PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Traction control

Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 07 Dec 23

7th December 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje

Vertu Motors (VTU LN) - Market dynamics drive downgrade

An ongoing correction in used car prices has driven lower gross profit per unit for Vertu in recent months and this is expected to continue in the near term. There has been particular weakness in premium vehicle values. Additionally, higher stocking charges on increased new vehicle supply, has led to lower overall profitability. As a result, we have reduced forecast FY24 adjusted PBT by £8.0m (17%) to £39.3m and FY25 by £3.2m (6.2%) to £48.6m. This downgrade to expectations is indicative of mark

Vertu Motors (VTU LN) - Expanding South West presence

Last week Vertu announced a complementary bolt-on acquisition of four sales outlets in the South West of England for an estimated cash consideration of £6.2m, further expanding its presence in the region. The Group is continuing its strategy of adding scale and strengthening brand partnerships. Today we make FY24 balance sheet and cash flow adjustments for the acquisition, reduce FY24 adjusted PBT by 1.5% due to the timing of the deal and acquisition costs, and add a small upgrade to adjusted PB

Vertu Motors (VTU LN) - Benefitting from scale

Vertu’s interim results to 31 August show record H1 revenue (£2.4b), strong year-on-year adjusted PBT growth of 11.7%, and interim dividend growth of 21.4%.

Vertu Motors (VTU LN) - Positive trading continues

Vertu has released a positive trading update ahead of its interim results for the six months to 31 August.

Vertu Motors (VTU LN) - Good start to FY24

Vertu has released an AGM trading statement confirming a strong first three months of trading in FY24. Ongoing benefits of scale and technology investment continue to generate earnings growth and free cash flows. Aided by the Helston acquisition, trading profit is ahead of prior year levels despite inflationary cost headwinds and the Group is confident in meeting full year market expectations for FY24, so previously upgraded Zeus forecasts are unchanged today. We believe recent public market tak

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Initiation: Market leader trading at cyclical lows

Topps Group is the UK’s largest specialist supplier and distributor of tiles and associated products to the UK’s domestic and commercial markets. Each of the last three years the Group has successfully achieved record revenue in a market that’s seen recent volume declines and regional peers enter administration. Following the right sizing of its business, Topps Group is now well positioned to capitalise on the economic recovery and continue taking share from competitors, supported by its global

HeiQ - Forecast update and Ecolab contract

HeiQ reported its interim results for the 12-months to December 2023, a period characterised by challenging conditions in the markets in which the company currently operates. In-line with the recent trading update, the company reported revenues of $41.7m for FY23 and closed the period with a cash balance of c$10m and a net debt position of $2.2m. We have updated our forecasts to reflect the FY23 results and HeiQ’s outlook in 2024, leaving our revenue forecast unchanged but adjusting gross margin

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

LIBERUM: Tortilla Mexican Grill: Prioritising profitability over roll-out

PROGRESSIVE: Gear4music: FY24 trading in-line and debt reduction ahead of market expectations

At its FY23 results in June 2023, G4M announced its intention to focus on product margins, overhead cost reduction, and efficiency ahead of revenue growth, along with further net debt reduction, in FY24. The FY24 year-end trading update confirms G4M has delivered on these rebalanced priorities, with gross margin rising and net debt almost halving compared with FY23. Cost savings achieved in FY24 and the continued development of higher-margin categories should deliver further upside in FY25E.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Driving growth in automotive software

Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio

Domino's Pizza - Growing the base

Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.

Borussia Dortmund - Helping itself

Borussia Dortmund’s progress to the semi-final of the Champions League brings a further upgrade to profit guidance for FY24. In addition to helping the financial results of the current year, the relative success of German teams against those of other nations in European competitions this season may ensure the club qualifies for the Champions League next season despite currently being outside the top four of the Bundesliga.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

HeiQ - Acquisition, placing and trading update

HeiQ has announced the acquisition of a site in Portugal where the company intends to build a HeiQ AeoniQ production facility with a 3,000 tonne per year capacity. To support the acquisition, the company intends to raise c£2.44m via an equity placing, supported by the issue of a c£1.7m (€1.97m) convertible loan note (largely to management) that will convert upon completion of the raise. We see this as an important step in the development programme for HeiQ AeoniQ. Additionally, HeiQ has provided

Brighton Pier Group - Interim Results

Bright Pier Group’s (BPG) H1 results reflect the highly challenging operating environment, with revenue -9% YoY to £16.2m and Adj EBITDA of £1.4m (H1/22A £3.0m). This decline was driven by weaker consumer demand (falling disposable incomes and low consumer confidence), train strikes and poor weather. Trading in H2 has remained relatively subdued, and as such, we lower our FY23E Adj EBITDA forecasts to £4.2m (from £5.5m). Whilst disappointing, we note that the group remains cash generative and co