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  • 10 Nov 17
Most popular equity research this week | 6 - 10 Nov

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Companies: SEEFOGWRLNETAVOND4T4IDOXIGPIOMKCOMSDMTEPUNGIQENAUTKBTAMOLRMEOGMAIALTSRTTRAKNASAPHDBOTBZOOARTAPPCHURVIPRCNQXTKWSONEVTAXIOGCYANABALPMGCITYQTX7DIGFEVRTPOPSPECTPRTHMCHARSSYSIMTRMRWANDSTR932MMXDTC
  • 09 Nov 17
The Joy of Techs

This quarter we use finnCap’s Slide Rule to provide both top-down and bottom-up analysis of the UK’s Technology and Telecoms sectors. Our findings are very reassuring: the Tech sector scores the best (across all sectors) when considering Growth and Quality – Taptica*, Frontier Developments* and dotDigital* in particular stand out on these metrics. Given these attractive characteristics and growth prospects, the Tech sector is unsurprisingly one of the most expensive – currently trading at 17.2x FY1 EV/EBIT and 23.8x FY1 P/E, versus 15.0x and 18.5x respectively for the wider market. Despite valuations appearing high, we believe there are value opportunities. For example, Proactis* features in finnCap’s QVGM+ portfolio (ranked 17/462) – the company offers attractive organic and inorganic growth, with earnings forecast to grow by 26% CAGR over the next two years, but despite this, only trades on 15x FY1 earnings and offers 8% FCF yield in FY2.

Companies: 7DIG ALT AMO ARTA BOTB BLTG CTP CITY D4T4 DTC DOTD ELCO FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SEE SIM SPE SRT STR TRMR TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO CYAN ONEV SSY ABAL WJA

  • 01 Nov 17
Small Cap Breakfast

Ten Lifestyle Hldgs. Technology-enabled lifestyle and travel platform providing trusted concierge services to the world's wealthy. Net revenue increased from £20 million in the year ended 31 August 2015 to £33 million in the year ended 31 August 2017, a compound annual growth rate of 29%. Offer and date TBA. AfriTin Mining—Demerger from Bushveld Minerals (BMN.L). Offer TBA. Due 6 Nov. The Uis Tin project (Namibia) is considered the flagship tin asset within the portfolio, as this was once the largest open cast tine mine of its kind in the world . Footasylum Ltd—UK-based fashion retailer focusing on the branded footwear and apparel markets announced its intention to seek admission to AIM. Expected value between £130m and £150m. Due Nov 2017. Central Asia Metals (CAML) -RTO of Lynx Resources. Anticipated market capitalisation at Admission: £404.8m. Raising £113m at 230p. Acquiring the SASA zinc-lead mine in Macedonia from Solway Industries. Due 15 Dec. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. Orogen plc, to be renamed Sosandar plc on Admission. Sosandar is an online womenswear brand specifically targeted at a generation of women who have graduated from younger online and high street brands, and are looking for affordable clothing with a premium, trend-led aesthetic. Offer to raise £5.3m with market cap of £16.1m, expected 2 November 2017 OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected mid November .

Companies: MERC EME RQIH SOLG LRM AEG BEG

  • 01 Nov 17
Morning Note

Lok’nStore* (LOK): Expanding the pipeline (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): Revised forecasts (BUY) | OptiBiotix* (OPTI): SlimBiome supply agreement (CORP) | Velocity Composites (VEL): Strong H2 uplift delivers trading in line (CORP) | Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): Challenger bank selects AgileREPORTER (CORP)

Companies: LOK RBG OPTI VEL LRM

  • 25 Oct 17
H1 sees collateral damage but FY affirmed

H1 was surprisingly challenging for the collateral management business, but management has sufficient visibility and confidence in the pipeline to reaffirm guidance for the company’s FY growth and profit expectations. A poor six months hampered by a fall in service revenue and contract delays does leave a mountain to climb in the second half, but the company feels it has sufficient momentum given the £9.2m contracted orderbook and record pipeline to achieve a demanding target. It is important that the operational accomplishments over the last 18 months are not lost in the gloom of an underperforming half: sales have moved up to a different level since 2016; operations are now truly global with growing success in Asia; a new development centre has been set up; and a partnership has been formed with Oracle. Given the board’s obvious confidence and the record pipeline, we leave our FY expectations and target price unchanged.

