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21 Apr 2022
Gear4music : Tuning Down A Step - Buy

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Gear4music : Tuning Down A Step - Buy
Gear4music (Holdings) PLC (G4M:LON) | 252 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 52.9m
- Published:
21 Apr 2022 -
Author:
Andrew Blain -
Pages:
7 -
Year-end update broadly in line. The Group has reported full year revenue of £147.6m, down 6% year-on-year, with EBITDA of £11.0m, 8% below our forecast (£12.0m). The gross margin remained strong at 27.8% with the cause of the shortfall being a weaker trading performance in February and March.
Subdued consumer environment clouds the outlook. In the year to March 2022A, UK sales increased 5% whilst EU and RoW fell 18%, reflecting Brexit-related supply chain issues, as previously flagged. We understand that the new distribution centres have resulted in a marked improvement in EU trading, however, since the January update the volatile macroeconomic environment has seen trading conditions soften, particularly in the UK.
Changes to forecasts. We revise down our assumptions for growth in both the UK and EU & RoW regions, whilst also incorporating a higher level of operating costs to reflect the well-reported inflation across labour, utilities, etc. The result is a marked downgrade to our earnings estimates (FY22E/FY23E/ FY24E: -13%/-52%/-47%). Management has also indicated that it has invested significantly in stock to support the support the scaling up of its UK hubs which, added to £11m+ spend on acquisitions, has seen a significant increase in net debt. We are not overly concerned by the increase given a) that our forecast had not incorporated c£5m of M&A which had previously yet to complete, and b) the Group’s track record of building inventory levels to support growth aspirations. A summary of forecast changes is shown on page 2.
DCF-driven target price reduced to 602p; remains a BUY. The sector has already been hit hard as consumer confidence deteriorated and valuation multiples are well below historic levels for ecommerce stocks. With a sizeable long-term growth opportunity – c£5bn TAM – our positive view of the business is undiminished.