PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: H1 23: Improved visibility and earnings quality

Aferian’s H1 23 results (to 31 May) demonstrate significant improvements in both revenue visibility and earnings quality. The group continues to deliver impressive growth in software revenues, which now contribute 60% of sales. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) once again reached record levels, driving improved revenue quality and visibility. The release signals management’s confidence in the full-year outlook, with net debt forecast to have peaked and improved performance from the devices business

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: $4m placing, FY23E guidance reiterated

Aferian has successfully concluded the placing of 26m new ordinary shares at a price of 12p/share, raising $4.0m before expenses. The proceeds are to be used for general working capital purposes, replacing the need for further drawdown of the group’s shareholder loan from Kestrel Partners. Aferian has also confirmed that trading remains in line with its update from 28 June, and management has reiterated FY23E guidance. Overall, we view these announcements as positive for the group and investor s

Small Cap Feast 25 07 2023

Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Announced ITF 12 July: Substrate Artificial Intelligence, an artificial intelligence company based in Spain that creates, buys and scales companies around AI in diverse sectors such as fintech, agritech, energy, human resources, and health, intends to join the Access Segment of the AQSE Growth Market. Announced ITF 6 July: Blackpoint Biotech plc, a medical cannabinoids company established to fulfil gaps in

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Trading in line; forecasts reintroduced

Aferian’s update yesterday, for the six months to May 2023, confirmed that trading remains in line with comments provided in the 31 May commentary. With demand in the 24i business remaining strong, earnings quality and visibility continue to improve. Furthermore, the release signals management’s expectation of a return to growth (sequentially) in devices in H2 23. The cost base has been significantly reduced, and the release also confirms that the group remains in compliance with its banking cov

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Trading in-line, additional funding secured

Aferian’s update, released today, signals that group trading remains broadly in line with commentary in the FY22 results announcement. 24i’s (software) solutions continue to see strong demand, offset by the market-driven challenges facing the Amino (devices) division. In mitigation, management has identified an additional c.$3m of annualised cost savings and remains confident in Amino’s ‘strong’ medium-term sales pipeline. The update also confirms that the group remains in compliance with covena

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Record software performance; hardware challenges persist but may be abating

Aferian’s FY22 results release heralded a record performance from the software business, while confirming that market conditions in the Amino (devices) segment remain challenging. With the increasing contribution from software, Aferian’s revenue quality and visibility continues to improve. Commentary on the outlook is positive towards 24i, and the business has been restructured to address ongoing challenges in devices. Guidance of FY23 group revenue and EBITDA being significantly below FY22 leve

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Hardware-related headwinds persist

Aferian on Friday provided an update on current trading, reaffirming the previous commentary around the FY22 outcome and describing strong early momentum in FY23 for the 24i (software) business. However, customer destocking in the Amino (devices) business has been more prolonged than previously expected and previously signalled. Management now expects FY23 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be ‘substantially below its original expectations’. We withdraw our FY23 estimates in advance of further det

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 10 Mar 23

10 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 20/12/2022

Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: PCF Group has left AIM. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Quetzal Capital, to be renamed Tap Global Group, intends to join the AQSE Growth Market. Tap Global is an innovative and fully integrated provider of crypto settlement and fiat banking. It provides its customers with access to several major crypto exchanges through Tap Global’s app, allowing them to purchase up to 15 crypto assets and store them directly in the customer’s wallet. Tap Global also offe

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: A strong end to FY22

Aferian has released a positive update on trading for the year ending November 2022. The group finished the year in line with the Board’s recently-lowered expectations, with FY22 revenue now expected to be approximately $91m, with record levels of ARR and a stronger-than-expected cash balance. Management reiterated its expectation of reporting adjusted EBIT in the $7.8m-$8.8m guidance range. We leave estimates unchanged ahead of the full results announcement due in February, and continue to beli

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 24/10/22

Joiners: Eastinco Mining (ATN.L) has joined AIM. Leavers: Ted Baker has left the London Stock Exchange. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Ithaca Energy, a UK independent exploration and production company focused on the UK North Sea, intends to join the Premium Segment of the Main Market. Ithaca Energy is one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the UKCS, ranking 2nd by resources and 3rd by production. During the six months ended 30 June 2022, Ithaca Energy's average daily prod

PROGRESSIVE: Aferian: Customer de-stocking hits device shipments

Aferian has this morning given a trading update for the year to 30 November 2022. Revenue and profit will both be impacted by a shortfall within the devices business as customers reduce inventory levels, ironically due to an easing of concerns over supply chain logistics. We reduce our estimates for both FY22E and FY23E following the announcement. The group has also announced that it has been in discussions around a ‘significant acquisition opportunity’, which has been aborted.

