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  • 29 Sep 17

Most popular equity research this week | 25 - 29 Sept

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Companies: CONNACLBOOTRNWHCMSLOKLRMCLLSTAFSXXULVRSVCAWYGUTWEVRHPRSMPURPVANLWATRPPHTAPBOOFCRM
  • 25 Sep 17

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 25-09-2017

Imagination Technologies Group (IMG LN) Recommended offer at 182p | Lombard Risk Management (LRM LN) (VIDEO SUMMARY) Positioned for strong growth and cash profitability | MJ Gleeson (GLE LN) Dividend hike adds income to growth attractions | MJ Gleeson (GLE LN) Dividend hike adds income to growth attractions | PureTech (PRTC LN) Gelesis progressing to filing discussions with Gelesis100 | River and Mercantile Group (RIV LN) EPS in line, dividend ahead, emphasising quality | Trifast (TRI LN) Confident H1 trading update, reiterating expectations for FY18 |

Companies: TRI IMG GLE OXP PRTC LRM RIV

  • 25 Sep 17

N+1 Singer - Lombard Risk Management - Positioned for strong growth and cash profitability

Lombard Risk is a niche provider of regulatory reporting and collateral management software with a strong position in a fast-growing market. It is halfway through a two-year plan that has already delivered a step change in revenue performance, accelerated the delivery of key new products and resulted in the creation of a world class development centre in Birmingham. Objectives for the current year include further development initiatives, transitioning development capabilities into the Birmingham office and cash profitability. We expect comfortable double-digit annual revenue growth and a return to cash profitability over the next few years. This will be delivered by new product sales, partnership successes and cost management. In our view, the current valuation fails to reflect this positive outlook, good revenue visibility and reducing earnings risk. We initiate coverage with a Buy and 16p target price.

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 18 Sep 17

Morning Note

Stride Gaming (STR): Changing pace (BUY) | Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): Strategic alliance with Euroclear (CORP) | Wentworth Resources (WRL): Payments received (BUY) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Annual results (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): German contract win (CORP) | MP Evans (MPE): Excellent interim results (BUY)

Companies: STR LRM WRL PDL AMO MPE

  • 27 Jul 17

Morning Note

InnovaDerma* (IDP): Sun’s out (CORP) | Savannah Resources* (SAV): Portuguese lithium exploration update (CORP) | Keywords Studios (KWS): Pedal to the metal (BUY) | Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): A Smart move by Lombard Risk (CORP)

Companies: IDP SAV KWS LRM

  • 19 Jul 17

Positive market and encouraging pipeline

After such an outstanding close to FY17, it was almost inevitable that Q1’18 was going to be somewhat quieter for new license orders. This happens most years (see below) as the pipeline is naturally replenished following a strong Q4. Typically leading to a 35%- 45% vs 65%-55% revenue split across H1:H2. We suspect FY18 will be no different, albeit perhaps pitched towards the bottom of the range.

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 25 May 17

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 25-05-2017

Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Earnings enhancing acquisition | Conviviality (CVR LN) Raising a glass to a positive YE update | Halfords Group (HFD LN) Confidence in FX mitigations + staycation benefits | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) Successful launch of the UK’s maiden PRS REIT, raising £250m | Small-cap quantitative research Momentum screen refresh + 9 focus stocks

Companies: HFD SGM SDM EYE SOG CLG MAB1 CVR GFIN FARN LRM W7L TET

  • 25 May 17

N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Momentum screen refresh + 9 focus stocks

We have refreshed our momentum screen for a second time, the previous refresh having been in January. As before, the screen selects the 25 stocks exhibiting the strongest momentum, according to our measurement method. From these we selected 9 to focus on. Since the last refresh the screen has significantly outperformed both the main small-cap and micro-cap indices against a background of strong and stable momentum generally. We also present here a wider study of accelerating and decelerating momentum stocks, because of interesting behaviour noticed previously. The interim conclusion is that these two characteristics are a significant differentiator of performance. We show on pages 7 and 8 the current most accelerative and decelerative stocks.

Companies: SDM EYE SOG MAB1 GFIN FARN LRM W7L TET

  • 25 May 17

Lombard delivers on promised growth

The new management team has more than delivered in the first of the two year plan to transform LRM into a profitable and cash generative, leading-edge software supplier to the global financial services industry. That plan is predicated on the belief that development costs were not too high for the size of business, but rather the business was too small for the proper investment required to develop regulatory and compliance solutions for Tier-1 banks. Funds raised last summer are being utilised to step up sales to a more sustainable level, and this will allow the operational gearing of a software business to deliver profit and cash. In this first year we have seen revenues and earnings beat even upgraded expectations, and the £7.0m year-end net cash position is impressive after excellent H2 cash generation. The share price has responded but has a long way to go, and we increase our target price to 18.75p in line with the progress on delivery.

