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  • 24 Jul 2025

Treatt : Profit warning as H2 remains tough - Buy


Treatt plc (TET:LON) | 222 -3.3 (-0.7%) | Mkt Cap: 132.0m


  • Investec Bank
    • Matthew Webb, CFA

    • 6 pages


 

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Treatt : Profit warning as H2 remains tough - Buy


Treatt plc (TET:LON) | 222 -3.3 (-0.7%) | Mkt Cap: 132.0m


  • Published: 24 Jul 2025
  • Author: Matthew Webb, CFA
  • Pages: 6
  • Investec Bank


TET has issued a profit warning for FY25 to September. It now expects FY25 revenue of £130-135m (previous guidance £146-153m) and PBT of £9-11m (previous guidance £16-18m). We reduce our revenue forecast to £130m (previously £146m) and our PBT forecast to £9m (previously £16m). Our FY25E PBT downgrade is therefore 44%. We now assume a 5p DPS. Our new forecasts imply H225 revenue of c.£66m, slightly up on the £64m posted in H125 but declining at a worse rate (-19%) versus H224 than the H1 decline of -11%. Our new forecasts imply H225 PBT of £5.4m, better than the £3.6m posted in H125 but declining at roughly the same rate versus the prior year as in H1 (down c.50%). We forecast an operating margin of 7.2% for FY25E, versus 13.0% in FY24. This equates to 8.4% in H225, better than the 6.0% in H125 but declining at a slightly worse rate versus the prior year. The reduction in FY25 guidance is partly due to the continuation of the issues that affected H1, namely weak consumer confidence in the US and the impact of high prices on citrus demand. TET has also seen slower than expected conversion of the order pipeline and a more competitive pricing environment. The combination of lower-than-expected profits and a faster completion of the buyback takes our FY25E net debt forecast to £5m. TET has not offered any guidance for FY26, other than to say that it expects to benefit from the recent fall in citrus prices and that the pipeline has strengthened during the year. With TET having noted the slower than expected pipeline conversion we would also expect some of this to come through in H126. Nonetheless, given that the market environment remains challenging, we think it prudent to forecast only modest growth in profit in FY26E and cut our PBT forecast by 46% to £9.5m (previously £17.5m).

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