Demystifying blockchain: blockchain creates a decentralised, trusted system without individual participants needing to trust each other – In its simplest terms, blockchain is a method to store and manage information in a decentralised and synchronised state. It is fundamentally different to the traditional, centralised structures that we have historically used to create trust in transactions because it does not require the costs of monitoring and enforcing sanctions. Instead, through its use of economic incentives and cryptography, blockchain is able to create a trusted network of trusted and recorded transactions.
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13 Mar 20
Small Cap Feast
Intention to float by Gemfields Group. No Capital Raise. Currently listed on JSE. (GML:JNB) at circa £122m. The Group's key producing assets, the Kagem emerald mine in Zambia (believed to be the world's single largest producing emerald mine) and the Montepuez ruby mine in Mozambique (one of the most significant recently discovered ruby deposits in the world), are both expected to have long mine-lives with potential for expansion. Also owns the Faberge brand. Due Valentines Day 2020.
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10 Feb 20
Deeply undervalued, high growth stock
It’s been a ‘FTSE slug fest’ over the past 3 months. Firstly investors were rattled by US/China trade tensions, then uncertainty about Brexit/General Election, and more recently by conflict in Iran/Iraq and the deadly Coronavirus. The latter sending Chinese equities, travel stocks, crude oil, commodities and many other assets plummeting.
10 Feb 20
Brief lull in financial screening volumes
Underlying demand for ClearStar’s tech-rich background & medical (MIS) screening services remains buoyant, as evidenced by its record orderbook and healthy pipeline – augmented by November’s ebullient US jobs report, where unemployment fell to a 50- year low of 3.5%
17 Dec 19
Morning Note – 17 December 2019
City of London Group (CIN): Corp Ready steady go | ClearStar (CLSU): Corp Trading update | Destiny Pharma (DEST): Corp Asian Pacific guidelines support XF-73 future use | Evgen Pharma (EVG): Corp Interims – cash to Q3 2021 | SDI Group (SDI): Corp Interims on track for strong FY 2020 | Tristel (TSTL): Corp AGM and trading update
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17 Dec 19
Four plays for growth
Summary – In this report we outline the investment case for four companies that we believe have transformative growth potential: Bigblu Broadband, Audioboom, ULS and Beeks. We also include the current sector valuation, our recent research, and a profile of all of the companies covered by the 4-strong Tech Research team at finnCap.
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29 Nov 19
Medical and direct sales continue to drive growth
The US-based provider of Human Capital Integrity technology-based services specialising in background and medical screening has released a strong set of Interim results; adj. EBITDA positive and well set to meet our FY growth forecasts. The ongoing sales growth continues to be driven by medical screening solutions and the provision of background checks to an expanding direct client base in the context of a very healthy US labour market. The strengthened direct sales team has been impressive, but in particular the medical business is offering a widening range of services to ever more customers in ever more industry verticals, utilising an increasing number of labs across the US. On that basis, we are lifting our sales forecast for the year but expect the additional margin to be reinvested to drive further growth in a buoyant market. We reiterate our 90p target, a 42% upside.
19 Sep 19
Clinically proven to deliver faster growth
Recruiting skilled, trustworthy and committed staff is a tricky & often cumbersome process, especially in today’s tight US labour market (3.7% unemployment). Get it wrong, and capable candidates go to rivals. Equally hiring poor employees can damage an organisation’s results, brand & culture. No more so than in the regulated areas of healthcare, transport, petro-chemicals, defence, logistics, education and financial services.
