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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on FIDESSA GROUP PLC. We currently have 28 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
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FIDESSA GROUP PLC
FIDESSA GROUP PLC
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
The Joy of Techs
15 Aug 16
Mobile money has been an awkward area for investors and industry alike. There have been too many new arrivals offering too many new solutions, leading to a confusing plethora of payment methods for both consumers and retailers, championed by varying stakeholders: banks, credit card suppliers or mobile network operators (MNOs). In this, the mobile money industry has ignored the key element of currency – that it is universally recognised and accepted. The confusion of competing payment methods inevitably led to numerous failures. The industry has promised much: a total technological revamping of the monetary systems in place since ancient times, in a short space of time, but has delivered little to date. However, that is not to say changes aren’t happening.
Panmure Morning Note 01-08-2016
01 Aug 16
Interim results headline with 15% growth in operating profit and news of growth in all geographies. Clearly the macro has not changed – ie consolidations and closures amongst the customer base and delays in the regulatory backdrop – but nonetheless the results indicate good execution by Fidessa. To reflect the results and currency (63% of revenue accounted for outside of Europe). We have increased FY forecasts EPS to 88.5p from 83.7p. Whilst the valuation is too rich for us on an earnings basis (PE 27.6, EV/EBITDA 11.6x) the share has ‘yield’ support (Div 3.6%) and that will keep shareholders cheered. We are in line with company guidance. The shares are for fans who believe (rightly) in keeping your winners – remember, Fidessa has a strong balance sheet, strong cash generation and substantial levels of recurring revenue. We retain our Hold. Increase target price to 2132p (1758p).
“I don’t hear any music.”
29 Jul 16
So replied the violinist Fritz Kreisler to the lady who said “your violin makes such beautiful music.” And so we learn that the instrument (ie the hardware) is of no use whatsoever without the human element. This week we saw Sage debut a rack of new products at SageSummit, there was the US$9.3bn Netsuite acquisition by Oracle, which in the wake of ARM plc acquisition pushed share prices up as M&A thoughts drove thinking. We frame all of these moves relative to our SMAC stack scenario. However our Compliance Officer David Langshaw (off to read for an MSc in History of Science, Medicine and Technology at Kellogg College, Oxford - whatever) tells me that I have missed the essential truth – namely Kranzberg’s Six Laws of Technology. Kranzberg’s core message is, ‘Technology merely presents an opportunity: the choice of what to do with it remains ours’ – and so the thing is the intercourse of people with the product. ‘People’ have pushed equity values higher and people will throw up some lucrative opportunities as the economy struggles to generate growth and so looks to technology to be the growth driver. Furthermore the rash of new products show us that technical developments have environmental, social, and human consequences that go far beyond the immediate purposes of the technical devices and practices themselves – note the seemingly sudden burst of interest in IoT and in PokemonGo this month – and this reminds us that “software is eating the world”. As always tech bounces up and down through the Summer months – July was an ‘up’ month. It is still too early to know the operational ramifications of Brexit. But so far the mood music has been more positive than expected, even if I am playing second fiddle to Mr Langshaw. Enjoy the Summer break.
“Never let a good crisis go to waste”
01 Jul 16
History tells us that the way to make money from shares is to “sell when others are greedy and to buy when others are fearful”. Yet for many investors the current market is less Churchill, less Buffet and more ‘Texas hold 'em’. Our soundings through the industry in the wake of the UK decision to Brexit are mixed; there are currency translation winners, there are whispers of projects being iced, there are concerns about the UK being a less attractive destination for staff and some EU tech workers (a third of IT staff in London) unsure of whether to stay or go. There is a vacuum of leadership – regular compass points don’t seem to work right now. This should throw up some lucrative opportunities as the economy struggles to generate growth and should be a positive as the stock market appetite for tech – the growth guys - will then be whetted. Whilst the retreat in valuations is partly healthy – too high for too long (see table), in truth we find the latest ‘spring back’ a surprise. As always tech bounces up and down through the Summer months – and in that respect there is some ‘continuity’. To reprise – Sell in May usually works.
