StatPro has received a recommended all-cash offer at 230p per share (a 54.9% premium to the closing price) from Confluence Technologies, a private equity-backed (TA Associates) US-based provider of solutions to the global asset management industry. The offer is recommended by the board and supported by shareholders representing 65.2% of the shares. At the interims, management confirmed its focus on driving sales, having established the building blocks for growth (consolidation of the Revolution platform, new divisional structure) over the last few years.
Companies: Statpro Group
For the purposes of the Takeover Code, Edison Investment Research is deemed to be connected with SCISYS plc. Under Rule 20.1 Edison must not include any profit forecast, quantified financial benefits statement, asset valuation or estimate of other figures key to the offer, except to the extent that such forecasts, statements, valuations or estimates have been published prior to the offer period (as defined in the Takeover Code) by an offeror or the offeree company (as appropriate) in accordance with the requirements of the Code.
Consequently we have removed our estimates until the Offer Period ends.
StatPro produced a solid set of interim results, with organic annualised recurring revenue (ARR) growth accelerating to 3.2% from 1.1% at end-2018. The EBITDA margin continued to expand and the group has a widening range of growth drivers in place. After many years of development on the group’s Revolution cloud platform and new divisions in place, which also creates opportunities in the data space, the focus is increasingly shifting onto driving sales. Given the group’s c £57.3m recurring revenue book, the rating (c 16x FY20e) looks attractive, especially in light of the active M&A backdrop in the financial software sector.
StatPro’s interim results reflect growth in Annualised Recurring Revenue (ARR) and EBITDA which result from increasing margins, improved growth in new contract numbers and fewer cancellations. Although there is some influence on the shape of the reported numbers from restatements and some exceptional items, it is clear that progress has continued in the first half. The new divisional structure has given the businesses renewed impetus and it was clear from a number of announcements during the first half that the Group is benefitting from contract wins and extensions which include conversions from Seven to Revolution. The Group also announced an important strategic partnership with J.P. Morgan. We note the increasing momentum behind ARR and profitability growth. The new contracts, partnerships and the integration of acquisitions are underpinning our full year estimates. We update numbers mainly to reflect adjusting items and IFRS 16 as detailed below. We expect StatPro to continue to reflect progress in its strategic delivery and profitability as it adds new contracts and converts more of its existing clients to using the Revolution platform. We also note the £2.5 million of mooted cost savings from that latter process in the coming years.
Interswitch, a Nigeria-based payments firm, has hired advisers to resurrect plans for a stock-market listing in London and Lagos later this year, which may value the financial technology company at $1.3bn to $1.5bn.
Companies: MBT DVO SOG BMN INQO ATM GBP SMS PXS CKT
StatPro has announced that it has secured a conversion from its legacy StatPro Seven software to its cloud-based StatPro Revolution service with a large insurance company. This resulting three-year contract has a minimum value of £1.5 million representing a 77% increase in annual subscription. This large contract with an existing key client brings a good uplift in annual revenue and represents another conversion from Seven that remains within the Group while further endorsing the cloud-focused strategy. As StatPro moves towards the end of its programme of converting legacy Seven contracts into Revolution contracts, the announcement says that there are approximately £5 million of legacy StatPro Seven annual software subscriptions remaining to be converted. The Group remains on course to complete the full conversion of most of those remaining clients over the next two years. As previously flagged, as the process draws to a close, StatPro will be in a position to realise savings in IT costs as well as gaining improved revenues. We make no changes to estimates at present but note this further underpinning of our numbers for this year and next.
Positive newsflow continues, with StatPro announcing a significant £1.5m conversion from its legacy Seven suite to its modern Revolution cloud platform. This follows the recent news of a partnership with JP Morgan’s Data and Analytics business and the acquisition of an ESG research and index business. The deal is significant since it is a large contract with a key client, has an attractive 77% conversion premium and signals that the group is moving towards the end stages of conversions of its legacy Seven contracts. In our view, the shares continue to look undervalued, given the group’s c £56m recurring revenue book and the attractive rating (c 14x FY20e), especially in light of the active M&A backdrop in the financial software sector.