18 Sep 19
Morning Note – 18 September 2019
Avingtrans (AVG): Corp FY results slightly ahead, good margin gains achieved | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR): Corp Lixus licence additional prospects | ClearStar (CLSU): Corp Medical and direct sales continue to drive strong growth | Europa Oil & Gas (EOG): Corp Moroccan acreage award | Iofina (IOF): Corp IO#8 iodine plant launched | Quixant (QXT): Corp Market share loss at key customers will leave H2 short | Zambeef (ZAM): Corp Disposal of a farm yields US$9.25m cash | ZOO Digital (ZOO): Corp AGM statement
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18 Sep 19
Another blockbuster month in July
If you’re concerned about Brexit, Sterling’s devaluation, currency wars and/or the slowing global economy, then look no further than Uncle’s Sam’s backyard. To us, America remains the ‘destination of choice’ for many investors, given its resilient consumer (>70% GDP), low unemployment (3.7%), solid GDP (2.1% Q2’19) and muted inflation (CPI 2.1%). The only problem is finding the right companies to buy at attractive levels. Step forward ClearStar, a tech-enabled background & medical (MIS) screening expert, based in Atlanta (Georgia), serving almost exclusively the US domestic market (c. 95% sales).
08 Aug 19
Small Cap Feast
ReAssure Group plc - The Group is a leading closed book life insurance consolidator in the United Kingdom with 4.3m policies, £68.7 billion of assets under administration on a Post-L&G Illustrative Basis. It is considering a premium listing segment of the main market. Voyager AIR The Com pany w ill focus on the acquisition, leasing and m anagement of prim arily widebody aircraft, w ith asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited he IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m· Uniphar, a diversified healthcare services business w ith a workforce of over 2,000, is looking to join AIM. Raise TBC, expected mid-July 2019
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09 Jul 19
Organic growth is accelerating, and quickly
There are few principles in life that work consistently through ‘thick and thin’. One of the most important (& usually hardest to find) for investors is purchasing ‘quality growth stocks at attractive prices’. Enter ClearStar, who this morning (ahead of its AGM) said that LFL sales had climbed 14% in the first 5 months of 2019.
18 Jun 19
Morning Note – 18 June 2019
Castleton Technology (CTP): Corp Prelims | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR): Corp Anchois development technically feasible | ClearStar (CLSU): Corp AGM told that strong H1 growth is on track for FY | Frontier Developments (FDEV): Corp Strong H2 sees upgraded forecasts | K3 Business Technology (KBT): Corp Trading update | Pelatro (PTRO): Corp Major contract win in Asia underpins forecasts
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18 Jun 19
How to buy $1 bills for less than 25 cents
Tech firms are often faced with trade-offs. Take Amazon, who for years prioritised growth ahead of profitability in order to build dominant positions in online retail, cloud services and voice-search (re Alexa/Echo). Likewise, we think ClearStar is adopting a similar long term strategy to create shareholder value. Sure if it decided to switch off the ‘expansion button’ today, then earnings would immediately flow through. However, what we’re talking about here is a much bigger opportunity – disrupting an addressable market worth c. $4bn pa.
13 May 19
Happy customers beget happy investors
World class companies have one thing in common. They are all totally committed about delighting their customers. Knowing that this can create a powerful feedback loop, and likewise trigger more client wins, higher hit rates, positive referrals and follow-on work. Today we saw this virtuous circle in action again at ClearStar, a specialist in background & medical screening solutions. Announcing that it had secured a new 3 month $350,000 contract. Both extending and expanding the services it already provides to a relatively new professional services client within the financial services space.
29 Apr 19
Morning Note – 29 April 2019
Allergy Therapeutics (AGY): Corp Regulatory and trading update | ClearStar (CLSU): Corp Financial services client expands contract again | Europa Oil & Gas (EOG): Corp Wressle appeal date set | Lok'nStore (LOK): Corp Exciting pipeline of new landmark stores | Nasstar (NASA): Corp Prelims – showing the sector how to do it | Proactis (PHD): Corp Interims and strategic update | SimiGon (SIM): Corp FY 2018 shows recovery but SaaS transition continues
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29 Apr 19
Double digit growth continues into Q1’19
Long term value creation is all about customer focus, profitable growth and 1 st class execution. Concentrating on what clients want today and in the future - and doing it better than anyone else. We think that Clearstar, a technology-rich background employment and medical (MIS) screening provider, has this in spades. Saying this morning, that its strong growth in 2018 (+13% to $20.1m) had continued into Q1’19 - posting record turnover, up 11% LFL to $5.1m ($4.6m LY).
