Gresham has delivered H1 organic revenue growth of 5% y/y (cc.), driven by continued positive momentum in Clareti revenues (+11% y/y). 5 new Clareti contract wins alongside 16 upgrades, have all contributed to strong top-line growth, with performance also underpinned by a NRR of 103% (+1pp h/h). Cash adj EBITDA was £1.7m (H1’22: £1.8m), with net cash of £3.8m (H1’22: £6.3m). The key highlight is contracted forward-looking revenue visibility of 95%/FY’23e (at Jun’23), leaving an undemanding c£2m revenue to find in H2. Even given macro turbulence and rapid base rate rises which drove major disruption in HTM bond book values and subsequently across global financial services institutions (GHT’s core market), GHT’s market-leading proposition continues to capture healthy demand and “a strong pipeline of opportunities”; rapid and accurate reconciliation software becomes even more critical in our view. Looking forward, we model cash EBITDA margins of 15% by FY’25e (FY’22: 9%) driven by GHT guidance for 40%/new ARR dropping through. Couple this with projected 14% sales CAGR to FY’25e and FCF yield moves sharply higher to 5%/7% by FY’24e/FY’25e. That’s compelling.
