Our view – strong growth in the face of Covid19 fully justifying strategy whilst highlighting resilience of business
Companies: Capital Drilling
Anglo American (AAL LN) – Green Hydrogen Consortium with BHP, Fortescue and Hatch | Arc Minerals (ARCM LN) –– Sale of CASA Mining asset for US$5m loan note plus royalty agreement worth up to $45m | Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – 2020 Production guidance | Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – Appointment of Eskom trouble-shooter Ms Mokgatle as an Independent Non-Executive Director | Capital Drilling (CAPD LN) – After-tax profit rises 34% in 2019 | Cora Gold* (CORA LN) – £2.9m equity raise | Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Letseng small diamond tender succumbs to anti-virus precautions | Highland Gold (HGM LN) – Capital projects update
Companies: AAL ARCM AAU bmn CAPD CORA GEMD HGM
Capital Drilling (LSE: CAPD) this morning released its 2019 full year financial results, having already provided a trading update on 16 January 2020 including revenue and utilisation figures.
Capital Drilling (LSE: CAPD) this morning provided its Q4/2019 trading update and its unaudited FY/2019 consolidated trading update. Capital achieved full year revenues of US$114.8 million, at the mid-point of US$110-120 million guidance. Revenues for the quarter were broadly in line with our expectations. Lower ARPOR due to greater proportion of exploration contracts and single-shift operations was offset by higher utilisation rates. Using this updated revenue figure, we now estimate EBITDA of US$26.6 million for FY2019, a margin of 23%, and profit after tax of US$9.8 million.
Capital Drilling (LSE: CAPD) this morning provided its Q3/2019 trading update. The key ARPOR (average monthly revenue per operating rig) metric (see fig 1.) is below our forecasts but revenue is slightly ahead (due to non-drill revenue from other businesses including MSA labs). There are also new contract wins starting in Q4 which has led us to slightly upgrade our FY/2019 revenue forecasts to US$115.5 million.
Capital Drilling (LSE: CAPD) this morning announced the signing of binding agreements to provide a full range of mining services at Allied Gold’s Bonikro Gold Mine in Côte d'Ivoire alongside a US$3 million strategic investment. The new contract win marks a strategic move for the company, including for the first time providing load and haul operations, with control of the mine’s heavy mining fleet alongside five drill and blast rigs. Capital is working with Bonikro management to refine the mine plan following Allied’s recent acquisition, with a view to transitioning the agreement to a five year contract in H1/2020.
Net Income after tax of US$5.1 million was 39% higher than our forecast of US$3.7 million, primarily due to a lower than expected depreciation charge for the half year and lower financing charges. EBITDA for the half year of US$12.6 million was 5% below our forecast of US$13.2 million. Capital’s EBITDA margin of 23% is in line with both Tamesis estimates and H1/2018 despite the additional overheads in establishing the West African business. Cash from operations of US$10.5 million was 22% lower than our expected US$13.3 million – attributable to a larger than expected change in working capital.
Capital reiterated it is on track to achieve full year revenue guidance of US$110-120 million, and whilst the headline revenue number for the half year is slightly below our expectations, we are confident that the company will be able to achieve guidance. The newly announced contract wins (described below), and some H1 seasonal effects in West Africa, imply a stronger H2 for the company. We are assuming an EBITDA margin of 24.2% for the half year, implying H1/2019 EBITDA of US$13.2 million, or 3.0x current EV on an annualised basis. We estimate US$5.5 million of free cash flow generated for the half year, equivalent to a 12.1% yield, which well covered the US$2.0 million dividend payment in May.
Capital reported it is on track to achieve full year revenue guidance and we are confident that the company will be able to deliver the US$29.3 million quarterly average revenue for the remainder of 2019 to hit the mid-point of guidance (US$110-120 million). The quarterly result is slightly below our forecast at the revenue level due to seasonal effects in Q1. Encouragingly, the company reported increased profitability from key contracts over the period – reinforcing our investment thesis from the FY/2018 results that Capital continues to outperform at blue-chip contracts with top tier mining companies including Kinross, Anglogold Ashanti, Resolute, Acacia, and Centamin. The West African hub continues to grow, highlighted by an exploration contract win with Golden Rim Resources (ASX: GMR) in Burkina Faso. The company is seeing robust tendering activity – any further contract wins will be incremental to the published guidance. Metals prices remain strong, and Capital is best placed to take advantage of any increased exploration spending by the majors and mid-tiers to replace depleting ounces or tonnes. We value Capital Drilling at 91p/share, representing 5x forecast 2019 EV/EBITDA of US$29.3 million and a 1.8x multiple on the current share price. Our forecast 2019 free cash flow is US$13.9 million, implying a 15.7% yield which easily covers the current dividend yield of 3.2%. At the current share price, Capital feels materially undervalued – trading at 2.7x 2019 EV/EBITDA, a strong balance sheet, covered dividend and further growth opportunities in the pipeline.
