Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Brady. We currently have 58 research reports from 5 professional analysts.
Brady has received a recommended all-cash offer at 10p per share (a 50.8% premium to the closing price), valuing the issued share capital at £8.3m, from Hanover Active Equity Fund II, a private equity (PE) investor focused on SMEs in the UK and Nordic markets. The cash offer has been declared final, will be declared unconditional as to acceptances based on 50% of the share capital and may only be increased if there is a counter-offer. Before the bid, Brady had been looking to secure additional funding for a turnaround strategy, and although negotiations have advanced, the company has not yet secured unconditional funding.
For the purposes of the Takeover Code, Edison Investment Research is deemed to be connected with Brady plc. Under Rule 20.1 Edison must not include any profit forecast, quantified financial benefits statement, asset valuation or estimate of other figures key to the offer, except to the extent that such forecasts, statements, valuations or estimates have been published prior to the offer period (as defined in the Takeover Code) by an offeror or the offeree company (as appropriate) in accordance with the requirements of the Code. Consequently we have removed our estimates until the Offer Period ends.
Following its August trading update highlighting a slowdown in new sales, Brady’s interim results were in line with our expectations. H119 revenue was £9.5m, a 9% fall vs H118, with an EBITDA loss of £1.8m and a PBT loss of £2.5m. Net cash fell to £1.0m from £4.6m at FY18. Recurring revenues represented 82% of total revenues. The new CEO has completed her strategic review and management is focused on delivering a more scalable, predictable and sustainable business to allow the company to become the leading independent E/CTRM vendor. The commodities sector remains attractive and as and when Brady demonstrates renewed sales momentum, it should become a compelling investment, currently trading on an FY19e EV/sales multiple of 1.1x.
With the company expecting FY19 revenues of c £19m, c 22% down on our previous forecasts (£24.3m), new sales have slowed markedly since Brady’s last trading update on 30 May. This represents a perfect storm for Brady with it trying to affect a turnaround in the face of significant market and business uncertainties. We have revised our FY19 forecasts and now anticipate a PBT loss of £4.2m in FY19 (previously £1.0m) with FY19 net cash falling from £2.7m to £1.2m net debt. We have withdrawn our FY20/21 forecasts pending further clarification expected with the interim results on 23 September. However, as a market leader in the attractive E/CTRM space, as and when Brady demonstrates renewed sales momentum it should become an attractive investment on an FY19 EV/sales multiple of 1.5x.
In a brief in-line trading update, Brady has said it has made substantial progress in the first four months of FY19 and the sales pipeline is building. We are maintaining our forecasts. Carmen Carey took on the CEO role in February and we expect the results of her review of the business and new strategy to be outlined with the interims in September. The market opportunity is substantial and we believe Brady is well positioned to benefit from the significant sector consolidation.
Renold plc—a leading international supplier of industrial chains and related power transmission products, announced that it will cancel the listing of the Company from the premium segment and apply for admission on AIM. Expected 06 June 2019. Alumasc Group plc, the premium building products, systems and solutions group, has announced its intention to move from the Premium Segment of the main market to AIM. Expected market cap of £33.4m. Expected 25 June 2019
Companies: VAST AMO PTAL FEN BUR BRY PAT IMMO MPH VLTY
The last two years have seen a significant streamlining of the cost base and a focus on delivering on several significant legacy contracts, which will be completed in FY19. There has also been significant investment in product in FY18 (R&D was 30% of sales). Carmen Carey took on the CEO role in February and management is now looking to exploit the benefits of the streamlining and investment, with an increasing emphasis on new sales. The market opportunity is substantial and we believe Brady is well positioned to benefit from the significant sector consolidation.
FY18 numbers were broadly in line with expectations and we have maintained our forecasts. Management remains confident on the outlook as the group stands to benefit from the streamlining and investment of the last few years. In December, Brady appointed Carmen Carey, currently a Brady non-executive director, as its new CEO. An initial priority for the new CEO will be developing the new sales strategy. The market opportunity is substantial, and we believe Brady is well positioned to benefit from the significant sector consolidation.
Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m. Circassia Pharma (CIR.L) - specialty pharmaceutical company focused on respiratory disease transferring from the Main Market. No funds being raised. Due 4 Feb. Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected late January 2019. Chaarat Gold Holdings—RTO, the Company intends to acquire Kapan Mining and Processing CJSC, which owns the Shahumyan mediumsized polymetallic mine in Kapan in the Republic of Armenia. No raise, market cap of £110.1m, due early Feb
Companies: W7L MRS TOT NET ANP BRY ALSP ARCM CFX
Brady has undergone a significant transition into a leaner, more focused business. Costs have been taken out and the recycling business sold earlier this year as it did not fit well with the business. The main priorities are delivering on legacy contracts while significant resources are being used to refresh the product, with c 25% of FY18 sales expected to be spent on R&D. Consequently near-term ratings remain elevated. However, the market opportunity is substantial and we believe Brady is well positioned to benefit from the significant sector consolidation.
