Hybridan Small Cap Feast 15/11/22

Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Rosneft Oil Company GDR has left the Standard Segment of the Main Market. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Long Term Assets Limited (LTA), a Guernsey investment company, intends to join the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. The initial portfolio is made up of a diversified range of assets, recently valued in the region of £160m, comprising a complete selection of the Disruptive Capital’s family office private asset po

Interims: Consistent solid cash generation

AdEPT has delivered a resilient H1 with Managed Services seeing 3% organic growth and supply chain delays reducing EBITDA margins by just 1%. H1 FCF of £4.4m amply covered cash interest paid of £1.1m and residual lease payments of £0.3m. Macro headwinds cause us to pull back FY23 EBITDA by 7% but the company will remain solidly cash generative and comfortably able to deal with forecast interest rate rises. As such the 17% FCF yield offers great value.

AGM: Strong cash generation prompts dividend hike

The strong organic cash flow of FYMar22 has continued into the first half of FY23. With the last of the earn-outs paid out in July and with a high recurring revenue profile (74%/sales) AdEPT is hiking its dividend. We now forecast 5.0p for FY23 from 3.0p, which is a yield of c. 4.5%. The increased pay-out remains consistent with the programme to deleverage the balance sheet. AdEPT still expects net debt/EBITDA to fall below 2x within 12 months and remains well within its covenants. Management ta

Strong FY22 FCF generation to continue in FY23

FY22 is in line with expectations with the notable figure being FCF before exceptionals of £10.2m. Managed services organic growth of 1% was held back by lockdowns and equipment shortages impacting non-recurring revenues, despite organic recurring revenue growth of c. 7%. We leave FY23 forecasts unchanged. With its updated strategic plan looking to accelerate organic growth and deleverage the balance sheet, the stock remains extraordinarily cheap on 5x P/E and a mid-teens FCF yield. Success on b

Strong Q4 order intake, though headwinds persist

AdEPT ended FYMar22 with a “markedly stronger Q4 order intake” and revenues and adj. EBITDA broadly in line with consensus. This suggests Managed Services achieved mid-single digit organic revenue growth despite the pandemic and hardware shortages. FCF was impacted by largely one-off costs of £2m (restructuring, strategic review and inventory build). Supply chain issues are likely to persist in FY23 with additional headwinds such as higher NI contributions and general macro uncertainty. We deem

The Big Book 2022 - Extended Coverage & Best Ideas

The Big Book 2022 includes our highest conviction Best Ideas for 2022. In 2021 our Best ideas outperformed by 24%, extending our track record (>10% outperformance on average over the past decade). We have again divided our coverage into six distinct themes to create our Matrix. We have added two new categories this year: ESG and Pricing Power, both of which will be fundamental investment themes for 2022. We look forward to discussing our ideas with you.

H1 tracking in line. Cloud business building

AdEPT has produced a resilient H1 despite some continued CV19 & supply chain headwinds in the period and expects to meet FYMar22 expectations. What we think the market is missing here is the extent to which AdEPT has built out its Cloud Services offerings over the recent years. The move deeper into high growth areas such as SD-WAN, hybrid cloud and VoIP has the potential meaningfully to accelerate growth going forward both with existing and new customers. Cloud Centric Strategic revenues now rep

Solid FY21, prospects look even better for FY22

In line results demonstrate an impressively robust performance, where for instance Managed Services sales (81%/Group) are down just -3% y/y. What’s more, by achieving +8% Managed Services sequential growth, trading visibly improved through FY21 and so points to even better prospects for FY22. ADT also made strategic progress - growing ‘Cloud Centric services’ revenue notwithstanding Covid (now ~43%/sales), driven by ADT‘s deep domain expertise in Education, resulting in the Group providing new r

Small Cap Feast

Semper Fortis Esports* recently announced its intention to IPO onto the Access Segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Semper is a multi-operational Esports organisation focusing on gaming technology solutions, brand enhancement and high growth team infrastructures. The company plans to raise £2.5m to develop their three core areas of establishing an esports team, forming partnerships with brands for sponsorship and B2B consultancy services. The Board are highly experienced in spor