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 24 May 17

Record order book, sales and top line growth

‘You ain’t seen nothing yet’ was a phrase famously coined by US President Ronald Reagan back in 1984. 33 years on, it could equally apply to today’s hugely impressive FY17 prelims from Lombard Risk

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 24 May 17

Morning Note

Abzena (ABZA): TNT009 bought by Bioverativ for $400m (BUY) | Europa Oil & Gas* (EOG): Placing and open offer (CORP) | STM* (STM): A strong base with optionality (CORP) | Trakm8* (TRAK): Telematics contract win underpins FY 2018 (CORP) | Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): Lombard delivers the promised growth (CORP) | Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1): In-line trading update (HOLD) | Ideagen* (IGP): New hires demonstrating the sales focus (CORP)

Companies: ABZA EOG STM TRAK LRM MAB1 IGP

  • 21 Apr 17

Most popular equity research this week | 17-21 April

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Companies: SDXACSOTRILRMMTECGMDPEL
  • 19 Apr 17

44% organic growth plus £7m of net cash

Many bank executives often complain about the reams of financial red-tape coming out of Brussels, London and New York. Not so Lombard Risk, which this morning delivered what can only be described as a ‘phenomenal’ set of results – reporting FY17 turnover, EBITDA and net cash all substantially above our estimates at £34.0m-£34.4m (vs ED at £31.8m), £2.4m-£2.8m (-£0.4m) and £7.0m (£1.4m) respectively.

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 19 Apr 17

Small Cap Breakfast

Global Ports Holding—Intention to float on Standard List. International cruise ports operator. Seeking $250m raise including $75m primary offer. Dorcaster—Schedule One Update. Admission now expected 3 May. RTO of Escape Hunt raising £14m at 135p Verditek— Intention to float on AIM. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Raising £3.5m. Admission in May. Eddie Stobart Logistics— Schedule 1. Admission expected 25 April but capital raising details TBC. ADES International Holding— Intends to join the Standard List in May raising up to $170m plus a vendor sale. Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa. Admission expected in May. Tufton Oceanic Assets– Offer extended to 9 May to enable investors to complete further due diligence.

Companies: RBD SGI MAG LRM VNET EMH SYS1 ALT FBT

  • 19 Apr 17

Morning Note

Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): Beats demanding growth and profit forecasts (CORP) | Frontier Developments* (FDEV): Steaming ahead (CORP) | Tax Systems* (TAX): Right place, right time (CORP) | Acal (ACL): Stronger H2 and brighter outlook (BUY) | Fenner (FENR): Interim results signal upgrades (BUY) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): US and Europe domain sales (CORP)

Companies: LRM FDEV TAX ACL FENR MMX

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Lombard Risk Management. We currently have 59 research reports from 6 professional analysts.

Open
10.8
Volume
0.1m
Range
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Market Cap
43m
52 Week
7.63/14.9

Latest News/RNS

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Date Source Announcement
11Oct17 07:00 RNS Notice of Interim Results
05Oct17 07:00 RNS Holding(s) in Company
21Sep17 14:08 RNS Holding(s) in Company
19Jul17 10:18 RNS Result of AGM
19Jul17 07:00 RNS AGM Statement
05Jun17 07:00 RNS Grant of Options
24May17 07:00 RNS Final Results
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  • 17 Oct 17

N+1 Singer - dotdigital Group - H2 growth acceleration; M&A in focus

With its exposure to a structural growth market, a highly recurring business model, consistent strong execution, healthy balance sheet and potential new avenues for growth, we believe dotdigital remains a core holding in the sector. It offers investors an attractive compounding growth stock with the potential for accelerated growth as it expands internationally and increasing prospects for M&A. The FY results (19% sales growth, 27% EBITDA growth and 32% EPS growth) showed another year of strong execution, with the H2 growth acceleration particularly pleasing. We remain confident of the group’s prospects.

Companies: Dotdigital Group
  • 17 Oct 17

Nudge, nudge, Nobel prize for a small cap fan!

Further evidence that the shrewder investor prefers a smaller company, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Professor Thaler, an avowed fan of the smaller brethren. Back down to earth, all markets continue to make headway, with the smaller company indices continuing to lead the way. Despite the apparent deadlock in the Brexit process, life appears to carry on. The MPC meeting on 2 November and the Budget on 22 November may offer greater insight. In Share News & Views, we comment on recent updates from Cropper*, Halstead, Norcros, Tricorn* Walker Greenbank and Wincanton.

