Hybridan Small Cap Feast 20-07-2022

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: The Russian gold miner Petropavlovsk Plc Ord has left the London Stock Exchange. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a leading supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to th

Premium positioning underpins growth

Strong 25% sales growth, a further 24% advance in membership numbers and important progress at the Masterton Bond facility were key features of a trading update released by The Artisanal Spirits Company (ASC) today.  Furthermore, the company reiterated its ambition to double sales revenue between FY2020 and FY2024. With a focus on the ultra-premium category, a fast-growing global membership base and embedded value in its maturing whisky stocks - £430m at retail - we continue to argue that fair v

Excellent H1 update; executing to plan

Artisanal’s H1 trading update reads very well. Revenue growth is reported at c.25% vs our full year working assumption of 18%. Membership growth has also remained healthy, equating to 14% on an annualised basis and suggesting consumers at the ultra-premium end are continuing discretionary expenditure. Operational commentary is positive as are reassurances around no meaningful supply/stock availability issues. With no change to full year expectations we maintain our forecasts but see the risk on

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 24/05/22

*A corporate client of Hybridan LLP Dish of the day Joiners: EnSilica (ENSI.L), has join AIM. EnSilica provides an end-to-end service for the design and supply of mixed signal ASICs, outsourcing certain elements such as the wafer fabrication of the manufacturing and packaging to third parties - otherwise known as a Fabless Semiconductor Model. ASICs are Integrated Circuits or semiconductor chips developed for a particular use or product rather than for general purpose usage. ASICs help

Strong trading start to the year – cheers!

Today’s AGM statement from the Artisanal Spirits Company (ASC) reports a strong start to the 2022 financial year for both sales revenue and global membership numbers, which grew by above 30% and by 25% year-on-year respectively. While the second half of the year will face tougher comparisons, the company expects full year sales revenue to match current consensus expectations. We leave our revenue forecasts unchanged at £21.6m in FY2022 Revenue increased by 30% in the four months to end-April co

AGM – further evidence of good trading momentum

Management continue to deliver strong performance metrics. The latest being with today’s positive AGM update. Revenue for the first 4 months is up >30% and membership growth is tracking comfortably ahead of our full year assumption, albeit comps do become stiffer in H2. Investors should also welcome reassuring commentary around the new supply chain facility and effective navigation of recent lockdown restrictions in China. With no change to full year expectations at this juncture we keep our for

Premium maiden finals; strong start to FY22

Maiden finals are excellent. Revenue has come in ahead of guidance given in January, gross margin is up and significantly, member lifetime value grew 55% to £1,445 resulting in a LTV:CAC of 22x. The balance sheet is in good shape and FY22 has got off to a good start. We make no forecast changes but see upside risk. Overall, ASC is firmly on track to double revenue by FY24. It is executing well against strategy and there is significant room to grow the global membership base / market share in the

Serving up a strong growth outlook in 2022

Full year FY2021 results for The Artisanal’s Spirits Company (ASC) delivered both sales revenue growth and member numbers ahead of market expectations. Moreover, a sharp rise in membership towards the end of FY2021 gave the company the “best possible start” to the current year and raises our confidence in the group’s ability to deliver another year of around 20% higher net sales revenue. We leave our expectations for sales revenue, gross profits, and EBITDA unchanged. And we continue to argue

The Big Book 2022 - Extended Coverage & Best Ideas

The Big Book 2022 includes our highest conviction Best Ideas for 2022. In 2021 our Best ideas outperformed by 24%, extending our track record (>10% outperformance on average over the past decade). We have again divided our coverage into six distinct themes to create our Matrix. We have added two new categories this year: ESG and Pricing Power, both of which will be fundamental investment themes for 2022. We look forward to discussing our ideas with you.

Ahead of expectations Y/E update; excellent membership growth

A positive, ahead of expectations Y/E trading update today. It builds on a series of good news since the June’21 IPO and should be very well received. Revenue has come in 3% ahead of our forecast resulting in 20% y/y growth. The standout feature is the excellent growth in total members at 18% vs our 9%. This is significant as it is a leading indicator of future growth. We lift our FY21 revenue by £0.5m to £18.0m but retain our EBITDA estimate. We hold off adjusting FY22 forecasts but the high st

Well positioned for strong sales growth in FY2022

ASC announced around 20% sales growth in a FY2021 trading update released today. Sales growth was similar both in the UK and internationally, which tends to confirm the efficacy of the company’s global approach to business development as well as the strength of its online offering. Strong membership growth is important - not just as a driver for current growth, but also for future sales. While UK and International member numbers increased by 20% and 15% respectively in FY2021 as a whole, it

Positive Asia operations development

Positive news around ASC’s Asian operations this morning, whereby the company has lifted its shareholding in both the China and Japan JV’s. This is in keeping with one of the objectives set out at the time of the IPO. Strategically the moves further position ASC favourably to capitalise on future growth in these two significant territories. Financially the cash cost is a modest £0.4m but we estimate a 2 year payback via a lower minority dividend going forward. We make no P&L changes. Overall, in

Further positive strategic news

Directionally another positive strategic update from Artisanal this morning. It has issued a brief RNS confirming the launch of the J.G. Thomson brand – an award winning blended whisky offering which is separate from the core Scotch Malt Whisky Society proposition. Strategically this in keeping with the aim of expanding the addressable market and further illustration of Artisanal delivering against its IPO plans. We make no forecast changes but from a sentiment perspective investors should welco

Membership numbers further strengthen

A brief but positive RNS reach this morning. It highlights membership growth surpassing 30k and finalisation of the new supply chain facility. Both developments are further illustration of delivery against IPO plans. Particularly pleasing is the membership metric, which with the busier Xmas period still to come, is ahead of our full year working assumption. We hold off making forecast changes but clearly post today’s membership news, the upside risk has strengthened. We use this update to also r

Cenkos: The Week that was - Stocks in focus this week are Fulcrum, Mears, NWF and Serco

Enclosed is our weekly round-up of news and updates from the professional services sector.

Strong H1 and Start to H2 Drives Further Upgrades

Decent closure to the year; tougher times ahead!

Sainsbury’s preliminary FY21/22 results were in line with the street expectations. The lfl sales came in at -2.3% yoy, as the positive momentum in clothing was offset by weakness in grocery and general merchandise. Management’s profit guidance for FY22/23 is weaker than the consensus. We expect the retailer to continue with the cost savings plan and reinvest a portion to remain competitive, especially among the big four players. We will be trimming our FY22/23 estimates.

Better placed to tackle the forthcoming headwinds

Tesco’s Q1 trading performance was a mixed bag. The UK and ROI retail business was softer than expected but overall sales were stronger than our estimates. Wholesale business Booker and Central Europe led the pack. The company witnessed market share gains in almost all geographies. However, management has accepted that cost pressure is posing a challenge. The annual profit outlook has been maintained. We will trim the financial estimates slightly.