Back on the M&A trail

AdEPT has acquired Datrix Ltd – a London based Enterprise Managed Services provider, specialising in cloud-based networking, communications, and cyber security solutions. Key to highlight is how Datrix is a growing business (sales +8% y/y) – benefitting from its expertise in next-generation technologies, which broaden ADT’s core competencies in attractive new areas. We see how this addition is particularly attractive for larger (more complex) customers – enabling ADT to offer a more end-to-end s

Success in US market delivers strong H1

Bango has reported strong H1’23 results with 88% revenue growth (we estimate c.25%+ organic), ARR increasing 63% yoy, and a further $8m of annualised cost savings executed with Bango on track to deliver a transformational H2 profit performance. Bango’s Digital Vending Machine (‘DVM’) secured 2 new US wins, including 1 of the top 5 US operators (now working with 3 of the 5), providing access to 200m+ US consumers. Given these operators are currently on the bottom tier of license revenue (we estim

Journeo - Strong H1/23A Interim Results

Journeo has released a strong set of interim results in-line with the prior trading update and our recently upwardly revised expectations. Revenue increased 146% YoY to £21.8m and PBT similarly increased substantially to £1.7m driven by organic growth in all divisions and the new contribution from the Infotec acquisition. We leave forecasts unchanged following the two recent upgrades. Journeo looks compelling on an FY24E Adj P/E of 10.1x vs peers on 13.2x, and we reiterate our 1-year price targe

Record H1'23 with continued momentum into H2

Allenby Capital TMT Update - 25.09.23 - SPSY.L, BIRD.L, TRAK.L, ENET.L

Please find below our weekly update covering themes that we feel that are of interest to investors and participants in the small and mid-cap TMT sector as well as commentary on recent newsflow.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 26 Sep 23

26th September 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment ob

Acquisition of MNA and PCS

National World has announced the acquisitions of Midland News Association (MNA) and Press Computer Systems (PCS) for £11m in cash and we raise our 2024 EPS estimate by +16%.

Taking the Upper Brand: Brands Sector Overview

The earliest dated brand has long been contested; the majority point to Kongō Gumi, a family run construction company that specialised in Buddhist temples in Japan; its documented record of ownership goes back to 578 AD. Like Kongō Gumi, several different brands have withstood the test of time, albeit without then same degree of longevity. The term brand originates from the 1500s and means "to burn" in Ancient Norse and was initially used to mark cattle for ownership. This practice can be consid

Artificial intelligence in UK biopharma and healthcare 11/09/2023

Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to accelerate at full speed, first by imitating the workings of a human brain and now it is drawing concepts of evolution, sometimes with synthetic data, artificially manufactured for training purposes or for privacy protection, and sometimes not even with human intervention. In this note, we examine how AI is being developed and applied by the NHS and UK mid/small cap companies for the benefit of human health and wellbeing. AI in drug discovery and devel

A cheap call option on landing whales

Morning Note – 27 September 2023

Fonix Mobile - Robust progress in FY23, EFCF and DPS +6% and +3% ahead

In today’s FY23 results, Fonix has announced gross profit and adjusted EBITDA in line with the +4-5% upgrades at the trading update in July, underlying EFCF +6% ahead of our previous forecast, FY23 DPS +3% ahead, and FY24 trading in line with expectations. FY23 TPV of £268.1m reflects robust double-digit yoy growth from commercial customers, and gross profit as a % of TPV has increased to 5.6% from 5.1% in FY22. New customer wins include Channel 4, Bauer Ireland, RTÉ and Wireless Radio Ireland,

Morning Note – 26 September 2023

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 12 Sep 23

12th September 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment ob

tinyBuild (TBLD LN) - H1: Declining profits and cash

H1 revenue fell 19%, gross margin narrowed by 18 percentage points and Adj EBITDA fell to -$1.2m from $9.9m a year ago. The company impaired $27.2m of development costs and intangible assets.

IQGeo Group - H1 organic growth of +83%, 4-5% revenue & EBITDA upgrades

In today’s H1 results, IQGeo has announced H1 revenue growth of +124% yoy to £20.5m, adjusted EBITDA of £2.7m, and EFCF of +£0.3m. Excellent execution of the land and expand strategy scaled exit ARR +64% yoy to £16.9m, net recurring revenue retention increased to 114% from 108% in FY22, and recurring revenue grew +61% yoy to £7.2m. The +122% yoy growth in services revenue to £8.8m reflects vigorous demand from customers to implement and leverage the differentiated solutions, and as customers ext