10 Apr 19
Morning Note – 10 April 2019
Altitude Group (ALT): Corp Update | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR): Corp Cost controls and efficient drilling drives cash beat | ClearStar (CLSU): Corp A strong Q1 leaves ClearStar on track for FY 2019 | Frenkel Topping (FEN): Corp A welcome recovery now provides a stable springboard | SRT Marine Systems (SRT): Corp FY 2019 confirmed as a pivotal year | Tracsis (TRCS): Corp On track at interims
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10 Apr 19
Small Cap Feast
Circassia Pharma (CIR.L) - specialty pharmaceutical company focused on respiratory disease transferring from the Main Market. No funds being raised. Due 4 Feb. Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected late January 2019. Chaarat Gold Holdings—RTO, the Company intends to acquire Kapan Mining and Processing CJSC, which owns the Shahumyan mediumsized polymetallic mine in Kapan in the Republic of Armenia. No raise, market cap of £110.1m, due early Feb
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23 Jan 19
2 new contracts totalling >$1m of revenues
10 years on from the $600bn Lehman Bros bankruptcy and subsequent financial crisis, regulators have been busily cleaning up the industry in order to prevent it from ever happening again. Tougher laws have been introduced, fraudulent employees imprisoned and new staff probity checks introduced. Indeed, only last Friday the UK Government announced it had deported Kweku Adoboli, a former UBS trader who was convicted of a £1.4bn fraud between 2008–11.
20 Nov 18
Small Cap Feast
Kropz, an emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa, a phosphate project in the Republic of Congo and exploration assets in Ghana, is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected late Nov Titon holdings—international manufacturer and supplier of ventilation systems and window and door hardware. No capital raise. Due 10 Dec. Mkt cap c.£22m. Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD Finncap—proposed acquisition of M&A adviser Cavendish Corporate Finance and AIM admission. Offer TBA. Due early Dec Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is investigating the possibility of AIM admission. The Company is proposing to raise up to £2.25 million before the end of December, conditional on Admission. The Panoply parent company of a digitally native technology services group founded in 2016 with the aim of identifying and acquiring best-of-breed specialist information technology and innovation consulting businesses across Europe, is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected late November 2018.
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20 Nov 18
Exciting new channel partner
Often the best ideas are the simplest. Take the humble employee ID and/or visitor card. There are probably 10s if not 100s of millions of these dished out globally each year to new recruits, temporary workers, contractors, visitors, etc. Not only costing a small fortune to produce, but also needlessly sucking in vital resource, slowing up the onboarding process and damaging the environmental (re plastic).
16 Oct 18
Valuation raised due to accelerating growth
Occasionally analysts can be guilty of over complicating matters. Strip out the jargon however, and often even the most complex of businesses can be distilled into four simple questions. Are revenues growing faster than costs? Will this be maintained in the long run? Is management investing enough to stay ahead of the game? And finally, how much are the shares worth compared to the current price? For ClearStar - a tech-pioneer in the $4bn global job screening (60% H1 sales) and medical (MIS 40%) testing market - we unequivocally got the thumbs-up again from this morning’s very encouraging H1’18 results.
17 Sep 18
Medical business delivers positive EBITDA in H1
ClearStar is a leading provider of background-check technology, strategic continues to see good growth from its Direct business and in particular from its Florida-based medical screening operation (MIS), offsetting a deliberate cut in sales into channels. Interims show 11% YoY revenue growth, on track for our FY 2018 target; however, the medical business has lower margins than background screening software, and with a growing proportion of MIS revenue in the mix, we are easing back our FY EBITDA expectation, although we still anticipate positive EBITDA in H2 up from just over breakeven in H1. Good working capital control has left the net cash position unchanged over the half at $1.2m and we continue to expect this to see the company through to future profit and cash generation.