StatPro has announced a partnership with JP Morgan which it believes will be a significant contributor to growth in the future. We see the announcement as both another endorsement of StatPro’s cloud-based Revolution platform and an important new distribution channel for the Group. Initially for five years, the partnership will develop Risk and Performance Attribution capabilities for portfolio managers through J.P. Morgan's data and analytics platform. When launched, the service will be immediately available to J.P. Morgan’s European and Asian multi-asset clients and there will be an early adopter programme for its clients in North America. JP Morgan’s clients will have access to StatPro’s Revolution platform in tandem with JP Morgan’s Fixed Income Benchmark Indices. While we make no immediate changes to estimates given that this partnership has only just been announced, we expect it to support our current estimates as it gets under way.
StatPro has this morning announced the acquisition of a business active in the provision of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) ratings and indices. The deal offers a good fit with the group’s existing client base and product range, and is expected to be modestly earnings-enhancing in the first full year of ownership. We note a similar recent purchase by the London Stock Exchange. We upgrade our 2020E earnings estimates slightly to reflect the deal.
StatPro has acquired ECPI, a small private Italian environmental, social and governance (ESG) research and index business, from its management for a total consideration of c €2.9m (c £2.6m). While the deal is small, we believe there is significant potential to add value by cross-selling the products to StatPro’s large global client base. In our view, the shares continue to look undervalued, given the group’s c £56m recurring revenue book and the attractive rating (c 14x FY20e), especially in light of the active M&A backdrop in the financial software sector.
Alumasc Group plc, the prem ium building products, system s and solutions group, has announced its intention to m ove from the Premium Segment of the main market to AIM. Expected market cap of £33.4m. Expected 25 June 2019
Argentex a UK-based forex service provider founded in 2011 by its current management team which operates as a Riskless Principal for nonspeculative and forward foreign exchange as structured financial derivatives is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected 25 June
Companies: IRR PCIP ANA SLNG SOG ALS BST KWS EMAN ASO
Following a solid performance in 2018, StatPro’s AGM statement confirms that the Group has traded in line with expectations during the first part of the current financial year. This is consistent with the outlook comment in the March FY 2018 results announcement which said that the Group had good visibility into H1 2019 with a solid business pipeline. We also note recent positive announcements on contracts – the latest of which was made earlier this week when the Group announced a three year extension for £2.44 million with a Top 20 Fund Administrator. Management had previously said that StatPro was seeing further growth from its fund administration clients in the first quarter of 2019. In his statement, Chairman Rory Curran reiterates two particular areas of focus: improving EBITDA margins – aided by the move to the new divisional structure – and ensuring that the Delta integration is a success. We leave estimates unchanged while noting the supportive contract announcements.
Trading remains in line and we have maintained our forecasts, which imply 2.7% FY19 organic revenue growth. Management’s two key priorities for FY19 are 1) improving EBITDA margins in all areas of the business and 2) ensuring the Delta integration is a success. In the longer run, margins stand to benefit from the group’s increasing scale and costs dropping out as the group’s three software platforms are consolidated over the next few years. In our view, the shares continue to look attractive, given the group’s c £56m recurring revenue book and the declining rating (c 15x FY20e), especially in light of the active M&A backdrop in the financial software sector. We note that Axioma, a StatPro competitor in the risk space, was recently acquired by Deutsche Börse for $850m or c 8.5x sales.
StatPro has announced a useful extension to a contract with an existing customer – a total of €1.2m over three years from a Revolution Delta client. The news does not cause us to revisit our estimates, but provides a useful boost to forecast security, and demonstrates both client satisfaction and the positive tailwind of ongoing regulatory change. We look forward to hearing more around the time of the AGM later in May.
Induction Healthcare Group plc—a healthcare technology company focused on streamlining the delivery of care by Healthcare Professionals looking to join AIM. Expected raise of £14.58m at 115p, market cap of £34.07m. Expected 22 May 2019.
SDX Energy plc—a North Africa focused oil and gas company, announces its intention to complete a Canadian plan of arrangement under section 192 of the Canada Business Corporations Act and will have shares de-listed from the TSX-V and admitted to trading on AIM. Expected 28 May 2019, anticipated market cap of £76m
Renold plc—a leading international supplier of industrial chains and related power transmission products, announced that it will cancel the listing of the Company from the premium segment and apply for admission on AIM. Expected 06 June 2019.
