The FY19A results show both very strong growth in recurring revenues. These recurring revenues now form a substantial majority of Group sales. This transition in the business model reduces reliance on lumpy hardware sales and helps de-risk the investment. The macro environment lends caution but Corero is in its best shape for years.
Companies: Corero Network Security
Significant DDPaaS contract wins in FY19E meant that while there was a revenue shortfall versus our target, underlying cash generation was better than would otherwise have been expected. The stock is trading on around 3.5x recurring revenues which is a low multiple for the sector.
Intention to float by Gemfields Group. No Capital Raise. Currently listed on JSE. (GML:JNB) at circa £122m. The Group's key producing assets, the Kagem emerald mine in Zambia (believed to be the world's single largest producing emerald mine) and the Montepuez ruby mine in Mozambique (one of the most significant recently discovered ruby deposits in the world), are both expected to have long mine-lives with potential for expansion. Also owns the Faberge brand. Due Valentines Day 2020.
Companies: PEN EAI SENS LPA PRM HDD BRD IGR CNC CNS
The Pebble Group, a provider of products, services and technology to the global promotional products industry, announces its intention to seek admission of its shares to trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange, which is expected to take place in early December 2019.The Group delivered revenue of £99.8m in the year ended 31 December 2018.No mention of bottom line and a suggestion that funds raised would provide an exit to private equity shareholders and the repayment of debt. Offer TBA. Longboat Energy raising £10m. Expected admission November 2019. The company has been established by the former management team of Faroe Petroleum to create a new full-cycle North Sea oil and gas company .The strategy to achieve this will initially be through the acquisition of assets where the management team can add value through subsurface and operational improvements, follow-up deal opportunities and nearfield exploration; and by value creation through the drill bit. Sapo PLC - Seeks to invest in the developing market for rural broadband in the UK. Due 2 Dec. Taseko Mines - North American focused copper producer and developer, seeking a London Listing. No capital raise. Due 22 Dec SDIC Power - “potential intention to float”. Proposed GDR listing. Leading power generation company in China, with a diversified portfolio of projects across hydropower, coal-fired power, wind power and solar power. Offer TBA. Octopus Renewables - Seeking raise of up to £250m. Will seek to provide investors with an attractive and sustainable level of income returns, with an element of capital growth by investing in a geographically and technologically diversified spread of renewable energy assets—Due 10 Dec
Companies: SPO WAND CNS IDOX IGP BRCK LTHM CBOX NQMI SAV
Netflix is raising another US$2 billion in debt to fund additional content creation and other expenses, the company announced on Monday. The company routinely raises debt to help fuel its growing library of original TV shows and movies. The streaming giant offered US$2 billion in new debt in April after issuing another round of notes several months earlier. Netflix said it plans to use the proceeds to fund "Content acquisitions, production and development, capital expenditures, investments, working capital and potential acquisitions and strategic transactions.". We’re unsurprised and anticipate the competition will also up their game to capture market share – all the better for the localisation market.
Companies: 7DIG KAPE ZOO AMO AVST CNS DFX ECSC FLX IGP NCC OSI MIRA
Weakness in converting Juniper related business into revenue has recently led to a weaker YoY revenue performance in H1A. However, a strong pipeline and the confidence to rebuild the sales team in North America augur well. Overheads will consequently tick up in H2E but these additional costs going into next year should be covered by a planned fund raise in H2E.
Cloudflare, a California-based digital content delivery and Internet security company, raised its IPO price range this morning from a prior $10 to $12 interval to $12 to $14 per share. At its new prices, Cloudflare would be valued between $3.5 billion and $4.1 billion. Cloudflare's maximum IPO fund raise is now $563.5 million. Investors’ appetite for cloud offerings appears to remain robust. Ex- Oculus founder, Palmer Luckey’s new business, Anduril Industries, is building a virtual wall on the southern border of the US. His new venture is being valued at more than $1 billion in a new fundraising round, according to sources. Anduril describes itself as a company that "Invents and builds technology to secure America and its interests.". Virtual border controls feel like a natural evolution of physical barriers for a digital era. The Tokyo Game Show, Japan’s video gaming mega-conference, opened on Thursday with enthusiasts testing how ultra-high-speed 5G mobile data networks will impact the gaming experience ahead of the technology's commercial rollout in Japan in 2020. Game makers, related network developers, and esports promoters cite expect to benefit from nextgeneration wireless networks that are expected to allow players of increasingly popular online games to utilize faster downloads and smoother connections. 5G’s influence is only beginning to rise as coverage is rolled out.