Companies: APC BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM GETB PCF PPIX SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L

  • 16 Oct 17

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 16-10-2017

Augean (AUG LN) Board changes and reduction in expectations | First Derivatives (FDP LN) Agreement with European Space Agency | Futura Medical (FUM LN) Market research supports the commercial potential of Eroxon® | Low & Bonar (LWB LN) Civil Engineering struggling | Sinclair Pharma (SPH LN) Forecast update; profitability inflection and strong growth ahead

Companies: AUG SPH LWB FUM FDP

  • 20 Oct 17

It’s now ‘when’ not ‘if’ for HomeSend

HomeSend, eServGlobal’s JV with Mastercard and BICS of Belgium, has always represented a very exciting prospect. With the backing of the giant credit-card agency, it stood a good chance of securing a significant share of the US$600bn global remittance market. With a relatively minimal cost base, the transaction volumes from even a tiny share would have delivered US$100m in earnings for eServGlobal’s 35% stake – and Mastercard’s 26% of the global credit-card market suggested a far greater share was possible. Now, after recent announcements, we realise: firstly, that the applicable market size was woefully underestimated; secondly, that its share will not be tiny but significant; and thirdly, that success for HomeSend is becoming a certainty. On the contracts already signed, HomeSend will generate revenue and profits of hundreds of millions of dollars; it is now simply a matter of when its transaction corridors go live and the commission streams ramp up. We understand that that, too, will be faster than thought.

Companies: ESERVGLOBAL
  • 17 Oct 17

Guidance for sales trebling despite cash constraints

The trading update notes an A$200m pipeline of opportunities; however, prudent resource constraints have forced a slowdown in spending on the Fleet business roll-out with a knock-on impact to this year’s revenue and losses. Since the sale of the Off-Road business to Caterpillar, Fleet is the main revenue-driving division. On the back of this update, we are easing our Fleet - and therefore group - revenue and earnings forecasts for FY 2018 and FY 2019. Nevertheless, Seeing Machines is still demonstrating extremely strong sales growth, issuing guidance that it expects to more than treble revenue this year from A$13m to around A$40m, and then double this again in the year to June 2019 at c.A$80m. By then, OEM Automotive, Rail and Aerospace divisions should all be making strong sales contributions to augment the Fleet division growth.

Companies: Seeing Machines
  • 17 Oct 17

N+1 Singer - RhythmOne - H1 Trading update

The Company has provided an update for H1. Revenues ($112-114m guidance) are tracking slightly lower than we had been looking for with gross margin higher by 1% point (at 38%) and OPEX lower resulting in EBITDA being not far adrift from our expectation ($1.5m to $2.0m guidance). The Company is guiding to meeting our full year $16m EBITDA expectation, in part because OPEX is expected to continue to be materially lower (US$87m for the full year). In order to meet our forecast the Company will need to still achieve our revenue objective although we flag there is still some scope for OPEX to surprise given the continuing consolidation of the operations and acquisitions. More cash has had to be invested in working capital (an issue in the industry at the moment) and there are some YUME acquisition related expenses (we estimate c$3m) also impacting cash (guidance of $37m rising to $50m at year end). The Company expects some recovery in working capital in H2. The shares have been drifting off during the YUME acquisition process. We expect the shares to recover as the process nears completion (due early 2018) and investors get confirmation the Company is tracking towards the delivery of the critical leap in profitability this year.

Companies: Rhythmone
  • 17 Oct 17

Morning Note

Flowtech Fluidpower* (FLO): Q3 trading update confirms good organic growth (CORP) | President Energy* (PPC): Puesto Flores – first oil delivery and revenue (CORP) | dotDigital* (DOTD): 2H acceleration: progress on every front (CORP) | Orchard Funding* (ORCH): Insuretech winning (CORP)

Companies: FLO PPC DOTD ORCH

  • 19 Oct 17

N+1 Singer - Oxford Metrics - FY’17 slightly ahead, strategic plan on track

Oxford Metrics’ year end trading update highlights another strong period of delivery for the group, with FY’17 revenue and adjusted PBT both expected to be slightly ahead of expectations. Net cash at the year end of £9.8m is also ahead of our £9.4m forecast. FY’17 is the first year of the group’s five-year growth plan and both Vicon and Yotta are beginning to see the benefit of the increased investment in the year. Oxford Metrics continues to provide investors with an attractive mix of IP led, market leading technology and cash generation, with recent investments placing the group on an enhanced growth trajectory. Our Dec’18 SOTP calculation results in an intrinsic value of 72p, with further outperformance potential as the group utilises its strong balance sheet.

