x.
With the company expecting FY19 revenues of c £19m, c 22% down on our previous forecasts (£24.3m), new sales have slowed markedly since Brady’s last trading update on 30 May. This represents a perfect storm for Brady with it trying to affect a turnaround in the face of significant market and business uncertainties. We have revised our FY19 forecasts and now anticipate a PBT loss of £4.2m in FY19 (previously £1.0m) with FY19 net cash falling from £2.7m to £1.2m net debt. We have withdrawn our FY20/21 forecasts pending further clarification expected with the interim results on 23 September. However, as a market leader in the attractive E/CTRM space, as and when Brady demonstrates renewed sales momentum it should become an attractive investment on an FY19 EV/sales multiple of 1.5x.
Companies: BRY ARS TAL HDD ENW BSE ORCH EDL RQIH
In a brief in-line trading update, Brady has said it has made substantial progress in the first four months of FY19 and the sales pipeline is building. We are maintaining our forecasts. Carmen Carey took on the CEO role in February and we expect the results of her review of the business and new strategy to be outlined with the interims in September. The market opportunity is substantial and we believe Brady is well positioned to benefit from the significant sector consolidation.
Renold plc—a leading international supplier of industrial chains and related power transmission products, announced that it will cancel the listing of the Company from the premium segment and apply for admission on AIM. Expected 06 June 2019.
Alumasc Group plc, the premium building products, systems and solutions group, has announced its intention to move from the Premium Segment of the main market to AIM. Expected market cap of £33.4m. Expected 25 June 2019
Companies: VAST AMO TAL FEN BUR BRY PAT IMMO B90
The last two years have seen a significant streamlining of the cost base and a focus on delivering on several significant legacy contracts, which will be completed in FY19. There has also been significant investment in product in FY18 (R&D was 30% of sales). Carmen Carey took on the CEO role in February and management is now looking to exploit the benefits of the streamlining and investment, with an increasing emphasis on new sales. The market opportunity is substantial and we believe Brady is well positioned to benefit from the significant sector consolidation.
FY18 numbers were broadly in line with expectations and we have maintained our forecasts. Management remains confident on the outlook as the group stands to benefit from the streamlining and investment of the last few years. In December, Brady appointed Carmen Carey, currently a Brady non-executive director, as its new CEO. An initial priority for the new CEO will be developing the new sales strategy. The market opportunity is substantial, and we believe Brady is well positioned to benefit from the significant sector consolidation.
Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m.
Circassia Pharma (CIR.L) - specialty pharmaceutical company focused on respiratory disease transferring from the Main Market. No funds being raised. Due 4 Feb.
Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected late January 2019.
Chaarat Gold Holdings—RTO, the Company intends to acquire Kapan Mining and Processing CJSC, which owns the Shahumyan mediumsized polymetallic mine in Kapan in the Republic of Armenia. No raise, market cap of £110.1m, due early Feb
Companies: W7L MRS TOT NET ANP BRY ALSP ARCM CFX
Brady has undergone a significant transition into a leaner, more focused business. Costs have been taken out and the recycling business sold earlier this year as it did not fit well with the business. The main priorities are delivering on legacy contracts while significant resources are being used to refresh the product, with c 25% of FY18 sales expected to be spent on R&D. Consequently near-term ratings remain elevated. However, the market opportunity is substantial and we believe Brady is well positioned to benefit from the significant sector consolidation.
Brady (BRY LN) Solid H1, FY18 in line | StatPro Group (SOG LN) Revenue and TP reduced, but valuation-based buying opportunity
Companies: Brady (BRY:LON)Statpro Group (SOG:LON)
In a brief AGM update, Brady said that trading has been in line. Following a period of significant change, with new people hired and the business having been streamlined, the primary focus has shifted to re-engineering the software. The initial outcome of this was shown with the launch of the group’s first FAST START implementation offering in May. We will review our forecasts following tomorrow’s capital markets day. If Brady can successfully transition to the cloud, there is a lot to go for as E/CTRM is an attractive growth industry and Brady has a high-quality customer base.
Brady (BRY LN) Positive AGM statement | EKF Diagnostics (EKF LN) Renalytix AI partnership with Mount Sinai | Itaconix (ITX LN) Operational update to consolidate activities in the US | Photo-Me International (PHTM LN) Saru mo ki kara ochiru Urban&Civic (UANC LN) NNNAV +3.5%, expected to exceed guidance on completions
Companies: BRY EKF ITX PHTM UANC
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Sumo is trading strongly, with several drivers that could lead the company to outperform 2021 earnings expectations, in our view. Even based on conservative earnings expectations, we believe shares offer attractive value to growth.
Companies: Sumo Group Plc
IQE has announced it expects FY20 revenues to be c £178m. This is ahead of our estimates, which we revised upwards in November, reflecting outperformance in both the wireless and photonics segments. We have updated our FY20 forecasts. Given IQE’s leveraged business model, this results in a 64% uplift in EPS. Noting the uncertainty about the effect of a pandemic-related recession on the rate of smartphone sales growth, we leave our FY21 estimates unchanged for the time being.
Companies: IQE plc
As a nation, we love knocking ourselves. However in truth, we’re actually a pretty pioneering bunch. For instance, the experts at Oxford University & AstraZeneca have developed one of the world’s 3 most important vaccines in double quick time. Plus, many other British firms are creating similar breakthrough Covid inventions, such as Kromek.