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 25 Oct 17
Tough H1, but primed for a record H2

Predicting the exact moment when large contracts land is never easy, but made doubly difficult if customer purchasing decisions are impacted by outside forces. This has been the case for LRM in the first half, as several chunky orders have been pushed to the right ahead of new MiFID II rules being introduced on 3 Jan’18. Not least, one significant collateral deal, worth £3.25m in license fees alone, which is now anticipated to be signed in late Q3, or early Q4.

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 29 Sep 17
Most popular equity research this week | 25 - 29 Sept

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Companies: CONNDSCVBOOTRNWHCMSLOKLRMCLLSTAFSXXULVRWYGUTWEVRHSVCAPRSMPURPVANLWATRPPHTRMRBOOFCRM
  • 18 Sep 17
Morning Note

Stride Gaming (STR): Changing pace (BUY) | Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): Strategic alliance with Euroclear (CORP) | Wentworth Resources (WRL): Payments received (BUY) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Annual results (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): German contract win (CORP) | MP Evans (MPE): Excellent interim results (BUY)

Companies: STR LRM WRL PDL AMO MPE

  • 27 Jul 17
Morning Note

InnovaDerma* (IDP): Sun’s out (CORP) | Savannah Resources* (SAV): Portuguese lithium exploration update (CORP) | Keywords Studios (KWS): Pedal to the metal (BUY) | Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): A Smart move by Lombard Risk (CORP)

Companies: IDP SAV KWS LRM

  • 19 Jul 17
Positive market and encouraging pipeline

After such an outstanding close to FY17, it was almost inevitable that Q1’18 was going to be somewhat quieter for new license orders. This happens most years (see below) as the pipeline is naturally replenished following a strong Q4. Typically leading to a 35%- 45% vs 65%-55% revenue split across H1:H2. We suspect FY18 will be no different, albeit perhaps pitched towards the bottom of the range.

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 25 May 17
Lombard delivers on promised growth

The new management team has more than delivered in the first of the two year plan to transform LRM into a profitable and cash generative, leading-edge software supplier to the global financial services industry. That plan is predicated on the belief that development costs were not too high for the size of business, but rather the business was too small for the proper investment required to develop regulatory and compliance solutions for Tier-1 banks. Funds raised last summer are being utilised to step up sales to a more sustainable level, and this will allow the operational gearing of a software business to deliver profit and cash. In this first year we have seen revenues and earnings beat even upgraded expectations, and the £7.0m year-end net cash position is impressive after excellent H2 cash generation. The share price has responded but has a long way to go, and we increase our target price to 18.75p in line with the progress on delivery.

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 24 May 17
Record order book, sales and top line growth

‘You ain’t seen nothing yet’ was a phrase famously coined by US President Ronald Reagan back in 1984. 33 years on, it could equally apply to today’s hugely impressive FY17 prelims from Lombard Risk

Companies: Lombard Risk Management
  • 24 May 17
Morning Note

Abzena (ABZA): TNT009 bought by Bioverativ for $400m (BUY) | Europa Oil & Gas* (EOG): Placing and open offer (CORP) | STM* (STM): A strong base with optionality (CORP) | Trakm8* (TRAK): Telematics contract win underpins FY 2018 (CORP) | Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): Lombard delivers the promised growth (CORP) | Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1): In-line trading update (HOLD) | Ideagen* (IGP): New hires demonstrating the sales focus (CORP)

Companies: ABZA EOG STM TRAK LRM MAB1 IGP

  • 21 Apr 17
Most popular equity research this week | 17-21 April

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Companies: ACSOTRILRMGATCSDXGMDPEL
  • 19 Apr 17
44% organic growth plus £7m of net cash

Many bank executives often complain about the reams of financial red-tape coming out of Brussels, London and New York. Not so Lombard Risk, which this morning delivered what can only be described as a ‘phenomenal’ set of results – reporting FY17 turnover, EBITDA and net cash all substantially above our estimates at £34.0m-£34.4m (vs ED at £31.8m), £2.4m-£2.8m (-£0.4m) and £7.0m (£1.4m) respectively.

Companies: Lombard Risk Management

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Lombard Risk Management. We currently have 69 research reports from 6 professional analysts.

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52 Week
5.50/15.3p
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0.0%
Pension Liability
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Enterprise Value
£43.9m
Market Cap
£50.9m
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Latest News/RNS

(more news)
Date Source Announcement
23Feb18 12:15 RNS Exercise of Options
23Feb18 09:58 RNS Scheme of arrangement becomes effective
23Feb18 07:30 RNS Suspension - Lombard Risk Management plc
23Feb18 07:19 RNS Cancellation of Shares from trading on AIM
22Feb18 12:05 RNS Court sanction of the scheme of arrangement
16Feb18 14:56 RNS Results of Court Meeting and General Meeting
02Feb18 15:23 RNS PDMR Shareholding
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  • 11 Dec 19
Pipeline remains robust with growing SaaS content

Sopheon’s trading update confirms that some of its customers are delaying decisions on contracts because of uncertainty prevailing in their own markets and businesses. At the time of the interim results, Sopheon’s management expected a return to a stronger second half weighting for the full year numbers. That is still the case and the Group continues to highlight the strength of the new business pipeline and a higher proportion of SaaS (Software as a Service) opportunities. Nevertheless, the anticipated signings of a number of opportunities have now slipped into 2020. With revenue visibility currently at $28 million, we conservatively move our current year revenue estimate down 13% to $29 million with a knock-on effect on EBITDA (down 29%). We also assume that buying cycles remain extended during FY 2020E and therefore take a prudent view on our numbers for that year as well with revenue and Adj. EBITDA estimates reducing by 10% and 40% respectively.

Companies: Sopheon
  • 09 Dec 19
Allenby Capital TMT Update - 09.12.19 (CCT.L, BIRD.L, GFIN.L)

The Character Group plc* (CCT.L, 360p/£80.2m) | Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 15p/£42.8m) |Gfinity plc* (GFIN.L, 3.90p/£18.5m)

Companies: CCT BIRD GFIN

  • 06 Dec 19
Bigblu Broadband - H219 trading in line, confident in FY20

Bigblu’s trading statement confirmed an H2 performance in line with expectations. Actions to cleanse the customer base should yield operational benefits over time and the above consensus year-end net debt figure (£14m vs £9m) primarily reflected a Brexit-driven inventory build that should reverse in the next few months. Bigblu remains confident in FY20 consensus (see below), which implies an acceleration in revenue growth.

Companies: Bigblu Broadband
  • 09 Dec 19
Trakm8*

H1'20: Stable sales masks substantially lower losses

Companies: Trakm8
  • 21 Oct 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP ESRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 09 Dec 19
Comprehensive change, new potential, multi-billion $ markets

PTY is a brand leader in specialist consulting and strategic recruitment linked to data services. As a leading player in its field, the company is now seizing the opportunity to grow profits by lifting its high-value data service activities as a share of the mix. Recent H1 results reflected the significant transition that PTY is going through, while also heralding better numbers further down the line as the mix moves towards higher value services (also helped by success in removing a net £1.2m costs). Complementary activities directly linked to the core data focus are being developed. So far in this process, the company has seen a bigger reorganisation programme than originally anticipated – but has also highlighted the extra potential that this is generating. The company’s target market of data services is estimated at $10bn-plus and growing rapidly, while early signs from PTY’s change programme indicate the potential for meaningful client acquisition, with new clients such as Compass reflecting the opportunity for the business to scale up substantially. The recent announcement of Heads of Terms reached with a partner, Integumen plc, in delivering intelligent data management systems, is potentially a major step forward (to be finalised by 18/12).

Companies: Parity Group
  • 12 Dec 19
Arden Tech SoundBytes

Disney+ hits 22m mobile users, SoftBank backed firm downsizes IPO, German mobile carrier selects Huawei

Companies: ENET 7DIG EVRH ZOO ZOO AMO BOOM MIRA MWE

  • 13 Dec 19
Trakm8*

Possible sentiment boost on election result

Companies: Trakm8
  • 18 Nov 19
Acquisition of Team Internet

CentralNic has announced the acquisition of Team Internet for a total consideration of $48m. The acquisition will be financed in part by a further €40m bond issue under identical terms to the €50m issue announced on 23 May 2019. Team Internet operates a ‘domain monetisation’ platform, allowing domain name owners to monetise dormant domains to generate recurring income to offset renewal fees and earn a profit. This provides a complimentary service to existing CNIC services: clients currently pay CentralNic subscription fees to register and renew domain names. Team Internet had revenues of $66.7m in the 12 months to June 2019, with EBITDA of $10.6m. We expect this transaction to have an immaterial impact to 2019E due to timing and be 43.8% accretive to 2020E earnings. Post completion, we estimate net debt:EBITDA will be 2.1x in 2020E falling to 1.6x in 2021E.

Companies: Centralnic Group
  • 04 Dec 19
CloudCall

New partnership with TargetRecruit; Positive

Companies: Cloudcall Group
  • 03 Dec 19
Vicon continued strength; Yotta ARR building

Prelims reveal continued progress, particularly within Vicon, where sales grew an impressive 16% y/y, in turn driven by success within both new and existing verticals and so consistent with strategic objectives. Relative to forecasts, sales of £35.4m (+12% y/y) are in line and so too is adj. PBT of £5.5m, following continued investment and also IFRS 15 adoption. We leave forecasts essentially unchanged, believing the drivers for both divisions remain firmly intact and indeed reaffirmed, following an excellent FY’19, particularly in Engineering and ‘Adjacent Verticals’ within Vicon. On valuation, we continue to apply a SOTP methodology, reflecting both Vicon’s industry leading position and cash generative qualities and further, Yotta’s growing ARR in our fair value calculation. This arrives at 108p, implying some 20% upside.

Companies: Oxford Metrics
  • 20 Nov 19
We remain selective; Buy Consumer Tech

We continue to take a selective stance on stocks within the small cap Technology space. The sector’s equity performance was lacklustre over 2019, rising 4% and keeping pace with the All-Share index (relative to multi-year periods of outperformance) as investors took a cautious stance on geopolitical and macro risk. We believe cautious sentiment is likely to dominate trade during the first half of 2020 and maintain our preference for consumeroriented players, consistent with our Arden Thematic Technology framework. Our top picks for 2020 are CDM, EVRH*, SUMO and VNET.

Companies: CALL CDM FDEV KWS SUMO TM17

  • 25 Nov 19
H1 as expected but with growing SaaS prospects

As noted in the trading update, H1 was in line with expectations. It highlighted that this year will be particularly H2-weighted, with £8.8m sales in H1 delivering a small Adj. PBT. The expectation of a record H2 is underpinned by substantial annual contract renewals from licences signed in H2 LY; strong visibility on new contracts due to initiate in H2; and a significant pipeline of new business in negotiation with existing clients who continue to derive substantial benefits from D4t4’s data management solutions. We reiterate our FY forecasts and TP.

Companies: D4T4 Solutions
  • 27 Nov 19
iomart - Investing for meaningful revenue growth

Reiterating the October trading update commentary, investment in developing the enterprise focus of the group has led to larger contract wins. While this will benefit 2H20 and underwrite FY21 revenue growth, we trim FY20 and FY21 adj EBIT expectations by 9% and 11% respectively, with additional investment in infrastructure reducing FCF to still strong £11.4m (FY20) and £18.6m (FY21). With bold statements of investment from identification of opportunities, we look forward to proof of organic execution, alongside further acquisitions. Target 450p reiterated.

Companies: Iomart Group
  • 28 Nov 19
Indian Uber prepares UK launch, Intel pulls down PC makers, TikTok plans Chinese separation

Indian ride-sharing firm Ola says it has started registering drivers in London as it prepares to launch in the U.K. capital. The company, which is backed by Uber investor SoftBank, said it would look to launch its services in the city "In the coming weeks." The announcement comes just a day after Uber was stripped of its London license by the local transport regulator. London is Uber's largest European market, where it counts 45,000 drivers and 3.5 million passengers.

Companies: TRAK SEE TCM TRCS QTX