Brady (BRY LN) Solid H1, FY18 in line | StatPro Group (SOG LN) Revenue and TP reduced, but valuation-based buying opportunity
Companies: Brady Statpro Group
In a brief AGM update, Brady said that trading has been in line. Following a period of significant change, with new people hired and the business having been streamlined, the primary focus has shifted to re-engineering the software. The initial outcome of this was shown with the launch of the group’s first FAST START implementation offering in May. We will review our forecasts following tomorrow’s capital markets day. If Brady can successfully transition to the cloud, there is a lot to go for as E/CTRM is an attractive growth industry and Brady has a high-quality customer base.
Brady (BRY LN) Positive AGM statement | EKF Diagnostics (EKF LN) Renalytix AI partnership with Mount Sinai | Itaconix (ITX LN) Operational update to consolidate activities in the US | Photo-Me International (PHTM LN) Saru mo ki kara ochiru Urban&Civic (UANC LN) NNNAV +3.5%, expected to exceed guidance on completions
Companies: BRY EKF ITX PHTM UANC
Brady has completed the reorganisation that followed the 2016 business review. The focus now is on the re-architecture of its products, and the cash boost from the Recycling disposal will help to that effect. The group spent 33% of sales on R&D in FY17, largely to catch up on client obligations, and continued high investment is anticipated as Brady expands its portfolio of microservices. If Brady can successfully transition to the cloud, there is a lot to go for as E/CTRM is an attractive growth industry and Brady has a high-quality customer base.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Brady. We currently have 58 research reports from 5 professional analysts.
|09Dec19 09:17||RNS||Directorate Changes|
|06Dec19 07:00||RNS||Offer Update|
|05Dec19 08:23||RNS||Cancellation from Trading on AIM|
|05Dec19 07:00||RNS||Level of acceptances|
|04Dec19 16:33||RNS||TR-1: Notification of Major Holdings|
|21Nov19 16:45||RNS||Directorate Changes|
Sopheon’s trading update confirms that some of its customers are delaying decisions on contracts because of uncertainty prevailing in their own markets and businesses. At the time of the interim results, Sopheon’s management expected a return to a stronger second half weighting for the full year numbers. That is still the case and the Group continues to highlight the strength of the new business pipeline and a higher proportion of SaaS (Software as a Service) opportunities. Nevertheless, the anticipated signings of a number of opportunities have now slipped into 2020. With revenue visibility currently at $28 million, we conservatively move our current year revenue estimate down 13% to $29 million with a knock-on effect on EBITDA (down 29%). We also assume that buying cycles remain extended during FY 2020E and therefore take a prudent view on our numbers for that year as well with revenue and Adj. EBITDA estimates reducing by 10% and 40% respectively.
The Character Group plc* (CCT.L, 360p/£80.2m) | Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 15p/£42.8m) |Gfinity plc* (GFIN.L, 3.90p/£18.5m)
Companies: CCT BIRD GFIN
Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.
Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP ESRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
Bigblu’s trading statement confirmed an H2 performance in line with expectations. Actions to cleanse the customer base should yield operational benefits over time and the above consensus year-end net debt figure (£14m vs £9m) primarily reflected a Brexit-driven inventory build that should reverse in the next few months. Bigblu remains confident in FY20 consensus (see below), which implies an acceleration in revenue growth.
Companies: Bigblu Broadband
PTY is a brand leader in specialist consulting and strategic recruitment linked to data services. As a leading player in its field, the company is now seizing the opportunity to grow profits by lifting its high-value data service activities as a share of the mix. Recent H1 results reflected the significant transition that PTY is going through, while also heralding better numbers further down the line as the mix moves towards higher value services (also helped by success in removing a net £1.2m costs). Complementary activities directly linked to the core data focus are being developed. So far in this process, the company has seen a bigger reorganisation programme than originally anticipated – but has also highlighted the extra potential that this is generating. The company’s target market of data services is estimated at $10bn-plus and growing rapidly, while early signs from PTY’s change programme indicate the potential for meaningful client acquisition, with new clients such as Compass reflecting the opportunity for the business to scale up substantially. The recent announcement of Heads of Terms reached with a partner, Integumen plc, in delivering intelligent data management systems, is potentially a major step forward (to be finalised by 18/12).
Companies: Parity Group
CentralNic has announced the acquisition of Team Internet for a total consideration of $48m. The acquisition will be financed in part by a further €40m bond issue under identical terms to the €50m issue announced on 23 May 2019. Team Internet operates a ‘domain monetisation’ platform, allowing domain name owners to monetise dormant domains to generate recurring income to offset renewal fees and earn a profit. This provides a complimentary service to existing CNIC services: clients currently pay CentralNic subscription fees to register and renew domain names. Team Internet had revenues of $66.7m in the 12 months to June 2019, with EBITDA of $10.6m. We expect this transaction to have an immaterial impact to 2019E due to timing and be 43.8% accretive to 2020E earnings. Post completion, we estimate net debt:EBITDA will be 2.1x in 2020E falling to 1.6x in 2021E.