Companies: Kromek Group Plc
MySale has delivered a striking turnaround in profitability with H1 FY21 EBITDA of A$2.5m up an impressive A$6.1m YOY. We believe this marked turnaround validates its AZN First strategy and signals the Group now has a robust and cash generative operating platform on which it can scale.
Companies: MySale Group plc
Synairgen (SNG.L): Completion of recruitment for at home trial | Sensyne Health (SENS.L): Research agreement with The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust
Companies: Synairgen plc (SNG:LON)Sensyne Health Plc (SENS:LON)
The Panoply has reported a very positive trading update for the Q3 to December and indicates that full year results for the year to March will be significantly ahead of expectations. The group won £15m of new contracts in Q3, including the significant assignment from the Planning Inspectorate announced at the November interims. This further demonstrates the successful development of the group, notably its expansion into healthcare and establishment of FutureGov and Foundry4 as full-service brands. In November we raised our FY21 Revenue and PBT forecasts by +5%/+10% to £44.5m/£4.9m and we further raise by +8% to £48.0m/£5.3m this morning. We choose to leave our FY22 estimates unchanged at this stage, but clearly the group has very strong momentum and we see clear scope to raise our forecasts as we progress through the year. We continue to view The Panoply as ideally placed to benefit from the structural tailwinds in digital transformation and, underpinned by our increased forecasts, raise our target price to 235p (was 220p).
Companies: Panoply Holdings Plc
GB Group (GBG) has sold its marketing services business to HH Global Group for an undisclosed amount. This was not an area of focus for GBG and has been in managed decline for several years. Just before Christmas, GBG boosted its Fraud business with the acquisition of fraud investigation automation software from HooYu for £4m in equity. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the disposal and acquisition, leading to small upgrades to our EPS forecasts. Both deals emphasise the company’s strategy to focus on Identity, Location and Fraud.
Companies: GB Group PLC
FY20E order intake growth of 61% means Corero's revenue for last year of $16.8m will exceed our prior forecast. The trading update confirms c73% annual growth in revenues and further expansion of the annualised recurring revenue base. This performance highlights the increasing prioritisation of protecting networks against cyber and DDoS attacks. Buy.
Companies: Corero Network Security plc
EMIS saw trading gradually improve through H220 to finish the year slightly ahead of expectations. The company continued to support customers in dealing with the pandemic, with the recently acquired Pinnacle Systems’ software now being used in the nationwide vaccination programme. Progress was also made in product development with the launch of the first EMIS-X analytics product. We maintain our forecasts.
Companies: EMIS Group plc
Strong Q4 performance from Audioboom plc, the leading global podcast company, as it continues to outpace the global podcasting market. Audioboom bounced back from the Q2 CV-19 lull in Q3 and growth accelerated in the final quarter. Q4 revenue of c. $8.5m was a record, up 25% on the same period last year and the previous record, and FY20 revenue of c. $26.8m (+20%) was comfortably ahead of forecast (ACLe: $25.5m). There were also record KPI performances (brand count, eCPM and available ad inventory). Coupled with continued cost control, adj. EBITDA loss fell to c. $0.2m in Q4 and c. $1.8m for FY20 (FY19: $2.9m, ACLe: $1.9m). The company has good access to capital ($6.6m at year end) and management expects to achieve a maiden positive adj. EBITDA for FY21. We introduce FY21 forecasts and set a fair value of 420p/share, equivalent to an FY20 EV/Revenue of 3.3x and 2.5x FY21. Although a premium to the current price, this still represents a significant discount to recent industry transaction multiples.
Companies: Audioboom Group PLC
H1A delivered a very resilient performance given the backdrop of halted deliveries and reduced manufacturing capacity. Orders and shipments are resuming and a ramp up in activity levels is expected in H2. A cash outflow in H1A has been supported by new committed facilities and gross cash levels look set to support the business successfully through the second half and beyond.
Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5 million by way of private placement of new Common Shares (the "Fundraising") to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb. Moonpig, the digital greeting card company, is planning an IPO with a potential valuation of £1bln, according to multiple media reports. Further details expected to be announced over the next two weeks.
Companies: ZPHR PANR PRSM SENS CYAN G4M ITX CRCL FEN ZIN
Tern plc* (TERN.L, 7.1p/£23.5m) Portfolio update: Strong business momentum (12.01.21) | Audioboom plc* (BOOM.L, 276p/£43.3m) Expanded content network (15.01.21)
Companies: Tern Plc (TERN:LON)Audioboom Group PLC (BOOM:LON)
The Panoply’s update on trading for the three months ending 31 December 2020 confirms the group has enjoyed a successful third quarter and continues the trend of positive news flow from the group. Against the backdrop of COVID-19 driven macro-economic challenges, The Panoply has reported an acceleration of new business wins. In our view this further validates both the Panoply’s innovative business model and with operations now focussed on two full-stack brands, demonstrates the strategic value of the acquisitions made to date. Management has increased guidance on FY 21E performance, and we take the company’s cue and revise our revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts upwards by 8% and 10% respectively.
Sage Group released a good set of Q1 20/21 figures with organic recurring revenue growth of 4.7% in line with the full-year guidance (+3-5%). This performance was spread out across various cloud native software and essentially driven by the gain of new customers. Lastly, no deterioration in the churn rate is reassuring considering the continuing tough market conditions. All in all, Sage Group confirmed FY2020/21 guidance.
Companies: Sage Group plc