Alumasc Group plc, the premium building products, systems and solutions group, has announced its intention to move from the Premium Segment of the main market to AIM. Expected market cap of £33.4m. Expected 25 June 2019
Companies: SOLG SCLP SYM TRB ONC SOG JAY PTSG RAI VP/
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CAP-XX Ltd* (CPX.L, 4.5p/£19.9m) | Gfinity plc* (GFIN.L, 3.8p/£28.9m) | MTI Wireless Edge Ltd* (MWE.L, 44p/£38.7m) | Newmark Security plc* (NWT.L, 1.175p/£5.5m)
Companies: CPX GFIN MWE NWT
Crimson Tide has reported a strong set of H1 results evidencing very strong sales momentum backed by long-term contracts and cash flow. H1 sales grew by 40% and EPS by 154%. Net cash has improved to £0.8m at June 2020 from nil at December 2019. The strategic focus on transportation and supermarkets is working well, partnerships are improving routes to market, and there is growing traction from investments in innovation. We have left our forecasts unchanged for now, but recognise positive pressure and have upgraded our target price from 3.1p to 4.3p. We reiterate our view that Crimson Tide’s valuation will be dictated by its ability to convert the significant opportunity rather than short-term metrics. H1 results show the group is nicely on track to do exactly that.
Companies: Crimson Tide Plc
Renalytix has officially commercially launched the KidneyIntelX testing platform with its launch partner Mount Sinai. The test is now fully integrated into the Mount Sinai health system, and goes beyond mere patient testing into a holistic approach to CKD patient support with Mount Sinai’s care delivery, physician education and support and billing pathways. This is a pivotal milestone for Renalytix triggering first commercial testing revenues, and was achieved in less than two years since Renalytix first IPOd in November 2018. It is estimated there are approx. 66,000 Diabetic kidney disease patients at the Mount Sinai health system, representing a significant initial addressable market opportunity. We continue to expect the launch and similar integrations of the KidneyIntelX platform into two further health care systems in FY’21. Simultaneously, Renalytix also announced agreements with LabCorp and an unnamed national medical logistics provider to use additional service centres to support the launch with the collection of blood samples at centres close to home or by primary physicians within the Mount Sinai system. Given the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the impact on physician visits, we believe this is beneficial and aids the use of KidneyIntelX to remotely monitor patients. This also provides a logistics framework to scale this process across multiple territories in the US.
Companies: Renalytix AI Plc
Cloud computing and connectivity provider for financial markets, Beeks Financial Cloud Group (“Beeks”), has reported FY 20A results in line with our forecasts. In our view the impressive growth in revenue and EBITDA delivered demonstrates the group’s defensive qualities against the COVID19 environment. The group also made strong operational progress during the year: FY 20A saw the strategically important (organic) Tier-1 client base reach five, alongside material expansion of the platform and a key new product launch. Management commentary on the outlook is positive, and we maintain our FY 21E earnings estimates following the announcement.
Companies: Beeks Financial Cloud Group Plc
Concurrent has delivered a strong H1/20 trading performance during a volatile period, with revenue of £9.2m (H1/19: £9.5m). Though COVID-19 caused initial uncertainty around FY20 activity levels, Concurrent is a supplier to some of the world's most prominent defence companies in the UK and US and was thus designated an essential defence supplier. Activity levels therefore continued throughout COVID-19 lockdown, with the defence market representing 68% (H1/19: 58%) of revenue in the period. Following strong order intake during H1/20 (record order book in May 2020) we have increased our revenue expectations by £1.7m to £18.7m for FY20. With £10m cash and no debt Concurrent is continuing to invest in R&D and progress its plans to add new hardware and software product ranges into new markets such as AI, software and services.
Companies: Concurrent Technologies Plc
The momentum in new orders and growth in recurring revenues seen in H1A, coupled with continued momentum into H2E, leads us to upgrade our recommendation to Buy. The macro backdrop for the utilisation of cloud services and the inherent risk to network security suggests the market for DDoS protection is only going in one direction.
Companies: Corero Network Security Plc
Ocado’s strong show in the retail business (+52% yoy) is likely to normalise in the coming quarters but the company is well placed to gain retail market share in the UK. The on-boarding of M&S has also been smooth to date and we expect the company to clock healthy sales growth in FY21 as the capacity constraints are likely to be eased. Despite being a healthy business, we continue to see Ocado as an overvalued business.