Companies: Centralnic Group
We continue to take a selective stance on stocks within the small cap Technology space. The sector’s equity performance was lacklustre over 2019, rising 4% and keeping pace with the All-Share index (relative to multi-year periods of outperformance) as investors took a cautious stance on geopolitical and macro risk. We believe cautious sentiment is likely to dominate trade during the first half of 2020 and maintain our preference for consumeroriented players, consistent with our Arden Thematic Technology framework. Our top picks for 2020 are CDM, EVRH*, SUMO and VNET.
Companies: CALL CDM FDEV KWS SUMO TM17
Pelatro has won a landmark contract with one of the biggest telcos in the world; a major global operator and household name – an outstanding achievement for a small newcomer in the market. After careful deliberation, it has been taken as another recurring revenue/gain-share deal (a fourth this year) rather than a large upfront licence. As Pelatro matures and feels more established, management can afford to take a longer-term view, sacrificing short-term growth and profit for the stability of recurring, incremental revenue streams. A likely $7m of upfront licence has now been foregone in these deals this year and thus FY 2019 revenue guidance is cut to $6.5m (still up 6% YoY). The impact of this pivot to much higher quality revenue should not hide remarkable performance this year. For comparison, had these been taken as licences, FY 2019 sales would have been $13.5m; 28% ahead of our $10.5m forecast set mid-2018, and 121% YoY growth on a comparable basis. That follows 161% and 95% YoY growth in FY 2017 and 2018 respectively. This breakthrough win comes on top of consistently strong sales growth and the increasing quality of earnings, and we reiterate our 125p TP.
Prelims reveal continued progress, particularly within Vicon, where sales grew an impressive 16% y/y, in turn driven by success within both new and existing verticals and so consistent with strategic objectives. Relative to forecasts, sales of £35.4m (+12% y/y) are in line and so too is adj. PBT of £5.5m, following continued investment and also IFRS 15 adoption. We leave forecasts essentially unchanged, believing the drivers for both divisions remain firmly intact and indeed reaffirmed, following an excellent FY’19, particularly in Engineering and ‘Adjacent Verticals’ within Vicon. On valuation, we continue to apply a SOTP methodology, reflecting both Vicon’s industry leading position and cash generative qualities and further, Yotta’s growing ARR in our fair value calculation. This arrives at 108p, implying some 20% upside.
Companies: Oxford Metrics
Interims are in line with the October trading update and unchanged forecasts, with revenue growth +5% to £4.4m, and £5.2m gross cash. The reduction in opex continues to improve profitability, delivering a 1H operating profit for the first time since September 2013, even as contract wins continue from new and existing customers and the customer profile reiterates the quality of the software. Eighteen months after the arrival of CEO Klaas van der Leest, the improved performance has clearly become a trend, and the group’s confidence is expressed in targeted investment to accommodate channel sales and co-ordinate centralised R&D to a clear road map. The horizon for Intercede brightened dramatically at prelims in June when the two-year recovery plan was delivered in a year – now the sun appears to be coming up. 80p target reiterated.
Companies: Intercede Group
With FY19 in line with its targets, Idox is ready to continue the process of shifting to a recurring or SaaS revenue model over the coming years. Today’s trading update points to end Oct run-rate ARR of £38.9m, up 16% organic yoy, with a contracted order book of £12.1m up 29% underpinning the outlook for continued growth. We expect the shift to a cloud-first, SaaS revenue model will both accelerate growth and reduce costs. This makes the forward FCF yield of some 7% noteworthy.
As noted in the trading update, H1 was in line with expectations. It highlighted that this year will be particularly H2-weighted, with £8.8m sales in H1 delivering a small Adj. PBT. The expectation of a record H2 is underpinned by substantial annual contract renewals from licences signed in H2 LY; strong visibility on new contracts due to initiate in H2; and a significant pipeline of new business in negotiation with existing clients who continue to derive substantial benefits from D4t4’s data management solutions. We reiterate our FY forecasts and TP.
Companies: D4T4 Solutions
Indian ride-sharing firm Ola says it has started registering drivers in London as it prepares to launch in the U.K. capital. The company, which is backed by Uber investor SoftBank, said it would look to launch its services in the city "In the coming weeks." The announcement comes just a day after Uber was stripped of its London license by the local transport regulator. London is Uber's largest European market, where it counts 45,000 drivers and 3.5 million passengers.
Companies: TRAK SEE TCM TRCS QTX