Companies: Oxford Metrics
  • 17 Oct 17

RhythmOne H1 trading statement/ inline with mgmt expectations/ focus on cash/ no

RhythmOne has issued a trading statement for H1 2018. Performance is in line with management expectations and revenues are expected to be $112-114m vs H12017 of $67m. These numbers are not LFL as they include Perk for the half and RadiumOne for a quarter. Gross profit margin was 38% which is up from last year and in line with my FY2018 expectations. The gross margins at Perk and RadiumOne are higher than old R1. Adj EBITDA is expected to be a profit of $1.5m -$2m.

Companies: Rhythmone
  • 17 Oct 17

Microsoft relationship deepens

Two new product integrations with Microsoft Azure, together with the recently released Amazon AWS hybrid solution, add up to a meaningful strengthening of WANdisco’s credentials and platform for growth. We see scope for a significant acceleration in operationally geared growth, especially if the company can progress one or two of its tier one relationships into a strategic relationship akin to the one with IBM.

Companies: Wandisco
  • 20 Oct 17

N+1 Singer - IQE - Unexpected historic US tax bill

IQE has announced that during the course of a routine US tax filing exercise, unexpected prior year taxes due of c.£4.2m have been discovered. The identified taxes date back to 2013, when the group acquired the epitaxy business of Kopin. As a result of the September ’16 group re-organisation, it is believed that no similar tax liability arises in 2017. Alongside this announcement the group has confirmed that the VCSEL ramp up in Q3 is on track, giving us confidence in our full year forecasts. We do not expect to make any material changes to estimates and remain positive on the stock, with multiple programs expected to drive significant upgrades to our FY’18 estimates and beyond.

Companies: IQE
  • 10 Oct 17

Outgrown its valuation and deserves a re-rating

While iomart’s share price is roughly where it was in 2013, it has since then doubled revenue and profits through a combination of organic growth and bolt-on acquisitions. Including potential future acquisitions (not in forecasts), we think it should maintain mid-teens growth in revenue and EBITDA consistent with the past few years making the shares attractively priced at 9.4x FY’18 EBITDA. This compares to other UK Technology midcaps at 16.0x on the same expectation of 15% EBITDA growth p.a. We initiate with a buy rating and price target of 430p.

Companies: Iomart Group
  • 17 Oct 17

2H acceleration: progress on every front

Strong results from text book execution derive from delivery of the three strategic routes to growth: more partners, doubling the addressable market; increasing reach of successful operational territories, delivering 48% revenue growth outside the UK; and broader product functionality – leading to +24% spend per customer, from a growing stable of c4,000 active customers. FY17 revenue is in line with expectations, while EBITDA of £10.2m (vs £9.7mE) is 5% ahead; adj EPS is 9% ahead. Cash of £20.4m (£19.3mE) highlights 2H free cash flow of 108% of adjusted PBT, and a balance sheet with options open for further growth – increased investment through opex and capex; a well-covered dividend; and potential M&A to accelerate product development, or enhance organic growth in new territories through acquiring local presence. We lift our 12-month target price to 92p (80p), in line with the Megabuyte accounting and enterprise software peer group.

Companies: Dotdigital Group
  • 17 Oct 17

Small Cap Brunch

Totally (TLY) - Sch 1 for £11m RTO of Vocare, a provider of integrated urgent care services to the NHS throughout the UK. £76.8 million rev in the year ended 31 March 2017. Totally to address Care Quality Commission concerns. Due 24 Oct. Central Asia Metals (CAML) -RTO of Lynx Resources. Anticipated market capitalisation at Admission: £404.8m. Raising £113m at 230p. Acquiring the SASA zinc-lead mine in Macedonia from Solway Industries. Due 15 Dec. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. Orogen plc, to be renamed Sosandar plc on Admission. Sosander is an online womenswear brand specifically targeted at a generation of women who have graduated from younger online and high street brands, and are looking for affordable clothing with a premium, trend-led aesthetic. Offer to raise £5.3m with market cap of £16.1m, expected 2 November 2017 OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected late October .

Companies: PPC BMK HCM IHC KCR DOTD STI TIDE

  • 19 Oct 17

N+1 Singer - First Derivatives - Kx selected for dynamic pricing

First Derivatives has announced that Kx has been selected by Scientific Revenue as its real-time analytics platform for dynamic pricing. While this deal has no immediate impact on our estimates, we believe the revenue potential is significant. Moreover, it further highlights the ultra-high performance capabilities of Kx and its attractions to technology leaders addressing analytical challenges in environments characterised by large volumes of fast-moving data. We will revisit our forecasts and target price when interim results are released on 7 November.

Companies: First Derivatives