Capital Drilling (LSE: CAPD) this morning provided its FY 2018 annual financial results, having already provided a trading update on 17 January 2019 announcing revenue and utilisation figures.
Capital Drilling (LSE: CAPD) this morning announced its Q4/2018 trading update. Revenue for the quarter of US$30.5 million led to full year revenues of US$116.0 million, above the top end of 2018 revenue guidance of US$105 to US$115 million and Tamesis estimates of US$110.2 million. ARPOR decreased to US$181,000 for Q4/2018 from US$198,000 in Q3/2018, primarily reflecting new contract commencements utilising the exploration fleet, however this decrease was offset by increased utilisation, rising to 59% in Q4/2018 from 53% in Q3/2018.
The Company has announced two contract awards with Centamin and Sama Resources, which are both highly significant for different reasons. The contract extension with Centamin underwrites continuity of a substantial proportion of group revenues over a 5-year period, while the new contract with Sama is the first in the Cote d’Ivoire and highlights the potential of West Africa, since the Company strategically repositioned one-third of its rigs in this growth region. While we retain existing forecasts, these contracts greatly improve revenue visibility and therefore should increase investor confidence. Further contract awards would have a significant drop through to profits and offer potential forecast upside. The shares offer good upside to our 85p price target. These contract awards should be taken well.
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Strix has released an AGM statement indicating that trading in the early part of the year has been solid, the new financing facilities have been put in place, product development is on track with 14 new products released during the year and the factory move remains on schedule and to budget. The current trading period is an important one and the scheduled trading update 23rd July should provide more colour on the underlying performance as well as the early indications from the new products already released and the outlook for those that are scheduled to be released in H2. The resilience of the Strix business has been reaffirmed during the current situation with financial guidance having been maintained and the final dividend committed to, a 10% increase yoy.
Companies: Strix Group
Despite some initial integration issues with WatBio (since resolved), Filta generated strong organic growth (+16% YoY) and delivered results in line with expectations. Given ongoing uncertainty around the pace at which self-isolation measures will be eased, we maintain our Hold rating, and will look to reinstate forecasts once visibility improves.
Companies: Filta Group
Much has been written about the effects of the virus on the world and on the stock market. Here is one analyst’s take on some of the likely impacts on the way we should look at companies. This article was originally produced as a blog, “10 Changes Post Virus”, which was published a few weeks ago.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX DNL GDR NSF PCA PIN PHNX PHP RE/ RECI STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA
TClarke's trading update is refreshingly positive in all key aspects of investors' current COVID fears and hopes. The decision to fully pay the 2019 final dividend sustains income attractiveness (4% yield on the final alone), the avoidance of trading losses in the teeth of the industry lockdown period (after a profitable Q1/20) demonstrates resilience whilst maintenance of net cash balances through April and May illustrate a robustness of cash flows despite reduced activity levels. It has also maintained the order book and has moved quickly to re-structure the cost base ensuring that margin recovery is not entirely dependant upon market improvement. Prudently and we believe reasonably, we are removing all forward forecasts until visibility on revenue recovery and productivity rates into H2/20 become clearer. However, TClarke's operational strengths, financial robustness and cash coverage of dividend in the most testing of circumstances gives us renewed confidence to uphold a Buy recommendation.
FY results ahead due to a waiver of the management bonuses and final dividend is proposed. Current trading is impacted by COVID but there are clear signs of improvement.