Companies: Ocado Group Plc
Mirriad Advertising’s H120 numbers show strong top-line progress, up 109% on H119 and 26% ahead of H219. H120 revenues were up over 185% year-on-year in China and Singapore, with market confidence rebuilding. There are very promising new agreements in place with US media owners, with early moves in large adjacent markets, such as music video. There are advanced negotiations ongoing with Tier 1 entertainment platforms. These prospects significantly increase the attraction of Mirriad’s proposition to advertisers. Cash burn is now under £1m per month, with end-August cash of £13.3m (no debt). Market forecasts for FY20–22 are unchanged.
Companies: Mirriad Advertising Plc
WANdisco has raised $25m (gross) through a placing of 3.1m shares at 650p. The proceeds will cover the investment needed to embed LiveData with other cloud vendors while sales from Microsoft Azure build. The accompanying publication of FY19 results enables us to update forecasts. COVID-19 related delays to the Azure revenue ramp lead us to lower FY20 revenues from $28m to $20m; EBITDA losses widen from $5m to $11m. As our recent update note highlighted, WANdisco still expects to sign more than 50 new customers on this platform over the next 12 months. We will introduce FY21 forecasts as visibility on the growth trajectory emerges.
Companies: WANdisco Plc
LoopUp recently unveiled a major extension to its ambitions – the group is aiming to become a leading global provider of telephony “inside” Microsoft’s Teams product. The opportunity is clear and growing, as enterprise customers look to use Teams for “normal” external phone calls, and LoopUp seems well placed to deliver a differentiated offering using its existing infrastructure and knowhow. In this document we provide an overview of the new platform and explain its strategic significance.
Companies: LoopUp Group plc
The FY 2020 results are in line with our expectations and reflect the impact of the previously announced switch from large perpetual licences to recurring annual term licences during the year. Despite the COVID strictures, with its large global partnerships, D4t4 continues to close numerous lucrative data gathering and data management contracts with major blue-chips around the world. It is successfully converting a high proportion of its new sales to recurring revenue contracts, but this will sacrifice growth and earnings in FY 2020 and FY 2021. Nevertheless, with growing recurring revenue base, an exciting pipeline and a very strong balance sheet, D4t4 is very well positioned for continued long-term growth and security.
Companies: D4t4 Solutions Plc
Blackbird is a market-defining provider of fully featured cloud-based professional-grade video editing and production software, and the company’s intellectual property for its technology is protected by patents. The software platform was rebranded as Blackbird in 2018 and the company name changed from Forbidden Technologies in 2019. The business has re-focused on direct infrastructure deals and partnerships with major digital media service providers (OEMs), and the customer base was transitioned from project-based sales to annual licencing contracts in 2019. The Software as a Service (SaaS) business model with annual or multi-year licencing improves revenue visibility, and the contracted order book has grown dramatically. A relatively fixed cost base and sales growth from partnerships with large-scale global OEMs should quickly take the business to profitability over the next two years. Cash burn is low and declining, while the company’s balance sheet is strong, boosted by a fund-raising in November 2019.
Companies: Blackbird Plc
IQE’s revenues grew by 35% year-on-year during H120 to a record £89.9m, taking the group from a £1.9m adjusted operating loss in H119 to a £4.3m adjusted operating profit. We upgrade our FY20 estimates in line with management’s guidance. The resultant 15% revenue upgrade changes the outcome from a loss to £3.1m adjusted PBT.
Companies: IQE Plc
The Supreme Court of the USA (SCOTUS) yesterday voted 7-2 in favour of repealing the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992. Seven justices voted in favour of repealing with the court quoting: “Congress can regulate sports gambling directly, but if it elects not to do so, each State is free to act on its own. Our job is to interpret the law Congress has enacted and decide whether it is consistent with the Constitution. PASPA is not. PASPA “regulate[s] state governments’ regulation” of their citizens, New York, 505 U. S., at 166. The Constitution gives Congress no such power. The judgment of the Third Circuit is reversed.”
Companies: GVC WMH FLTR PTEC
Many of the world’s best and most important products (eg Space exploration, nuclear medicine/power & the internet) were originally invented by the military. It’s happened again – but this time to combat airborne pathogens like Ebola, SARS/MERS and all manner of other biological nasties doing the rounds. You see on 10th December 2018, Kromek was awarded a $2.0m contract by DARPA (research arm of US Dept. of Defense) to develop a vehicle-mounted bio-threat detector. The idea being that this should be able to rapidly identify (within 1 hour) any dangerous germ that might have been released into the environment, say by terrorist groups, organised criminals &/or rogue states.
Companies: Kromek Group Plc