17 Sep 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Green Man Gaming—pure play e-commerce and technology company in the digital video games industry. revenue CAGR growth of 26.7% in the last three years to £47.5m. Due 28 Sep. EBITDA Profitable. Offer TBA Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is exploring its options in relation to a potential move to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange which, if it were to proceed, would likely take place over the next few months. Path Investments (PATH) -RTO of a 50 per cent. participating interest in the producing Alfeld-Elze II gas field located 22 kilometres south of Hannover in Germany. Seeking £10m. Offer TBA. Due Mid September Kropz PLC-Intention to float by the emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa and exploration assets in West Africa
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17 Sep 18
Morning Note – 17 September 2018
ClearStar (CLSU): Corp Medical business delivers positive EBITDA in H1 | M.P. Evans (MPE): Corp Plantations performing to plan in H1 | Surface Transforms (SCE): Corp Expecting a transformative year | Tri-Star Resources (TSTR): Corp Interim results
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17 Sep 18
Record revenues and positive EBITDA
UK investors are in a dilemma. BREXIT concerns, trade tensions and fears over another general election are all weighing on business confidence and pressurising the £. So where’s a good place to put one’s money? For myself, I’ve followed the advice of famous author & newspaper editor Horace Greeley to “go West, young man”. Allocating a sizable chunk of my own funds to America.
18 Jul 18
Small Cap Breakfast
RA International is a leading provider of services to remote locations in Africa and the Middle East looking to join AIM raising £18.8m and 56p, market cap of £97.2m. Expected 29 June Cake Box Holdings—franchise retailer of cakes with a growing store base across the UK looking to join AIM, Offer tbc, expected late June Mind Gym. Behavioural science business that uses scalable proprietary products to deliver human capital and business improvement solutions to large corporations. Offer TBA. Due 28 June i-nexus—develops and provides strategy execution software to assist global enterprises in effective execution of their strategic plans and initiatives looking to jon AIM. Offer raising £10m at 79p, market cap of £23.36m, expected 21 June Yellow Cake will use its expertise to generate value through the ownership of physical U3O8 (Uranium) together with a range of activities and opportunities connected with owning physical U3O8. Acquiring supply contract for up to $170m. Offer TBA. Knights Group— UK regional legal and professional services businesses. FYApr18 rev £34.9m and adjusted operating profit was £6.8m excluding Turner Parkinson (acquiring on IPO). Offer TBA, expected 29 June. TransGlobe Energy Corporation—an independent international upstream oil and gas company with headquarters in Calgary, Canada is looking to join AIM. No Capital to be raised, market cap of £131m. Expected 29 June Strongbow Exploration (TSX:SBW) intends to dual list on AIM. Holds rights to the South Crofty underground tin mine, a former producing tin mine located in the towns of Pool and Camborne, Cornwall . The project is estimated to require the Company to raise £25 million over the next 18 months to progress to a production decision. Offer TBS. Due June.
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20 Jun 18
Valuation rises to 95p/share
How do you decide which equities to buy? Many people rely on the ‘comfort of the crowd’. Preferring to follow what others do to steer them through the markets. Like passive index trackers, this is fine up to a point, say when investing in highly liquid FTSE100 companies. But what about microcaps, where daily trading volumes can be much thinner, and the ‘crowd’ may not exist? Here instead, active fund managers typically focus on the fundamentals and back their own judgement to guide decision-making.
22 May 18
FY 2018 is on track with new clients onboarding
The AGM heard that FY 2017 had seen another year of growth, driven by increased demand for the background and medical checking products and solutions, both direct and through the traditional channel partners. It also laid the foundations for accelerating that growth through enhanced sales and marketing efforts and integration with SAP’s SuccessFactors Recruiting solution, seen as a significant new route-to-market for direct services. Looking ahead, management feels FY 2018 is going to be a pivotal year for ClearStar as revenue growth delivers positive EBITDA, in line with our expectations, after several years of losses. We reiterate our forecasts and 60p TP, offering significant upside to investors.
22 May 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Urban Exposure, a newly formed company which been established to pursue two main strategies in the residential development finance market - asset management of development finance loans and direct lending into development finance loans, looking to join AIM. Offer raising £150m at £1, market cap of £165m, expected 9 May 2018 Rosenblatt Group -specialist litigation and contentious restructuring law firm established in 1989 based in the City of London. Offer TBC. Due 8 May. Supreme, a leading manufacturer and supplier of branded consumer batteries, a manufacturer and supplier of branded and licensed consumer lighting and a leading manufacturer and supplier of vaping products in the United Kingdom, is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected early May 2018 Serinus Energy -international upstream oil and gas exploration and production company. Its principal assets are located in Romania (development phase) and Tunisia (production phase). Raising c.£10m. Offer TBA. Due mid May.