Companies: CDM FDEV KAPE KWS SUMO TM17 AVST BIDS CNS DFX ECSC FLX GFIN IGP NCC OSI SOPH
Alan Howard’s push into crypto is a badly kept secret that appears to be crystallising into reality. In our view, the crypto space has undergone a very interesting transition from rampant retail speculation to, well, rampant retail speculation underpinned by a broad base of institutional interest. Google search volumes have fallen, transaction sizes appear to be escalating and the latest wave of equipment upgrades suggest consumer interest and potential to participate is now very low. Meanwhile, increased macro risk, currency controls and privacy concerns may be fuelling increased interest. We await further signs of whether we are at a turning point or whether this is (another) flash in the pan. Apple’s woes appear to be mounting as the group undergoes a difficult transition from a lifetime of focus on aesthetically pleasing hardware with a highly refined user experience, to a services focus. On one hand, the group’s key product the iPhone (which accounted for most revenues until very recently) is rapidly entering commoditised territory. Consumers have the option of a powerful and near fully-featured £160 generic Android handset or a cutting-edge iPhone for £1,000; for many, the choice is a simple one. The supply chain woes of having massive exposure to China in the context of the US-China trade war is also likely to weigh heavily on short term strategy. On the other hand, the group’s services are consumer focused and face strong competition from the likes of Amazon, Spotify, Microsoft and Netflix. If the thesis was to build the services on a firm foundation of the Apple hardware base, the cracks in security are worrying.
Companies: KAPE ARB AVST CNS DFX ECSC FLX IGP MMX NCC OSI SOPH TECH TEK
VMware said on Thursday it bought two providers of cloud security and cloud developer services in separate deals valued at about $5 billion, as it expands offerings for corporate clients. VMware bought Pivotal Software Inc in a $2.7 billion deal. Separately, VMware said it would buy software maker Carbon Black Inc for about $2 billion in cash.
Companies: CALL KAPE AVST CNS DFX ECK ECSC FLX IGP LOOP NCC NET OSI SOPH
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The FY 2020 results are in line with our expectations and reflect the impact of the previously announced switch from large perpetual licences to recurring annual term licences during the year. Despite the COVID strictures, with its large global partnerships, D4t4 continues to close numerous lucrative data gathering and data management contracts with major blue-chips around the world. It is successfully converting a high proportion of its new sales to recurring revenue contracts, but this will sacrifice growth and earnings in FY 2020 and FY 2021. Nevertheless, with growing recurring revenue base, an exciting pipeline and a very strong balance sheet, D4t4 is very well positioned for continued long-term growth and security.
Companies: D4T4 Solutions
The ‘Moving Forward Act', the strongest automotive safety bill in decades, has now been passed in the House of Representatives. The bill is focused on advancing safety technologies proven to reduce crash and harm and to make sure strong safety standards are in place to save lives. The bill, which now needs to be passed in the Senate, will mandate automatic braking, lane-keeping, blind-spot detection, event data recorders as well as DMS in all cars and trucks sold in the US from 2024. This aligns with the European General Safety Regulation, which passed into law in November 2019.
However, in the EU, the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA) has requested a 2‐year delay for the introduction of the 2022 Euro-NCAP protocols due to the projected lengthy time that will be needed to recover from the effects of COVID-19. Euro NCAP has agreed, and a delay is now expected to the 2022 and 2024 rating. The new dates will give automakers and Tier 1 suppliers more time to incorporate the necessary changes given the events of recent months with a number of manufacturers announcing 12 month delays to new models.
