PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: H1 23: Improved visibility and earnings quality

Aferian’s H1 23 results (to 31 May) demonstrate significant improvements in both revenue visibility and earnings quality. The group continues to deliver impressive growth in software revenues, which now contribute 60% of sales. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) once again reached record levels, driving improved revenue quality and visibility. The release signals management’s confidence in the full-year outlook, with net debt forecast to have peaked and improved performance from the devices business

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: $4m placing, FY23E guidance reiterated

Aferian has successfully concluded the placing of 26m new ordinary shares at a price of 12p/share, raising $4.0m before expenses. The proceeds are to be used for general working capital purposes, replacing the need for further drawdown of the group’s shareholder loan from Kestrel Partners. Aferian has also confirmed that trading remains in line with its update from 28 June, and management has reiterated FY23E guidance. Overall, we view these announcements as positive for the group and investor s

Small Cap Feast 25 07 2023

Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Announced ITF 12 July: Substrate Artificial Intelligence, an artificial intelligence company based in Spain that creates, buys and scales companies around AI in diverse sectors such as fintech, agritech, energy, human resources, and health, intends to join the Access Segment of the AQSE Growth Market. Announced ITF 6 July: Blackpoint Biotech plc, a medical cannabinoids company established to fulfil gaps in

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Trading in line; forecasts reintroduced

Aferian’s update yesterday, for the six months to May 2023, confirmed that trading remains in line with comments provided in the 31 May commentary. With demand in the 24i business remaining strong, earnings quality and visibility continue to improve. Furthermore, the release signals management’s expectation of a return to growth (sequentially) in devices in H2 23. The cost base has been significantly reduced, and the release also confirms that the group remains in compliance with its banking cov

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Trading in-line, additional funding secured

Aferian’s update, released today, signals that group trading remains broadly in line with commentary in the FY22 results announcement. 24i’s (software) solutions continue to see strong demand, offset by the market-driven challenges facing the Amino (devices) division. In mitigation, management has identified an additional c.$3m of annualised cost savings and remains confident in Amino’s ‘strong’ medium-term sales pipeline. The update also confirms that the group remains in compliance with covena

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Record software performance; hardware challenges persist but may be abating

Aferian’s FY22 results release heralded a record performance from the software business, while confirming that market conditions in the Amino (devices) segment remain challenging. With the increasing contribution from software, Aferian’s revenue quality and visibility continues to improve. Commentary on the outlook is positive towards 24i, and the business has been restructured to address ongoing challenges in devices. Guidance of FY23 group revenue and EBITDA being significantly below FY22 leve

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Hardware-related headwinds persist

Aferian on Friday provided an update on current trading, reaffirming the previous commentary around the FY22 outcome and describing strong early momentum in FY23 for the 24i (software) business. However, customer destocking in the Amino (devices) business has been more prolonged than previously expected and previously signalled. Management now expects FY23 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be ‘substantially below its original expectations’. We withdraw our FY23 estimates in advance of further det

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 10 Mar 23

10 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 20/12/2022

Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: PCF Group has left AIM. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Quetzal Capital, to be renamed Tap Global Group, intends to join the AQSE Growth Market. Tap Global is an innovative and fully integrated provider of crypto settlement and fiat banking. It provides its customers with access to several major crypto exchanges through Tap Global’s app, allowing them to purchase up to 15 crypto assets and store them directly in the customer’s wallet. Tap Global also offe

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: A strong end to FY22

Aferian has released a positive update on trading for the year ending November 2022. The group finished the year in line with the Board’s recently-lowered expectations, with FY22 revenue now expected to be approximately $91m, with record levels of ARR and a stronger-than-expected cash balance. Management reiterated its expectation of reporting adjusted EBIT in the $7.8m-$8.8m guidance range. We leave estimates unchanged ahead of the full results announcement due in February, and continue to beli

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 24/10/22

Joiners: Eastinco Mining (ATN.L) has joined AIM. Leavers: Ted Baker has left the London Stock Exchange. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Ithaca Energy, a UK independent exploration and production company focused on the UK North Sea, intends to join the Premium Segment of the Main Market. Ithaca Energy is one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the UKCS, ranking 2nd by resources and 3rd by production. During the six months ended 30 June 2022, Ithaca Energy's average daily prod

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Customer de-stocking hits device shipments

Aferian has this morning given a trading update for the year to 30 November 2022. Revenue and profit will both be impacted by a shortfall within the devices business as customers reduce inventory levels, ironically due to an easing of concerns over supply chain logistics. We reduce our estimates for both FY22E and FY23E following the announcement. The group has also announced that it has been in discussions around a ‘significant acquisition opportunity’, which has been aborted.