Judges Scientific, the group focused on acquiring and developing companies in the scientific instrument sector, has announced the acquisition of UK based ‘Health Scientific Ltd', a world leading maker, and global exporter, of calorimetry instruments. The initial cash consideration equates to £5.3m, with a further £2.0m cash earnout if profits hit £1.22m in 2020. The business generated £4.4m of revenue and an adjusted EBIT of £0.88m (20% EBIT margin) to April 2019, and is expected to have an even stronger year to April 2020, suggesting a ‘6x EBIT takeout multiple' if the earnout target is hit.
Companies: Judges Scientific
In the midst of a crisis, Judges has made what we think is an excellent acquisition in a high growth sector (lithium battery testing). Heath Scientific fits all of Judges’ acquisition criteria and is a business that is well known to management. We think that the current crisis may well throw up more opportunities and, with its strong balance sheet, Judges is well positioned to capitalise on this. FY20E EPS increased by 1.8% and FY21E by 3.2%. DCF based TP raised from 5245p to 5380p. CY21E PE 26.3x. Buy.
New Equity Driving Growth
TP Group's FY19A results were in line with our expectations, with strong organic revenue growth of +16% YoY. Whilst the business remains resilient, with a large net cash position and a record order book, COVID-19 has caused uncertainty around the timing of some pipeline opportunities. Therefore, in line with a number of other companies, TP Group is withdrawing market guidance. We also withdraw our forecasts and place our recommendation Under Review.
Companies: TP Group
Costain has raised £100m of gross proceeds. We reduce FY 20 and 21 FD EPS by 45% and 59% due to the dilution.
Companies: Costain Group
In its trading update for the five months to the end of May, XP Power confirmed that it continues to see strong demand from semiconductor and healthcare customers. With demand from the healthcare sector likely to moderate in H2, and continued uncertainty in other end-markets, we maintain our revenue forecasts for FY20/21. We reduce FY20e EPS by 2.7% to reflect short-term increases in air freight costs.
Companies: XP Power
Avation is a lessor of 48 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. Intra-day yesterday, the group announced that, as a result of the present uncertain backdrop caused by COVID-19, the Board had withdrawn from the previously announced strategic review and formal sale process, and that it was no longer in active discussions with any interested parties. The key reasons behind this were 1) the present uncertainty meaning that an attractive valuation was seen as unlikely to be achieved at this present moment in time and 2) the distraction of the process in the day to day operational activities of the business.
Petards supplies advanced security and surveillance systems to the Rail, Defence and Traffic Technology markets. Intra-day yesterday, the group confirmed that its RTS Solutions subsidiary had secured a multi-year renewal agreement for the provision of software support services to one of its major rail customers.
Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has released full year results to 31 December 2019, alongside providing an update on progress against the present COVID-19 backdrop. In line with the market updates provided in February and April, group revenue in the year increased by 3.2% to £7.1m, whilst revenue from continuing operations, excluding the Onboard business that was disposed of in the year, increased by 7.2% to £6.7m, driven by traction being gained with new products and services. The gross margin in the year increased by 280bps to 53.9% reflecting the greater proportion of software and service income. This resulted in a trading loss after tax before exceptionals of £89k, which post exceptionals of £412k that predominantly related to the disposal of OnBoard, resulted in a loss after tax of £501k. As previously reported, the year-end net cash position stood at £850k, which reflected an increase of £554k in the year; this post £1.1m of new product development expenditure and cash costs associated with the disposal.
Companies: AVAP TST PEG
Filta Group (Filta) announced FY’19 results pretty much in line with our numbers. Adjusted EBITDA was £3.2m, vs. our £3.3m estimate, and revenue was £24.9m, vs. our £25.1m expectation. These figures confirmed that the integration of Watbio was back on track and the business was trading well until COVID-19 struck. Most of Filta’s customers are currently closed, but the company is optimistic that they will bounce back one distancing restrictions are lifted. We have removed our 2020 forecasts.
Today's AGM trading statement guides for 1H20 profit and cash generation to be at least as strong as 1H19. On-line market share gains and swift management action on cost supports a £7.2m EBIT for 1H20.
Trading has recovered from the initial hit from COVID-19, with improving B2B activity adding to strong B2C trends. Revenue has been better than previously expected at both DX Freight and DX Express, with this now running at 10-15% below normal levels for this time of the year, compared with the initial 33% impact at the commencement of the lockdown.
Companies: DX Group