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  • 10 Apr 2025

Treatt : Downgrading forecasts after H1 update - Buy


Treatt plc (TET:LON) | 216 3.2 0.7% | Mkt Cap: 127.2m


  • Investec Bank
    • Matthew Webb, CFA

    • 6 pages


 

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Treatt : Downgrading forecasts after H1 update - Buy


Treatt plc (TET:LON) | 216 3.2 0.7% | Mkt Cap: 127.2m


  • Published: 10 Apr 2025
  • Author: Matthew Webb, CFA
  • Pages: 6
  • Investec Bank


TET has released a trading update covering H125 to 31 March. Revenue fell by 11% to £64.2m, from £72.1m in H124. This was caused by weaker US consumer confidence and the ongoing impact of high citrus oil prices. The former has deteriorated further recently, and the latter has remained an issue. TET has therefore been adversely affected by lower final consumer demand for its Premium portfolio, and by lower demand for citrus flavourings as customers have both changed buying patterns and reformulated. Although TET continues to support customers with the latter, this has only ever been a partial mitigation. Citrus remains a core ingredient for soft drinks, but TET needs some relief from a better Brazilian harvest and/or improving US consumer confidence for its prospects to improve. H125 PBT is expected to be c.£3.6m, down from £7.6m in H124. We estimate that this includes a 200-250bps fall in gross margin and some growth in administrative expenses, reflecting investment in sales capability. TET is guiding to a FY25 revenue range of £146-153m. Given the current macro uncertainty, we go the bottom of that range. This would imply a 4.6% fall in FY25 revenue and require 1% growth in H225. It is guiding to a FY25 PBT range of £16-18m, and again we go the bottom of that range. This would imply a c.£3m fall in FY25 PBT and require a c.£1m increase in H225. More happily, TET’s balance sheet has continued to strengthen, ending H125 with £0.9m of net cash. This has enabled TET to announce a new £5m share buyback programme over FY25/26, in line with its capital allocation framework.

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