Panmure Research - Flash 27-05-16
27 May 16
The sector valuation was weak through May. Our average FY1 EV/EBITDA faded from 10.8x to 10.4x in the past month. However, despite soggy share prices we are encouraged on several fronts. Yes, there is 'weeping and gnashing of teeth' by some, Brexit concerns have stifled corporate activity, quarterly results have been mixed, there is the usual 'Sell in May' feeling, outlook statements have a defensive tone and there is a general 'risk-off' attitude. However; (i) our 'growth beats returns' investment play is working well (see table), (ii) our 'walking around' research, meeting private and public companies and trips (IPExpo, Accountex, Salesforce World tour) showed us lots of exciting growth companies, and, (iii) there is evidence of tech demand and usage from many fervent millennials. As the wider economy struggles to generate growth, the stock market appetite for tech will be whetted once more. The retreat in valuations is healthy - they have been high for too long (see table). While we retain a generally cautious stance (seasonal factors) we remind that in tech sentiment often beats fundamentals and when we get out of the office cubicle we are encouraged as we "look around; Y' ken can see it on the trees; Y'ken can smell it in the breeze; June is bustin' out all over".
Taking a prudent road
28 Nov 16
As flagged in September, H1 2017 profit is indeed below LY; adj. PBT of £0.5m compares with £1.5m in H1 2016 as Trakm8 invests heavily in new technology and acquisition integration. Management remains confident in another very strong H2 performance and in particular is focused on closing a couple of large high-margin software-related sales which would see the group meeting the original FY 2017 expectations of £5.9m adj. PBT. However, should these fall outside the March year-end, profits are only likely to be in line with last year’s £3.9m, albeit on a growing revenue base. Prudence dictates we assume a worst-case scenario in our forecasts so that surprise is only in the upside – if the deals close in the year, the company will meet those original revenue and profit expectations.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 30-11-2016
30 Nov 16
Sanderson has delivered full year results in line with expectations and the 19 October trading update after a strong finish to the year compensated for a slower start. A healthy level of pre-contracted recurring revenue (50%), incremental sales to existing customers and new customer wins at higher average order values helped deliver solid revenue growth in both the Digital Retail (+9%) and Enterprise (+12%) divisions. A decent order book and good sales momentum suggest that the company is on track to deliver on unchanged profit expectations for the current year. We continue to view the valuation (FY17 EV/EBITDA 8.6x) as undemanding given an attractive combination of accelerating growth potential, strong cash generation and growing dividends.
N+1 Singer - Eckoh - In line interims, US secure payments gathers pace
29 Nov 16
Eckoh delivered interims in-line with expectations. UK growth was 11% whilst the US, reflecting a full period for PSS now accounts for 30% of sales. US Secure Payments wins gathered pace, with much larger contracts being won on SaaS-style pricing models and the pipeline at record levels. With contracts won in the first half feeding through strongly into the second half and given the group’s high level of recurring revenues (76%), the outlook remains positive for the rest of the year and we make no changes to forecasts. Eckoh has exceptional growth opportunities, particularly in the US, and we believe it can convert this to strong shareholder value.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 05-12-2016
05 Dec 16
RTHM is acquiring a profitable Canadian listed mobile specialist for equivalent of US$42.5m consideration in shares (88.235m). This helps adds to two growth vectors RTHM is targeting; (i) adds unique exclusive audience (10m unique) and (ii) Exclusive demand Yahoo and Facebook. The business has 15 premium and owned and operated apps which provide users with rewards for activity. The business is expected to deliver c$9m of EBITDA in FY18 including $2m of cost synergies. This equates to just 4.7x EV/EBITDA. This marks what we see the first step in RTHM activity to scale the business and deliver on margin potential (see our initiation notes). Our initial estimates for EPS revisions are very significant - for FY18 are 2.3 cents (currently 0.6) and for FY19 4.3 (currently 2.5). There is a call at 830 for investors and we will revise post this.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 29-11-2016
29 Nov 16
Vp has reported another impressive set of interims, confirming strong growth in most markets and a positive outlook. Recent acquisitions are bedding in well and the full year outturn is set to exceed previous expectations (5%/6% EPS upgrades in FY17/FY18). The recent Capital Markets Day provided a reminder of Vp’s qualities (specialist focus, high returns, strong cash generation) and its growth potential, which in our view are not reflected in a modest <11x P/E rating. We firmly believe the shares are due a re-rating and see intrinsic value in excess of 800p.