Companies: Seeing Machines
GB Group reported strong performance in FY20 and started taking measures to preserve cash in Q420. Trading in Q121 has been mixed and while management is unwilling to provide guidance for FY21, it has confidence that in the longer term it is well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in digital transformation that should drive demand for its identity data intelligence services. We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.
Companies: GB Group
CentralNic’s capital markets day (CMD) on 24 June 2020 introduced the divisional management team and provided insight on each of the three key segments as they will report in FY20: Indirect (Wholesale, Registry); Monetisation (Team Internet); and Direct (Retail, Corporate). We have picked out what we believe are the four key themes from the CMD: FY20 performance, COVID-19 and seasonality; organic growth; M&A; and, pulling it all together, the benefit of scale. CentralNic continues to trade on an FY20 EV/EBITDA of 9.1x and a P/E of 15.8x, a material discount to its peer group, with our DCF indicating further share price upside. M&A could bring CentralNic’s multiples down further.
Companies: Centralnic Group
Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has provided a trading update to coincide with its AGM.
Encouragingly, the business continues to perform in line with the trends seen at the time of the full year results in May and the Board anticipates Touchstar will be profitable in the six months to 30 June. Cash generation is again reported to have been good, with ‘significantly higher cash balances' expected to be reported than at the beginning of the year (FY 2019A £850k). The group has drawdown a CBIL of £150,000, which provides additional liquidity alongside its undrawn banking facilities of £300,000. Looking ahead, the order book is a more normal level than last reported at over £500,000 at the end of June, which compares to an exceptionally strong £1.2m at the beginning of the year.
FY20 results: inline with guidance
ECSC Group plc* (ECSC.L, 71.5p/£7.2m) | Trackwise Designs plc (TWD.L, 90.5p/£20.0m) | Transense Technologies plc (TRT.L, 59.5p/£9.7m)
Companies: ECSC Group Trackwise Designs
LoopUp has provided an update on trading to coincide with today’s AGM…in essence, the group continues to see activity “materially” above pre-COVID levels, and is confident of exceeding expectations for 2020. We choose to leave our forecasts (that we believe to be roughly in line with consensus estimates) unchanged for now, in advance of further detail likely with a fuller H1 update in early July.
Companies: Loopup Group
CentralNic's CMD gave us new positive insights into the company's investment case. CentralNic's organic growth is stronger than we thought, the Direct division generates high ROI, the monetisation market was shown to be critical to the domain name market, Team Internet's market leadership was further reinforced and acquisition opportunities were shown to be larger than anticipated. These investment views are not reflected in CentralNic's low valuation multiples, in our view.
Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 19.25p/£64.7m) | Mirada plc* (MIRA.L, 92.5p/£8.2m) | Tern plc* (TERN.L, 10.75p/£29.0m) | Checkit plc (CKT.L, 39.5p/£24.5m)
Companies: BIRD MIRA MIRA TERN CKT
Gresham continues to show strong progress in difficult times. 18% yoy organic growth in Clareti ARR is amongst the fastest growth of any UK software company. It is being achieved because Gresham has built a disruptive product that is now replacing incumbents at Tier 1 financial institutions around the world. These results underpin our FY20 EBITDA expectations. The implied valuation of Clareti’s ARR is <6x revs, which we think offers value for an emerging leader.
Companies: Gresham Technologies
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI
Following the announcement of a business restructure and temporary cost reduction measures to reduce costs by A$12m, we have updated our forecasts for Seeing Machines. We believe that the significant measures taken by the management offset a weaker revenue outlook, as the impact of COVID-19 looks likely to continue for longer than anticipated. The net result is a similar to previous expectations in terms of cash, which we believe remains sufficient to see the company through FY22 ahead of profitability in FY23. The long-term effects of the business restructure is expected to be positive for shareholder value as demonstrated by our DCF based valuation which increases to 7.2p (from 7.0p).
The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.
Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO