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|20/10/2016 16:57:03||London Stock Exchange||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|30/09/2016 14:37:18||London Stock Exchange||Total Voting Rights|
|22/09/2016 17:13:02||London Stock Exchange||Result of AGM|
|22/09/2016 07:00:11||London Stock Exchange||AGM Statement|
|14/09/2016 11:19:37||London Stock Exchange||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|14/09/2016 11:19:09||London Stock Exchange||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|14/09/2016 11:18:49||London Stock Exchange||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
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09 Sep 16
"Overnight markets ended mostly weaker in relatively quiet trading. The principal drivers were yesterday's decision by the ECB to leave its €1.7 trillion stimulus package unchanged and a continuing sell off of technology stocks, following Apple's launch of its rather less than inspiring iPhone 7 and Hewlett Packard Enterprise's plan to spin off and merge most of its software operations with the UK's Micro Focus international (MCRO.L). As a result, the NASDAQ took the biggest hit amongst the main US equity indices, while elsewhere energy stocks took confidence from the largest one-day gain in the benchmark Nymex contract for almost six months after the US Energy Information Administration data revealed the steepest fall in crude stockpiles since 1999. Interesting also, the Fed Funds futures appear to finally be forming a consensus regarding rate expectations, with bets now indicating the chance of a September rise has fallen to just 24%, while expectation of one in December is now put at 60%. The Hang Seng was the only winner amongst Asia's major equity markets, celebrating news that the Chinese regulator had finally confirmed it will allow domestic insurers to invest in Hong Kong-quoted shares through a trading link with Shanghai. This further opening follows last month's go-ahead for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is due to open by the end of this year and create a second portal for foreign investors looking to access China's US$6.5tn equity market. This news was tempered on the Composite index, however, as CPI data released for August showed prices slowing for the fourth month in a row and remaining firmly below Government target. The UK this morning is expected to provide Trade Construction figures, while EU finance ministers will meet in Bratislava to discuss, amongst other things, the ECB's continuing policy inaction. The Fed's Eric Rosengren is scheduled to make a speech this afternoon which could further help traders firm expectations regarding the FOMC meeting now due in less than two weeks. Corporates due to release earning figures this morning include Comptoir Group (COM.L), Richoux Group (RIC.L) and JD Weatherspoon (JDW.L). Investors will also remain sensitive to further disclosures regarding North Korea's reported fifth nuclear test this morning and the planned meeting between Saudi, Algerian oil ministers and OPEC's general secretary. The FTSE-100 is seen modestly weaker, losing perhaps 10 points in opening trade." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Gains on repayments – Good housekeeping
01 Aug 16
All the details are important. Re-pricing debt means that the revised terms provide a cash interest benefit in the first year of cUS$8.3m. This gives cause for a small earnings upgrade. Hat tip to Micro Focus for good housekeeping and remembering to sweat the small stuff. We retain our Buy, with a target price of 2052p.
“I don’t hear any music.”
29 Jul 16
So replied the violinist Fritz Kreisler to the lady who said “your violin makes such beautiful music.” And so we learn that the instrument (ie the hardware) is of no use whatsoever without the human element. This week we saw Sage debut a rack of new products at SageSummit, there was the US$9.3bn Netsuite acquisition by Oracle, which in the wake of ARM plc acquisition pushed share prices up as M&A thoughts drove thinking. We frame all of these moves relative to our SMAC stack scenario. However our Compliance Officer David Langshaw (off to read for an MSc in History of Science, Medicine and Technology at Kellogg College, Oxford - whatever) tells me that I have missed the essential truth – namely Kranzberg’s Six Laws of Technology. Kranzberg’s core message is, ‘Technology merely presents an opportunity: the choice of what to do with it remains ours’ – and so the thing is the intercourse of people with the product. ‘People’ have pushed equity values higher and people will throw up some lucrative opportunities as the economy struggles to generate growth and so looks to technology to be the growth driver. Furthermore the rash of new products show us that technical developments have environmental, social, and human consequences that go far beyond the immediate purposes of the technical devices and practices themselves – note the seemingly sudden burst of interest in IoT and in PokemonGo this month – and this reminds us that “software is eating the world”. As always tech bounces up and down through the Summer months – July was an ‘up’ month. It is still too early to know the operational ramifications of Brexit. But so far the mood music has been more positive than expected, even if I am playing second fiddle to Mr Langshaw. Enjoy the Summer break.
14 Jul 16
No sign of headwinds a as Micro Focus delivers a banner set of results. Micro Focus has already pre-announced the headlines from its 14 July financials, and shares have regained their upward move. We are relaxed about guidance; there was of course be a caution on currency (it reports in dollars) but the company upgraded guidance to -2% to 0% in the core, balanced with appreciably faster growth at SUSE at 18% vs our 6% growth. Micro Focus is the sector’s TSR all-star – we still see a return this year (NetDebt/EBITDA of 2.3x) on our return assumption. In our view the rating is too cheap, with EV/EBITDA 10.3x and dividend yield 6.0%. We are relaxed with our on-going Buy and increase our target price to 2052p (2034p).
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Upgrade on lower costs, pipeline strong
24 Oct 16
Fusionex’s year-end trading update indicates that revenues will be in line with market expectations (we estimate 16% revenue growth in FY16) and that a strong pipeline for GIANT 2016 should drive further momentum in FY17. The planned increase in sales, marketing and other investment to support adoption of GIANT has been more moderate than we forecast, meaning that EBITDA is expected to be significantly above consensus. We upgrade our FY16 EBITDA by MYR3.2m (83% but from a compressed level) to reflect this, while leaving our estimates for FY17 and FY18 unchanged.
N+1 Singer - NCC Group - Strong revenue but margins weaker in H1
20 Oct 16
NCC’s trading update for the four months to September shows continued strong revenue growth, but margin pressures in the first half mean that profit for the year will be more second half weighted than usual. Group revenue increased 36% in the period (+21% organic) with Assurance and Escrow both growing well (+25% and +4% respectively). The Assurance division has seen three unrelated large contract cancellations however, as well as some difficulties with some managed services renewals. We are not making any changes to our forecasts at this stage but now expect a significant second half weighting to profits. We remain supportive of the story but with the shares priced for perfection, we downgrade to Hold, with a target price of 353p (from 384p).
A slower ramp for GOV.UK Verify
20 Oct 16
Underlying trading was solid in H116. However the new GOV.UK Verify service is behind plan and we are pairing back our revenue estimates to reflect a slower ramp. Outperformance and deferred investment elsewhere mitigates the earnings impact of this in FY16, but we reduce EPS forecasts by 5% in FY17 and FY18. The business remains very well placed, but we believe that a period of share price consolidation is likely ahead of the transition to the new CEO, Chris Clark (ex-Experian) in April 2017.
N+1 Singer - Earthport - Traction continuing to build
26 Oct 16
Earthport has reported an in-line set of results for the full year to June’16. The group has delivered 89% growth in the number of transactions, resulting in payment volumes through the platform increasing to $11.8 billion. A FY’16 adj. EBITDA loss of £7.5m represents a strong HoH trajectory (H1 loss £5.3m, H2 loss £2.2m) and the group has reaffirmed its commitment to becoming cash generative in Q4’17. Earthport has proved that it can scale new customers quickly as well as extracting significant volume increases from existing customers. With multiple catalysts on the horizon and a strong start to the year already achieved, we believe the group is very well-placed to gain a significant share of the vast cross-border payments market.