Aferian: Strong software performance, abating headwinds in devices

Aferian’s H1 22 results show a strong performance from the software business, plus signs that headwinds impacting the devices business may be abating. This performance was accompanied by record exit Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), driving improved revenue quality and visibility. Both business units continue to report strong operational progress, and management commentary on the outlook for the second half is positive. We revise estimates following the announcement and continue to believe t

Aferian: Market backdrop remains favourable

With the global economic situation increasingly uncertain, we have taken the opportunity to review recent industry forecasts on the streaming video market. The message remains positive: the industry continues to expect robust growth in the near/medium term, despite the challenging macro backdrop. We have also taken a deep-dive into Netflix Inc’s Q1 22 release, which revealed that the industry leader in streaming video is facing a number of headwinds. In our view, one difficult quarter for Netfli

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 21/06/2022

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Visum Technologies seeking admission to The AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Due 30 June. LifeSafe Holdings, a fire safety technology business with innovative fire safety products, intends

Audioboom Group - Q1 24 revenue growth of +11%, FY24E forecasts reiterated

Audioboom’s FY23 results and Q1 trading update show Q1 24 revenue growth of +11% yoy, $6.7m of March 2024 revenue marking the platform’s highest revenue month since May 2022, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E forecasts. Following the focus on new initiatives through FY23, the platform is now in its strongest ever operational position, with a record 1.1bn monthly ad impressions created in March 2024, record global audience reach of 38.6m unique global listeners in Janua

Alphawave Semi: FY23 trading update, amended forward guidance

Alphawave Semi has reduced guidance for FY23 and prospectively citing lower revenues from China, changes in expected revenue recognition from long-term contracts, and continuing investment in R&D. The share price has reacted negatively, giving up most of the gains since the trading statement at the end of January. Current consensus, which is a good match for pre-existing guidance, should be reduced, most likely following release of the FY23 results and full 1Q24 trading update due on 23 April. H

Crimson Tide - FY23 reports +15% revenue; investment phase complete

Crimson Tide has reported FY23 results to December in line with expectations, with additional operating leverage benefitting updated FY24 and maiden FY25 and FY26 forecasts. FY23 delivered +15% revenue growth to £6.2m at 86% GM, of which over 90% is recurring, and maintained £5.8m ARR even after unexpected customer churn in the year as we previously noted. Crucially, the Group achieved milestone adj EBITDA profitability of £0.4m at 7% EBITDA margin, and edges closer to adj PBT profitability expe

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Devolver Digital (DEVO LN) - Rebuild year

Devolver Digital encouragingly delivered 2023 results slightly ahead of expectations and provided a steady medium-term outlook that leads us to reiterate our 2024 Adjusted EBITDA estimates. Longer term, the company is now planning to further develop its two major planned titles, Human Fall Flat 2 and System Era's next major new release. We now expect those major titles to be released in 2026 rather than 2025, meaning we lower our 2025 Adjusted EBITDA forecast to $10.6m from $17.6m but introduce

Morning Note – 15 April 2024

Checkit - New product launch and contract wins

Checkit has won contracts with two customers worth at least £417k over the three-year lives of the contracts, confirming its ability to upsell to its existing customer base and supporting our forecasts. Having trialled the new technology with multiple customers, Checkit has launched its Asset Intelligence module, which uses advanced analytics and machine learning to enhance customer sustainability, reduce costs and increase revenue.

Soft growth patch

Auction Technology Group - H1/24 Trading update

ATG’s H1/24 trading statement indicates revenue for the six-month period to 31 March 2024 was $86m, a 6% increase on H1/23 (1% organic growth), helped by the addition of the EstateSales.Net (ESN) marketplace last year, which performed well in the period. Total marketplace revenue increased 2% (organic), driven by growth in value-added services (VAS) and event fees, offsetting a decline in commission revenue (mainly through lower asset prices).

Morning Note – 17 April 2024

Touchstar - Full year results: Recurring revenue strategy delivers further profit growth

Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning's full year results reflect the outcome of a multi-year strategy coming to fruition for the group, with recurring revenue growth of 8.7% delivering overall revenue growth of 7.1% and in turn a 60% increase in PBT to £0.7m. Over the past few years, Touchstar has focused on enhancing the returns from their product offering through a shift towards recurring software licen

It’s not what you sell, it’s the way that you sell it

This report is intended to help UK small- and mid-cap investors gain a better understanding of software companies’ routes to market, and to highlight how one of the most important facets of the way in which they grow and deliver value is routinely ignored.  We examine sales processes for six UK-listed companies and one that has recently been taken over, and consider why they have followed their respective paths.

Engage XR Holdings - Expanding from FY23, FY24E forecasts reiterated

ENGAGE XR’s FY23 results show revenue and net cash in line with the February trading update, EBITDA ahead at -€4.0m vs -€4.5m due to the split of cash outflow between opex and working capital, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E forecasts. FY23 revenue for the core ENGAGE platform was unchanged vs FY22 at €3.3m, as H2 23 revenue was impacted by the record seven-figure contract announced in February shifting to 2024, and several enterprise customers scaling back renewals

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

FY23 results in line – and a flying start to FY24

ENGAGE XR has published its FY23 full year results, the headlines of which reflect the details provided in February’s post close trading update in terms of revenue, EBITDA loss and net cash. ENGAGE XR has signed a rapidly growing number of strategic and commercial partnership agreements with companies invested in promoting the VR medium and the development of corporate metaverses.