Delays in closing contracts in the core business resulted in a revenue shortfall for eServGlobal in FY17, although some of these have now been signed and will contribute from FY18. Continued efforts to reduce the cost base should reduce the break-even revenue level to c €12.5m/A$19min FY18, which the company is aiming to achieve through focusing on additional sales to its existing customer base. eServGlobal participated in the recent HomeSend funding round, marginally increasing its stake to 35.7%.
eServGlobal expects to report FY17 (14 months to 31 December 2017) revenues of €8.3-8.5m/A$12.1-12.4m, below its guidance range of €9.7-11m. This was due to some of the contracts expected to sign in Q417 actually being signed in January. These contracts are worth €3m/A$4.6m over three years. The company is making progress in cutting its cost base: it expects to enter FY18 with an annualised cost base of €12.8m/A$19.6m and hopes to reduce this to €12-12.5m/A$18.4-19.1m through the course of the year.
We have reflected the results for the 12 months to 31 October 2017 (12M17) as well as the trading update for FY17. We have reduced our revenue forecast for FY17 from A$15.2m to A$12.2m and increased our adjusted EBITDA loss forecast from A$7.6m to A$13.1m. We forecast a net cash position of A$9.7m at the end of FY17, which takes into account the €3.89m recently invested in HomeSend.
Since the HomeSend update and the fund-raising in October, the share price has traded in the range of 10.25-13.15p. With funding concerns removed, we believe the market is now starting to factor the banking opportunity into the valuation of eServGlobal’s stake in HomeSend. Evidence of progress in the banking sector for HomeSend (new agreements as well as recently signed banks transitioning volumes to the platform) and pipeline conversion in the core business could support further upside to the share price. Conversely, weaker performance in the core business or slower execution for HomeSend could weigh on the share price.