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02 May 18
Quality stock at a rock-bottom price
Warren Buffett, the ‘Sage of Omaha’, has spoken many wise words during his accomplished career. Not least that “markets can stay irrational for far longer” than one might expect - yet ultimately they’re “weighing machines”, so value wins out in the end.
17 Apr 18
Going direct for growth
The Atlanta-based technology and service provider to the global background checking industry has delivered double-digit sales growth in FY 2017 driven by the long-term shift from channel to direct sales into large clients, and the continuing success of the medical screening division. That revenue growth had limited impact on the bottom line this year as gross margin slipped on the business mix and ClearStar invested in sales and marketing of the broadened offering while capitalising less of the R&D. However, costs should flatten out this year to deliver positive EBITDA. We reiterate our 2018 forecasts and target price.
17 Apr 18
Medical and direct sales powering growth
Despite the unwelcome impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in its backyard states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Texas, ClearStar nonetheless reported impressive 2017 trading yesterday. Bang in line with our pre-storm estimates (from July), with revenues up 11% LFL (split 12% H1: 10% H2) to $17.8m (vs $16.0m LY) and net cash closing December at $1m (vs $1.5m June and $2.25m LY). Growth being driven by buoyant demand for direct screening (+21%) and medical/drug testing (+20%) services. The latter now (including channel partners) accounting for 38% (35% LY) of revenues, with the former equally set to climb from 24% in 2016 to >50% by 2024.
11 Jan 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Cradle Arc—holding company of a group of companies focused on the exploration and development of precious and base metals projects in Africa. Offer raising £2.4m with market cap of £20.13m. Expected late Jan 2018 Volex VLX.L—The global provider of cable assemblies is proposing to move from the main market to AIM on 19 January. £75m market cap. FYMar18E rev £241.5m and £7.19m PBT. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
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10 Jan 18
12% LFL growth driving record H1 sales
Trying to guess where the FTSE will be in 6-12 months is a bit of a crapshoot. Not so for ClearStar, where circa 90% of turnover relates to ‘repeat’ everyday background/employment and drug/alcohol screening tests (run-rate >8m pa). Better still, retention is an impressive 90% - which when added to the natural flow through of recently signed deals, the ‘on-boarding’ of existing clients, and today’s ‘bang in line’ interims – means there is >95% and >85% respectively of revenue cover for this year ($17.8m) and next ($19.8m).
19 Sep 17
Record H1 driven by direct sales and medical business
A strong H1 trading performance gives us increased confidence in our FY expectations. We have considered a slight upgrade to expectations; however, uncertainty over the impact of the recent high profile storms in the company’s South-Western US region leads us to be prudent at this stage. Overall, ClearStar continues to trade just below breakeven at an EBITDA level, while steadily building revenue from a move to direct sales, particularly in the medical market. Future growth will be assisted by the on-boarding of major new clients such as IntelliCentrics and MultiLatin, as well as the new global employment screening solution built around the Sphere platform and the new biometric services.
19 Sep 17
Keywords Studios (KWS): Ticking every box (except valuation) (HOLD) | OptiBiotix* (OPTI): SlimBiome commercial update (CORP) | Surface Transforms* (SCE): Steady progress (CORP) | Gem Diamonds (GEMD): Recovery of high quality 115 carat diamond (BUY) | ClearStar* (CLSU): Record H1 driven by direct sales and medical business (CORP)
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19 Sep 17
Booming ‘gig’ economy driving growth
Don’t you just love ‘Tech’? Churning out irresistible growth rates, profit margins and cashflows, allied to robust visibility and high client retention. A compelling mix. The only problem is that many others do as well, pushing valuations to often nose-bleed levels.