Aferian: Strong software performance, abating headwinds in devices

Aferian’s H1 22 results show a strong performance from the software business, plus signs that headwinds impacting the devices business may be abating. This performance was accompanied by record exit Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), driving improved revenue quality and visibility. Both business units continue to report strong operational progress, and management commentary on the outlook for the second half is positive. We revise estimates following the announcement and continue to believe t

Aferian: Market backdrop remains favourable

With the global economic situation increasingly uncertain, we have taken the opportunity to review recent industry forecasts on the streaming video market. The message remains positive: the industry continues to expect robust growth in the near/medium term, despite the challenging macro backdrop. We have also taken a deep-dive into Netflix Inc’s Q1 22 release, which revealed that the industry leader in streaming video is facing a number of headwinds. In our view, one difficult quarter for Netfli

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 21/06/2022

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Visum Technologies seeking admission to The AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Due 30 June. LifeSafe Holdings, a fire safety technology business with innovative fire safety products, intends

Sondrel Holdings - Siemens Holding

Following the news on Friday 1 December that Siemens has, subject to completion, disposed of its 11.2% holding in Sondrel at 6p per share, we see a significant buying opportunity. We believe the sale was for Siemens AG organisational convenience rather than in relation to Sondrel’s fundamentals. We have summarised the history of the relationship, our view on the rationale for the sale and touch on the latest industry outlook. We reiterate our 1-year price target of 74p which is just shy of the h

Intercede - Record contract win

Intercede has secured a major contract win with a large US Federal Agency, $6.6m of which represents licence fee for immediate recognition, with a further $1.4m in maintenance and support. The contract win lifts FY24 forecasts substantially higher, on the back of a previous upgrade last month, by +31% in revenue and +186% in EBITDA, with further improvement in FY25 and FY26 from associated support and maintenance. The order for Intercede’s MyID Credential Management Solutions came after a rigoro

CML Microsystems+ (CML, House Stock at 388p) - Growth in new and existing markets

LIBERUM: Cerillion: Learnings from the CMD

PROGRESSIVE: CML Microsystems: The unusually reliable semis co delivers, again

CML’s interim results to 30 September show that, despite challenging markets, the group continues to make progress. Revenue improved by 5% to £10.6m, up from £10.1m in H1 FY23. Profit from operations was flat at £1.9m, prior to third-party acquisition related costs from the MwT transaction of £0.3m and share-based payments. Cash balances at the period-end were £20.95m (31 March: £22.26m), after significant expenditure on product development, share buybacks and the FY23 final dividend. With the M

Morning Note – 4 December 2023

iomart - Solid interims demonstrate stability

iomart has delivered interims to September in line with unchanged expectations, alongside a small vertical focused acquisition, demonstrating the benefit of organic and acquired growth. 18% group revenue growth included cloud services growth of 20%, which comprised modest organic growth, price adjustments after last year’s strong energy price movements, and some slowdown in organic non-recurring revenue, before the benefit of the Concepta (August 2022) and Extrinsica (June 2023) acquisitions, ad

Morning Note – 5 December 2023

TPXimpact 1H24 Interim Results

TPXimpact reported a strong 1H24 performance and maintains FY trading guidance; we make some small tweaks and overall retain our expectations.

Journeo - The Merry Journey Continues

Journeo has released a positive trading update following strong business activity in October and November. The company references strong trading in its core Fleet and Passenger Systems divisions, as well as the newly acquired Infotec and MultiQ divisions. We expect that the investment made in the Infotec factory to facilitate higher production speed has contributed to clearing the prior backlog and the ability to win new orders. We believe the positive trading momentum will continue into FY24E a

Morning Note – 6 December 2023

Concurrent Technologies - FY23 trading update – revenue growth accelerating

Concurrent Technologies has released a FY23 trading update stating revenues in the current year are expected to be ahead of market expectations. Strong order intake has continued throughout the year and the significant investment in product development undertaken to target design-in wins has brought new customers (especially large Defence sector prime contractors), larger average single order sizes, and an increasing diversification of end markets. So far this year, Concurrent Technologies has w

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 1 December 2023

The Joy of Techs - Cavendish Technology quarterly sector note

£23.3bn in enterprise value has been returned to AIM technology shareholders over the past six years in the form of 51 public to private takeouts, including 10 in 2023 alone with the takeovers of Smoove* and Tribal announced in early October. With UK valuations appearing cheap and looking more attractive to potential acquirers, we take a moment to reflect on the trends of corporate and private equity bidders targeting AIM-listed technology companies going back to 2017, through the uncertainties

Morning Note – 28 November 2023