12 Jul 17
Building a background for growth
The prelims are largely as expected, with exceptional 77% organic sales growth in Direct Services offset by attrition of the clients and revenues bought with SingleSource to leave that business flat YoY. Slower growth in channel and CRA operation saw group revenue rise 3% overall while the cost base was controlled to see a reduced loss while the business prepares for much stronger performances in the years ahead. Without the headwind of SingleSource and with a strengthened sales team, the direct services business should power better company revenue growth this year, augmented by the new ‘Sphere’ global platform, which has already started to contribute. With a streamlined operation, plenty of cash, an improving employment market and a new employee-screening partnership with IntelliCentrics, ClearStar is well positioned to deliver long-term success.
28 Mar 17
Small Cap Breakfast
Path Investments—Publication of prospectus from the Energy Investment Company. Raising £1.4m. Admission due on or around 30 March | Franchise Brands—Schedule 1 detailing £28m reverse takeover of Metro Rod. Admission expected 11 April | Alpha FX Group— Schedule 1 from the foreign exchange provider focused on managing exchange rate risk for UK corporates that trade internationally. Fundraise TBC. Admission expected 7 April. | K3 | Capital Group—Schedule 1 from the Group of business and company sales specialists across business transfer, business brokerage and corporate finance. Admission date and fundraise details TBC. | Integumen— Schedule 1 from the personal health company developing and commercialising technology and products for the human integumentary system. Raising £2.16m at 5p. Expected market cap £8.16m. Admission expected 5 April. Tufton | Oceanic Assets– Offer extended to 9 May to enable investors to complete further due diligence.
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28 Mar 17
We initiate coverage on a long-established, well-managed and well-funded US company in the steadily growing global background-screening market. ClearStar is taking advantage of a highly competitive technology platform, an impressive existing customer base and excellent long-term prospects. It has traditionally supplied its solutions and services through channel partnerships, which see large volumes and high levels of recurring revenues. However, it has been investing in developing a direct business which offers higher growth and improved gross margin, through an opportune direct service acquisition in late 2014, augmented with additional sales and support investment. The interims show the original (pre-acquisition) direct business has doubled YoY as a result, improving margins and pushing the company towards profitability. Furthermore, since 2014 it has been developing a global platform which will allow it to reach beyond its current US market. Post the 2014 IPO, results were impaired by the unexpected acquisition and investment in new products so the shares have drifted to a point where there is significant value for new investors. Comparable market peers currently trade on an average EV/Sales multiple of 2.2x; even discounting this by 25% derives a 60p target price, more than 40% uplift on the current valuation.
27 Sep 16
Victoria* (VCP): May the floors be with you (CORP) | ClearStar* (CLSU): Screening Buy (CORP) | Avingtrans^ (AVG): FY results – at the fulcrum of change (BUY) | Netcall* (NET): Prelims show strategic progress (CORP) | Alternative Networks* (AN.): Year-end trading update (CORP) | Universe* (UNG): Project delays break up party (CORP)
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27 Sep 16
The Cybersecurity Rebellion: “No, I’m Spartacus!”
Steve “Woz” Wozniak, infamous co-founder of Apple, was the latest culprit to send shivers across the tech world by claiming Cybersecurity is the greatest threat the world has faced since the atom bomb. Mr Wozniak was alluding to the heightened sense of fear that recent high profile breaches have caused Cybersecurity to be put at the forefront of political, corporate and now it would appear, investor agendas. As the topic gains increasing awareness, it gives rise to a number of companies claiming to be a “thought leader” in the Cybersecurity space, holding the best IP and the best routes to market. With many companies singing from the same loss making hymn sheet it is making it ever difficult to spot the true “Spartacus” from the crowd.
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07 Jun 16
Check this out
ClearStar is a well established tech platform and service provider to the background check industry with circa 2,300 generally very sticky customers. In fact ClearStar now serves over 27,000 employees annually and has over a 90% retention rate. The company is vying for profitability through both the execution of a targetted growth strategy and the search for further internal efficiencies. During 2016 the company expects to recognise circa $1.2m of annualised cost savings.
05 Nov 15